These are scenarios for various religions dominating 95-99% of the world's population. I hope nobody minds the arbitrary guesses about the population and tech levels. They aren't judgement calls about the religions. In some scenarios, the same events might lead to different religions being dominant, or the world might be almost evenly divided among different religions.
On a scale of 1-10, with 10 being the best, how good are these?
Which would you like to see more of?
Which would you like stories about?
Islam
Moslems sack Constantinople in 718 and win at Tours in 732. Mongols convert, conquer Japan in 1280, colonize the Americas.
2005 World Population: 5 billion
Tech Level: OTL 2000
Sikhism
Japan doesn't give up the gun. Sikhs have more Great Gurus after the eleventh one, and become more evangelical. When the Chinese dynasty falls, Japanese empire conquers China. Sikhs gain political, social and military ideas from Japan and from Europe, and Sikh-dominated India expands. By 1800 the Sikh Empire defeats the Japanese Empire and takes over Australia and other Pacific territories. Sikhs become dominant in Chinese and Japanese politics and culture.
In the eighteenth century, European explorers and slavers bring back disease from Africa to Europe and the Americas, and pandemics sweep through Europe and North America, weakening them and the Papacy. British colonies in the Americas fail or become autonomous, and are unable to expand. In 1821 the czar is assassinated, the heirs are too young, the Russian empire collapses and breaks up into many tiny, feuding kingdoms. Sikhs borrow ideas about science and technology from European ex-patriates and radicals fleeing the chaos in Europe.
In the early nineteenth century, Sikhs discover gold in Australia and South Africa, and expand their colonies. They also discover gold in Alaska, then colonize California and discover gold there. The California kingdom expands north and east.
Sikhism expands through Africa, and the Sikh-controlled South African Empire becomes the predominant economic force in Africa by 1870. By this time the British and French are beginning to re-colonize the Americas, but the Sikh-dominated countries of Africa and Asia are as strong as the European powers. Alaska controls Canada and Siberia; California controls western N. America and Mexico; South Africa dominates Africa; Australia dominates the Pacific. India itself only covers OTL Pakistan to Thailand, but dominates the rest of Asia.
By the time Europeans reach California in 1900, it's already a Sikh-dominated powerhouse. In 1970, a nuclear war between England and South Africa results in a South African victory.
2005 World Population: 2 billion
Tech Level: OTL 1970
Jain
Several strong kings in India convert to Jainism, it spreads to the Assyrian empire, which survives and adapts. Judaism spreads east instead of west, both it and Jainism change and divided into different sects. Roman empire doesn't fall but gets new dynasties periodically, Mongols never become prominent, Islam never arises.
2005 World Population: 7 billion
Tech Level: OTL 2020
References:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=5975&highlight=jainism
Hinduism, Buddhism
Hellenistic Greeks colonize India, convert, it spreads through Hellenistic Egypt and S. Europe.
2005 World Population: 1 billion
Tech Level: OTL 1800
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=14543&highlight=hellenistic
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=4880&highlight=hellenistic
Buddhism
Buddhism becomes predominant in China. In the 1430s, a Buddhist-dominated China continues exploring Africa. Pandemics from Africa decimate Europe. The Hundred Years' War and the religious wars last even longer.
The Papacy is weakened. Asians explore the Americas in the 1700s and eventually their descendants conquer and colonize Europe by 1900.
2005 World Population: 1 billion
Tech Level: OTL 2020
Reference, not used in this scenario:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=5778&highlight=hellenistic
Confucianism/Taoism
Chinese explorers in the 1420s discover gold in Africa, Alaska; later in Australia and California; worse plagues and wars weaken Europe.
2005 World Population: 4 billion
Tech Level: OTL 2000
Greco-Roman Paganism
An emperor codifies this as the official religion of Rome; Islam never arises; the Persians are devastated by plagues which allow Rome to take over the Mideast. Islam never arises, and the Mongols never become prominent in history. The Huns invade China and Japan instead. The rulers of Egypt spread it through Africa.
2005 World Population: 3 billion
Tech Level: OTL 1900
Cult of Isis
Romans don't try to conquer Egypt, and save their resources for holding Europe, especially Germany. Christianity not made official. Rome doesn't fall, Islam doesn't arise. Mongols, Egyptians and Africans convert. Egyptian-influenced Isis worshippers in N. Africa discover Brazil and spread their beliefs into the Americas.
