Schlieffen Plan cut off early, race to the sea sooner

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Deleted member 1487

POD: Moltke realizes that Paris is out of reach, stops short of the Marne, sets up defenses and starting the race to the sea earlier. Somme river and Amiens, Abbeville are reached/taken.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/56/Western_front_1914.jpg
Edit: Let me flesh this out a bit. Moltke recognizes the increasing exhaustion the campaign is taking on his armies as they press hard for the Marne. Supplies are low and the armies are out marching resupply. He worries that going after Paris will overstretch his weakened forces and they will bog down on the forts, while suffering a counter on the exposed flank to British or French reinforcements. His sleepless nights finally get to him and on August 31st orders the following marching orders: First, all cavalry divisions are to detact from their army groups and head to the channel. The fifth, fourth, and third armies are to dig in on the Aisne and Vest rivers, while the fifth army contributes some formations to cutting of Verdun. The first and second armies are to head west to the Channel and seize Ameins and Abbeville while setting up on the Somme. Each army is to detact a corps which then will occupy the Channel cities Boulogne, Calais, and Dunkirk, while being supported by the various cavalry divisions.
These orders are followed, which enables the advancing armies to seize the coast by September 5th. However, further south, the orders have a different effect. The Allied forces see that the German armies have stopped and split. There are now German troops setting up on the Somme and Aisne rivers, which significantly extends the amount of ground each army must cover. The time seems ripe to counter attack while the Germans are resting before their final push. Joffre readies his battered armies to attack and cajoules the Brits to help, despite their panic at being cut off from the channel ports. The Allied armies move in for the battle of the Aisne on september 3rd. Ultimately the battle proves fruitless as the entrenched Germans are not shifted, despite casualties to both sides. The Brits become panicked when it is realized that the Germans were stopping to set up permanent lines and cover the troops seizing the Channel ports. This delays reinforcements as panicked politicians hold back troops to counter the 'expected' German invasion, which never materializes. The Allies then proceed for the next several weeks to break the German lines and liberate some valuable territory, but the entrenched enemy proves too strong to budge and the French artillery proves too weak to dig him out. German troops are stopped at Verdun and settle down into trenches. Ultimately a major reorganization takes place on both sides, as the various besieged forts in the German rear fall and the line solidifies near the front. Troops are able to be freed up and sent into the reserve for other use or rest, while the units in France are replenished with Landwehr and newly trained recruits. The end of the beginning and the calming down in the West allows for some machinists to be returned to work and train replacements while less vital men fill their places in uniform. In the East the fighting continues and intensifies as units are transferred eastward, including several that head south to prop up the bloodied Austro-Hungarians.
In the Allied camp several things has happened. First, the openning campaign proves to be the end for Joffre, as he has let the Germans seize the major industrial regions of the north without so much as a success in the field. The BEF stays somewhat smaller for 1914-early 1915 as more troops are held in Britain. The professional army is essentially wiped out in the various counter attacks lauched to penetrate the German lines. The Front stretches from Compeigne to Montdidier and the Somme, while further south Verdun is still threatened. The French have the bulk of the line and are less able to launch attacks as much of their industry is now in German hands. Nevertheless, the attacks to liberate France still occur well into 1915, but they produce little of value, save for securing Verdun. The Russians are in a bad way, as more Germans are present, especially supporting the Austrians. 1915 shapes up to be a difficult year for the Allies.

This scenario means the Uboots are farther forward, Britain commits for forces at home, as fears of invasion hold them back for defense, the German lines are shorter, which means more troops, earlier for the east front. More of France's industry is in Germany's hands and perhaps the High Seas Fleet has extra basing options to harrass Britain. It also means greater mining of the channel, which complicates traffic for supply. Overall much better for the Central Powers and means Verdun becomes a focal point earlier, as the Germans now have extra troops for pinching it off. But the allies have shorter lines too, which means it takes some pressure off France and allows for a greater reserve. The Allies are unlikely to have greater success attacking that OTL, as the ground is essentially the same, but if the Kinder Mord doesn't happen, then Germany has more troops and is better off in the deal.

Is this possible and what does this mean for the course of the war into 1915? Maybe Falkenhayn wins out over Ludendorff and gets to hold on to the chief of staff position?
 
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MrP

Banned
Well, as you doubtless know, OTL's Race was a series of outflanking manoeuvres, so this is asking more perspicacity of poor old Moltke the Younger than he managed IOTL. However, that's far from impossible. I'd say that this could lead to the removal of Joffre way earlier. ITTL he hasn't presided over a final stopping and pushing back of the Germans, merely been given a breathing space. So the French army will still launch attacks similar to those of OTL, hoping to push the Germans back. The loss of industry is definitely going to impact France's performance - but I don't know how much.

