Schwarzenegger's chances if he were a natural-born citizen?

Let's say, for the sake of handwavium, that Arnold Schwarzenegger was born in the US while his parents were visiting, and returned to Austria a few months old and then had his OTL life. Alternately the 'natural-born citizen' clause is less of a big deal ITTL, possibly with a George Romney-related PoD.

Now a hugely popular AH meme that's even penetrated the mainstream media is the idea of President Schwarzenegger. But here's the question - what would Arnie's chances be? Would he ever stand any chance of getting into the Oval Office? If he did, what's his best route? I'm tempted to say that right now would be his best shot - the 2012 GOP field IOTL is bleak and lifeless, and he has a media profile already high enough to rival Obama's.
 
Betraying my huge ignorance here: but isn't the guy considered a RINO by the nutter brigade that's so essential in the US primary process?
 
BG is correct, but it isn't just nutters who think that way. Centrist Democrats like Newsom and Feinstein would be much more fiscally conservative than Ahnuld, with the political experience to enforce their will. One reason why Whitman lost so badly to Brown last year was because from her campaign it was fairly clear she'd end up the same way as Ahnuld did: neutered and rendered a powerless figurehead.
 
He's not really well-positioned to run. He got into office in very late 2003 (assuming same career except for birthplace), so at absolute, borderline ASB best he could replace Cheney on the Bush 2004 ticket (Cheney was thinking of leaving, according to Cheney, so believe that if you want). If not then, when? 2008 is a terrible time, that's for last chancers and people who want to gear up for 2012. And in 2012 he's out of office, having faced a lot of problems and setbacks politically, and having failed to fixed California's massive problems (whether it's his fault or not, eh, but there it is). Plus there's the problem of getting through the primaries. Maybe 2008 on the McCain ticket? I don't see that winning, though.
 
He's not really well-positioned to run. He got into office in very late 2003 (assuming same career except for birthplace), so at absolute, borderline ASB best he could replace Cheney on the Bush 2004 ticket (Cheney was thinking of leaving, according to Cheney, so believe that if you want). If not then, when? 2008 is a terrible time, that's for last chancers and people who want to gear up for 2012. And in 2012 he's out of office, having faced a lot of problems and setbacks politically, and having failed to fixed California's massive problems (whether it's his fault or not, eh, but there it is). Plus there's the problem of getting through the primaries. Maybe 2008 on the McCain ticket? I don't see that winning, though.

Wasn't Bush thinking of replacing him with Bill Frist?
 
He'd be less derided than Palin though.

The only reason Palin was selected was a tactical decision to try and sweep up the feminist bloc that usually votes democratic, playing on the 'Obama stole Hillary's chance'-meme. Replacing Palin with another male (white) figure simply isn't going to work, and is borderline ASB.
 
Sorry, Reagan was the very definition of a Hollywood Republican.

You misunderstand. I meant that Schwarzenegger was one of that type of Hollywood Republicans distinct from Reagan's brand of it. They're both Hollywood Republicans, just different types.
 
The only reason Palin was selected was a tactical decision to try and sweep up the feminist bloc that usually votes democratic, playing on the 'Obama stole Hillary's chance'-meme. Replacing Palin with another male (white) figure simply isn't going to work, and is borderline ASB.
It's far from ASB. McCain personally wanted Joe Liberman as VP, and Charlie Crist was another strong contender. Palin was actually quite an odd choice, made apparently without a ton of thought.

Arnold's problem is that he's not very conservative, and McCain was trying to shore up those credentials. On the positive side, he's a huge American Success Story, is a charismatic guy who's good with the media, and a 'maverick'.
 
It's far from ASB. McCain personally wanted Joe Liberman as VP, and Charlie Crist was another strong contender. Palin was actually quite an odd choice, made apparently without a ton of thought.

Arnold's problem is that he's not very conservative, and McCain was trying to shore up those credentials. On the positive side, he's a huge American Success Story, is a charismatic guy who's good with the media, and a 'maverick'.

By without a ton of thought you mean that she was selected without an in-depth background check into the type of politician she is. However the choice to select a female was a very well-thought out tactical one. Again, replacing Palin on the ticket with any male figure is going against the strategy the McCain campaign had decided upon.

Personally I think Arnold's best bet, assuming lack of butterflies as we seem to be doing, would be in 2012.
 
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