2005 World Population: 3 billion
Tech Level: OTL 1800
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=26778&highlight=egypt
Neo-Pagan
John Dee and followers flee to Panama, build canal, control shipping, expand territory, get gold and pirate loot, modified paganism spreads, incorporates Native American elements. European colonization is slowed by John Dee's followers supporting Natives against the Spanish. Europe devastated by the Second Hundred Years' War (1484-1588), a Second Bubonic Plague, Ebola pandemic from Africa. British Civil War drags on and gets worse, the Parliament building is bombed. The Papacy is weakened. Occultism and pseudosciences become very popular in Europe. A strong, Neo-pagan Mexico colonizes Europe in the 1900s.
2005 World Population: 2 billion
Tech Level: OTL 1900
Mandeans
Christianity not made official; Constantine never born, and the empire collapses in civil wars, 300-320; Persia converts to Mandeanism; it spreads through Central Asia and China; some Vikings convert and take it to the British Isles where a local king converts, and he is this timeline's version of Albert the Great; but there's no equivalent of William the Conqueror to invade from Europe, so England retains its independence. Popes and Patriarchs put restrictions on literacy and scientific research. Plagues and wars get worse. A really bad run of rulers die young, and with the resulting chaos, the Dark Ages don't end until about 1800. When the Americas are discovered in 1892, the Aztec empire has fallen, and the remaining populace embrace Mandeanism willingly.
2005 World Population: 1 billion
Tech Level: 1900
Zoroastrianism
The religion is heavily modified and an evangelical form spreads through Persia beginning around 200 BC. Romans never form a Republic. Persians defeat Greeks and Etruscans in many wars. It spreads through China during a period of civil wars.
2005 World Population: 2 billion
Tech Level: OTL 2000
Bahai
Civil War in 1810s and 1820s results in breakup of US, balkanized N. America. Socialist revolutions in Europe weaken the papacy. The Bahai faith emerges in the mid-1800s in the Mideast. The Ottoman empire collapses during the Crimean War. European mercenaries cause the Chinese dynasty to fall in 1832. During the ensuing civil war, Bahai spreads through Asia. A large group of Bahai flee to New Orleans to preach, and their faith spreads through N. America.
In 1880, in New Orleans, a popular local politician becomes a Bahai and begins unifying the continent with a series of alliances, and forms a new nation called the North American Union. He becomes its first and most popular leader.
A major depression strikes Europe in 1902, and fascism arises. The African colonies are neglected and break up in internal strife. The First World War breaks out in 1912 when the czar of Russia is assassinated and Poland asserts its independence. Britain, Germany, Bulgaria and Poland fight France, Austria, Hungary and Italy over adjoining territories. But Austria, Germany, Hungary and Poland are also fighting over Russian territories. So Poland has allies on both sides of the war, as do some of the lesser states.
The pandemic of 1919 proves devastating to Europe. The war ends in 1920 in a stalemate.
The North American Union is now the world's only superpower and begins sending aid to Europe, Asia and Africa.
2005 World Population: 7 billion
Tech Level: OTL 2020
Judaism
No distinction made between Jews and followers of Christ; no split between the Judaic and other Christians in the early Church. Jewish ritiuals and holidays remain part of Christian tradition. Jewish temples become early universities, with new universities established in every major city. Islam never arises. Vikings convert, successfully colonize Vinland.
2005 World Population: 4 billion
Tech Level: OTL 2000
Cathars
Papacy weakens in the tenth century with plagues and more wars. Pope dies before authorizing Cathar Crusade; Cathars escape to distant lands and make some modifications to their ideas; Mongols sack Europe; Popes become even less influential, later Cathars become more influential in Europe; plagues devastate Asia; European Cathars colonize Asia and Africa, and later the Americas.
2005 World Population: 7 billion
Tech Level: OTL 2020
Christianity
Alexander Severus bans the persecution of Christians; it never becomes the official religion of Rome; Constantine is never born. The Empire is divided between Rome and Byzantium, but it's also divided later, forming separate capitals at Lugdunum, Londinium, Trebizond, Alexandria, and other places. Various kingdoms and empires have their own popes, patriarchs and scriptures; Islam is just another tolerated variant of monotheism; the Vikings and Mongols eventually convert; the Americas are discovered in 1500 and the colonizers aren't so greedy and cruel. The Library of Alexandria is not burned, but this doesn't advance technology for various social and economic reasons; but also because many of the texts in the Library are literary rather than technical. It becomes a center of learning and other major libraries and universities are established.
2005 World Population: 4 billion
Tech Level: OTL 2000
Nestorians
An early Pope is a Nestorian, and it spreads throughout the Roman empire. Arabs, Vikings, Mongols and Chinese convert, and the Chinese spread it through Africa. The British spread it throujgh the Americas.