The BEF could be ok. S-D's (presuming Grierson still dies ITTL) II Corps was a bit worn out from having done all the fighting, and Haig was pretty wary of German flanking manoeuvres right up till everything calmed down. That said, Haig repeatedly kept his corps safe at the expense of S-D's chaps, so the Germans might be able to destroy II Corps with a good attack.

Moltke's early realisation of the futility of going for Paris and action may mean that he isn't replaced at all - at the time - as he suffers no breakdown. It does raise the question why he realised it so late in the day - but we can always say ITTL he did, and just didn't say, I suppose.

I dunno if this scenario improves basing options for the HSF's heavy units, but it certainly gives more forward options for torpedo-boats, U-boats and so on, all of which means higher Entente casualties in the Channel.
 
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Since Germans are better at maneuvering their troops and now they control more French territory, which mean more resources for them and less for the French and since the channel was in a large part an operational area of the British now you will have the BEF reduced to around 50 000 troops and the French overstretched so the Germans next offensive will be even more successful and they might even win the war.
So the Great War might end up being a 1-year conflict ending with German victory in spring 1915.
 

Neroon

Banned
Check out "Operation Unicorn". Moltke pulls the plug and races to the sea 3 days earlier than OTL in it after deciding that the Schlieffen Plan can no longer succeed.
 
Winning the 'Race to the Sea' is my favorite PoD for CP victory.

The most boring reason, and thus most important, is logistics and rear-area security. IOTL the BEF supply lines sat behind the very narrow Dover St with its guns, minefields and naval forces, as such these shipping lines were secure from anything other than a handful of uboats and light forces. What's more these shipping lines were short, a short hop across the Channel and short rail/road trip to the front. If the Germans hold Pas De Calais the next chokepoint is Cherbourg/Portland Bill, which is too wide to by covered by guns and minefields and naval patrols will either have to be more thinly spread than OTL or get far more resources than OTL, both of which will come at the expense of something else. In addition the shipping lines will be much longer (triple?) so to supply the BEF more ships, crews and fuel is needed at the expense of something else. All of this sucks at the British war effort even before a single shot is fired, I don't know what effect it would have, but I could imagine the BEF would have to be smaller because of these factors.

Making the Dover St and eastern Channel a naval battleground give even more advantages to the Germans. Apparently 1/2 of London's food was shipped up the channel, inot the Thames and offloaded in London. If this was stopped there wasn't enough rail capacity to feed London's population and Admiral Bacon of the Dover Patrol suggests that a partial evacuation would be needed to ensure people could get fed. Stopping or seriously interrupting would be achieveable if the Germans held the Pas de Calais by gunnery, mining/counter-mining and naval action from uboats, destroyers and torpedo boats with the odd cruiser thrown in to liven up the mix.

This is a battle the Brits would have to win, and there is no doubt in my mind they would. They could throw more/better light forces, monitors, coastal guns, mine countermeasures, at this threat like they did to the much smaller German lodgement on the Belgian coast IOTL. But IOTL the Brits didn't establish superiority over the German coastal position until 1916/7, and I doubt they'd be able to do it much quicker if the Germans held a much larger section of coastline. And again, just like the boring logistics, these Brit naval forces would have to come at the expense of something else, perhaps BEF divisions or the Dardenelles campaign which gave Russia something to hope for in 1915.

What happens to France and Russia while Britain is putting a decent proportion of its resources into sea control on its own doorstep for the first 2 years of the war? In 1917 the French army mutinied and the Russian govt fell, I can't imagine these things happening later if the strongest ally was preoccupied with its own problems until well into 1916.
 
Winning the 'Race to the Sea' is my favorite PoD for CP victory. The most boring reason, and thus most important, is logistics and rear-area security. IOTL the BEF supply lines sat behind the very narrow Dover St (snip)


Riain,

Or for Christ's sake! We collectively shot down that fantasy of your's years ago. I'm sure the thread is still around somewhere...

Apparently 1/2 of London's food was shipped up the channel, inot the Thames and offloaded in London. If this was stopped there wasn't enough rail capacity to feed London's population...

And we shot that bit too. This part doesn't even pass the sniff test. London had a larger population in WW2 and it was fed by substantially the same rail net even though the Germans held the entire Channel coast.

You're like these people who keep flogging away at Sealion or a Japanese invasion of Hawaii. Your Cape Gris idea doesn't work and it doesn't divert anywhere near the resources you claim. Hell, I remember that one of your claims had the Germans passing surface raiders down the Channel simply because they held the cape. When called on it, you backpedaled from that silliness fast enough, so why can't you let the rest of it go too?

This would be funny if it weren't so sad.


Bill
 

Deleted member 1487

Riain,

Or for Christ's sake! We collectively shot down that fantasy of your's years ago. I'm sure the thread is still around somewhere...
Which thread was that? It might have a significant impact on this POD.

You're like these people who keep flogging away at Sealion or a Japanese invasion of Hawaii. Your Cape Gris idea doesn't work and it doesn't divert anywhere near the resources you claim. Hell, I remember that one of your claims had the Germans passing surface raiders down the Channel simply because they held the cape. When called on it, you backpedaled from that silliness fast enough, so why can't you let the rest of it go too?
This would be funny if it weren't so sad.
Bill

I get that it won't be a war winner in and of itself, but it does negatively effect the British war effort and helps German naval units to slip into the channel and harass British supply efforts to France. I get that you have an issue with Riain, but I would still like to run with this POD and don't think he is totally off the mark. Well, maybe about the Gallipoli bit, as it was actually easier to ship supplies from India to the Middle East, but it would prevent a greater commitment to France so early, as troops would be held back over invasion fears and the longer supply lines would initially prevent a large force from being fielded until the rail net is expanded. Earlier in the war the British supply situation was a mess and had a break down in 1916 until a logistics expert from the civilian world was brought in to reorganize and fix the hash the military had made of things.

As for the Belgian food production, anyone have any links about that? And would the Belgian forces survive this change of the invasion?
 
Which thread was that? It might have a significant impact on this POD.



I get that it won't be a war winner in and of itself, but it does negatively effect the British war effort and helps German naval units to slip into the channel and harass British supply efforts to France. I get that you have an issue with Riain, but I would still like to run with this POD and don't think he is totally off the mark. Well, maybe about the Gallipoli bit, as it was actually easier to ship supplies from India to the Middle East, but it would prevent a greater commitment to France so early, as troops would be held back over invasion fears and the longer supply lines would initially prevent a large force from being fielded until the rail net is expanded. Earlier in the war the British supply situation was a mess and had a break down in 1916 until a logistics expert from the civilian world was brought in to reorganize and fix the hash the military had made of things.

As for the Belgian food production, anyone have any links about that? And would the Belgian forces survive this change of the invasion?

The British are going to want the Channel Ports back for multiple reasons. So they are likely to be more on the offensive in late 1914 and early 1915.
This may even incl. attempts to outflank the Germans by sea. The offensive power of the BEF in this period does not impress me so they are highly likely to suffer very heavy casualties for meagre gains.

In Operation Unicorn I had 3 Belgian divisions (but only artillery for 1 division) evacuated by sea from Ostend at the end pf Oct. King Albert had considered surrendering but was persuaded at the last minute to evacuate.

Loss of the Pas de Calais means France's only remaining coal is some lignite fields in the south. I tried to calculate the additional population under German occupation in OU using 1911 department data and it came to ~ 2M (though that incl. the Germans retaining Reims). Most of what heavy industry remains will be clustered around Paris and will be vulnerable to German naval activity off the mouth of the Seine disrupting British imports.
 

Deleted member 1487

With the Unicorn TL (which I have been following regularly and enjoy, but never found the POD of until now) there seems to have been a major German naval victory that evened the fleet numbers. I don't see this happening with the work of naval intelligence. I do see a more active German fleet, but not a dominant or much more successful one that seems to be the driving point behind Operation Unicorn.

Also does anyone have any info on the Belgian grain production in Flanders?
 
Shoot it down all you like, I've read the material, argued it over (admittedly not here) and formed an opinion I'm happy with.
 
POD

With the Unicorn TL (which I have been following regularly and enjoy, but never found the POD of until now) there seems to have been a major German naval victory that evened the fleet numbers. I don't see this happening with the work of naval intelligence. I do see a more active German fleet, but not a dominant or much more successful one that seems to be the driving point behind Operation Unicorn.

Also does anyone have any info on the Belgian grain production in Flanders?

Technically the POD of Operation Unicorn is that Hipper decides to post a division of DNs outside the Jade Bar before the Battle of Heligoland Bight instead of after as per OTL. These battleships emerge out of the fog behind Beatty and damage the machinery of Princess Royal complicating his withdrawal. Then 1st SG comes into action. Seydlitz is very badly damaged and Hipper wounded but Princess Royal is crippled. Beatty very reluctantly abandons Princess Royal and escapes but maintains that Seydlitz was destroyed.

The wounded Hipper is sent by the impressed Kaiser to visit Moltke and explains to him the importance of the Channel Ports which previously he had not grokked.
 
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