2005 World Population: 5 billion
Tech Level: OTL 2020
Protestants
The Kalmar Union is successful, the Swedish Empire survives, dominates Europe and later the Americas. They evangelize in China and are helpful during the Chinese Civil Wars and pandemics.
2005 World Population: 4 billion
Tech Level: OTL 2000
Byzantine/Greek Orthodox
France is never unified, the Papacy remains weak, the Mongols don't invade Byzantine territories. The Byzantine Patriarch retains as much power as OTL Popes. A different set of Emperors induce the Byzantines not to antagonize everybody else so much; the Turks never get unified enough to form the Ottoman empire, and the Crusades never take place, but the Byzantine empire still spreads through the Mideast and S. Europe, Vikings converted to Greek Orthodox and spread it through the British Isles, and the British discover the Americas and spread it there. Central and S. Europe are the only Catholic regions. Pandemics from Africa wipe out many Chinese and those left are aided by Orthodox missionaries, and they convert.
2005 World Population: 4 billion
Tech Level: OTL 1970
Eastern Orthodox, other than Greek Orthodox
When Tiberius dies, a civil war erupts which results in the permanent breakup of the Empire. Continuing warfare in the vicinity of Rome prevents any of the Apostles from going there; they stay in Turkey and the Mideast. The Patriarchs don't claim as much power as OTL Popes did; Christianity develops like Islam, with a similar leadership.
Pandemics reduce Chinese populations.
2005 World Population: 4 billion
Tech Level: OTL 1980
Russian Orthodox
France is never unified, the Papacy remains weak, the Mongols don't invade Russia or Europe, but the Bubonic Plague is worse, the Turks never unify enough to form the Ottoman Empire. A Russian prince marries a Byzantine princess so the two empires are joined. The Russians colonize Scandinavia, and the Vikings convert, and spread it through the British Isles. A Russian Patriarch is influential in the Protestant Reformation; E. Europe is converted to Russian Orthodox; and a marriage alliance with a German princess brings it to Central Europe. S. Europe is the only place where Catholicism remains strong. Orthodox Scandinavia and England colonize the Americas and Africa. The Mideast is the only place where Islam remains strong, and even it has many Orthodox communities. Chinese civilization damaged by worse Mongol incursions and pandemics.
2005 World Population: 4 billion
Tech Level: OTL 1920
Unitarianism
Several of the Founding Fathers of the US die early, somebody similar to Aaron Burr converts, becomes President and modifies the First Amendment to apply to only ideas consistent with Unitarianism. The US annexes West Indies, Liberia, Philippines, other regions, it becomes a capitalist imperial state and insinuates itself into the affairs of the rest of the world.
2005 World Population: 4 billion
Tech Level: OTL 2000
Quakers, Episcopalians
King Philip's War is avoided, the English Civil War goes on longer, Pennsylvania, New England and Virginia become autonomous, one of them becomes predominant and eventually dominate N. America. Capitalism arises, the British Empire collapses, constant warfare in China and Europe in the nineteenth century allows the North Americans to step in and take over.
2005 World Population: 5 billion
Tech Level: OTL 2020
Hawaiian or Northern Native American religion
Mongols sack Europe and also successfully invade Japan, continue explorations of the Pacific, meet Hawaiians, or Native Americans, they charm a Khan who decides that their religion should be the official religion of the empire, which somehow never falls. The Papacy remains weak, Byzantium falls early, Islam never rises.
Mongol nomadism combines with Polynesian nomadism, takes elements of other religions and cultures contacted by the Mongols, and the combined Mongol/Polynesian/Native American culture spreads around the world.
2005 World Population: 2 billion
Tech Level: OTL 1900
Inca religion
Popes remain weak, Byzantines collapse early, Ottomans collapse early, so Mongols sack Europe, pandemics sweep through Europe, Asia and China in 1210, 1340 and 1470, the slave trade never starts, Arabs discover S. America and meet the Incas, the Incas develop the scientific method and start exploring and expanding their empire. They adapt the terms of their religion to meet local conditions and attitudes.
They develop biological warfare, the printing press and mass psychology to help weaken their opponents.
2005 World Population: 900 million
Tech Level: OTL 1800
Aztec religion
After a nuclear war, the only people with access to communications are people who for some strange reason want to revive the Aztec religion. Unfortunately they can't get anybody else to go along with their ideas so they change most of it to some weird mish-mash of Aztec, Maya, New Age, Neo-Paganism ideas. They get rid of the human sacrifices, telling the gods that bugs and rodents are tasty and nutritious. Not to mention potatoes. They keep the fashion sense and landscaping, and eventually this revived and revised Aztec religion doesn't look anything like the original.
2005 World Population: 100 million
Tech Level: OTL 1000
Cao Dai, Rastafarianism
Nazis and Japanese win WW II, then destroy each other, the few remaining centers of civilization include wealthy individuals who follow one of these two religions.
2005 World Population: 500 million
Tech Level: OTL 1900
Tenrikyo
The American colonies don't unite, Napoleon dies early, Europe plunged into constant warfare. Tenrikyo emerged in Japan in the 1830s; some samurai and emperors convert and encourage its growth.
Imperial Japan takes over China during its civil wars 1870-1920. It becomes the predominant economic power in Asia. The only other power is the British empire. The Japanese learn capitalism and other goodies from the British. Japan tries to take over British territory in Asia and Pacific in a war, 1945-1952.
The British win the war with nuclear weapons, but lose the peace. The British empire becomes a fascist dictatorship. The Japanese tone down their racism to appeal to the enemies of the British and encourage dissidents. Japanese steal nuclear secrets and use them. Pandemics spread through Europe and Africa.
The Second Japanese-British war ends with a Japanese victory in 1977 and the Japanese regain their economic and political dominance of the world by 2000. The Japanese leaders endorse Tenrikyo and impose it on the rest of the world, adapting it to local beliefs to make it more palatable.
2005 World Population: 1 billion
Tech Level: OTL 1940
Shinto
The South wins the Civil War, barely. America becomes isolationist in the 1890s. The North and South keep fighting guerilla wars, and both are weakened. WW I begins on schedule but the Soviet Union fails to stay together. The 1918 global pandemic is far worse, fascism rises in Germany and Japan. The Germans and Japanese form an alliance and WW II begins on schedule but the Japanese turn on the Germans at the first opportunity. They use nuclear weapons and are the only ones left with any resources or infrastructure. Propaganda persuades the masses that the Japanese had saved the world from the Nazis and that the Allies hadn't been any better.
2005 World Population: 200 million
Tech Level: OTL 1900
(I couldn't decide if the scenarios for Tenrikyo and Shinto should be switched. Or are they equally unlikely?)
Scientology, Jehovah's Witnesses, Juche, Falun Jong, Manicheanism
Eco-disasters, plagues and nuclear wars bring down civilization and the only survivors with any decent supplies and communications were members of one of these groups. People are glad to tolerate the preaching as long as they get food and medicine.
2005 World Population: 100 million
Tech Level: OTL 1200
Santeria, Voodoo
AIDS spreads through the British Empire in the 1870s, and contemporary medical science is helpless against it. Europe and Asia are depopulated. Britishers flee to the Americas, and North America also becomes depopulated. Western civilization falls. A popular leader in Haiti arises; by this time the AIDS virus has mutated to a less deadly form, and the leader is believed to have some special powers. He leads his followers to Brazil, where he takes over and begins creating a new civilization.
2005 World Population: 100 million
Tech Level: OTL 1700
Mormonism
The US Civil War is fought in 1820, and the South wins. The Mormon republic of Deseret is founded in Utah. Mormons discover gold in Alaska, California and Australia in the 1840s. They fight and win a war with the South in the 1870s and annex the South. They tone down the racism so as not to antagonize the North. In 1908 a Mormon is elected as US president, and by 1930 Deseret has annexed or conquered all of N. America.
The European socialist revolts of 1848 turn into full-scale warfare, and this is combined with the Crimean War. The European War lasts ten years and devastates Europe and the Papacy is weakened. Mormons colonize Hawaii in the 1870s, expanding through the Pacific.
They take over Liberia by 1900, by changing their Book to make it more palatable to blacks and gaining their alliance against the British and Dutch in South Africa. They conquer South Africa by 1920.
They aggressively evangelize in Europe, China and Japan adapting their Book to meet local conditions.
An influenza pandemic erupts in 1901 in Europe and the Mormons claim to have predicted it, and predict other calamities if everybody doesn't convert.
2005 World Population: 2 billion
Tech Level: OTL 1900
Knights Templar
They flee to England, dominate English dynasties, politics and economics, for centuries. They undergo some changes, they trigger the Protestant Reformations and form their own denomination, which becomes the official Church of England; the English sovereign is the head of the Church and head of the Knights Templar; the British make agreements with the Colonies in the New World, preventing the American Revolution and the sun never sets on the British Empire.
2005 World Population: 4 billion
Tech Level: OTL 1980