SBWI What if we had not seen Pearl Harbor coming?

on December 6th 1941 the various services of the war department, aided by yankee common sense and highly suspiciously pacific Japanese behavior, as well as our not knowing where their main fleet in being was, place all of our Pacific possesion on a war footing.

Every base from The Philipise to Pearl to Wake went on Alert and, if defense was untenable prepared for evacuation.

When the Kido Butai presented themselves near Pearl they were sighted by recon plane "Strawberry five and the Military assets at Pearl Harbor, Wheeler Field Hickham field and diamondhead point were revved up.

The battle of Polynesia was one for the books and what remained of the Kido Butai was sent running.

We declared war two days later and from that point on, the U.S> was in the fight.

My question is, what would have happened if we had bought their bullcrap and actually BELIEVED their endless entreaties about peace, when we knew they wanted the entire Pacific?
 

GarethC

Donor
on December 6th 1941 the various services of the war department, aided by yankee common sense and highly suspiciously pacific Japanese behavior, as well as our not knowing where their main fleet in being was, place all of our Pacific possesion on a war footing.

Every base from The Philipise to Pearl to Wake went on Alert and, if defense was untenable prepared for evacuation.

When the Kido Butai presented themselves near Pearl they were sighted by recon plane "Strawberry five and the Military assets at Pearl Harbor, Wheeler Field Hickham field and diamondhead point were revved up.

The battle of Polynesia was one for the books and what remained of the Kido Butai was sent running.

We declared war two days later and from that point on, the U.S> was in the fight.

My question is, what would have happened if we had bought their bullcrap and actually BELIEVED their endless entreaties about peace, when we knew they wanted the entire Pacific?
Well, the Philippines would still have held. I mean, MacArthur let Brererton's B-17s wait to launch against Formosa until he actually received notification of the battle over Oahu, and still had several hours' grace to prepare for any air attack because of the weather over the IJA airfields, so he'd still catch the Japanese bomber force on the ground and meet the survivors' attack with all of the pursuit planes the FEAF had.

All of the materiel that the forces on Luzon could need were already in pre-positioned dumps to support his fighting retreat well before the start of hostilities, with plentiful amounts of fuel, ammunition, food, and medical supplies. Combined with the separate command on Mindanao which was going to pursue hostilities anyway, there was no way that he could be bottled up if the IJA was to take the vital oilfields of the DEI.

So I still reckon MacArthur would be seen as the hero of the hour for his successful defence of Manila, and I expect he'd still follow Dewey into the Oval Office.
 
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on December 6th 1941 the various services of the war department, aided by yankee common sense and highly suspiciously pacific Japanese behavior, as well as our not knowing where their main fleet in being was, place all of our Pacific possesion on a war footing.

Every base from The Philipise to Pearl to Wake went on Alert and, if defense was untenable prepared for evacuation.

When the Kido Butai presented themselves near Pearl they were sighted by recon plane "Strawberry five and the Military assets at Pearl Harbor, Wheeler Field Hickham field and diamondhead point were revved up.

The battle of Polynesia was one for the books and what remained of the Kido Butai was sent running.

We declared war two days later and from that point on, the U.S> was in the fight.

My question is, what would have happened if we had bought their bullcrap and actually BELIEVED their endless entreaties about peace, when we knew they wanted the entire Pacific?

So ITTL the Americans launched a first strike on the Japanese fleet sailing in International Waters or are they waiting for the Japanese to attack and just inflict heavier losses?

Either way I don't see how it makes a huge difference except the US Navy has a few extra old and slow battleships that cannot save the Philippines.

Also don't see how the Kido Butai were 'sent running'. If they know they've been spotted then they would simply cancel the operation.

If you are talking about the US carriers then which ones and how can you guarrantee the larger Japanese force doesn't sink the American carriers and then goes home thinking Christmas is 3 weeks early.
 
So ITTL the Americans launched a first strike on the Japanese fleet sailing in International Waters or are they waiting for the Japanese to attack and just inflict heavier losses?

Either way I don't see how it makes a huge difference except the US Navy has a few extra old and slow battleships that cannot save the Philippines.

Also don't see how the Kido Butai were 'sent running'. If they know they've been spotted then they would simply cancel the operation.

If you are talking about the US carriers then which ones and how can you guarrantee the larger Japanese force doesn't sink the American carriers and then goes home thinking Christmas is 3 weeks early.
Shit.

End thread.
 
I would think a fully alerted Pearl Harbor would also include alerting the Enterprise task force. Whether Nagumo would continue on with the attack remains to be seen but finding the Enterprise on December 7 would not be a great outcome for 400 Japanese aircraft would almost certainly sink the Enterprise and much of her task force.

It's not going to matter in the long run but in the short run perhaps the Japanese get more time to consolidate their gains before the USN cleans their clocks.
 
Sure it is which is why it would have been better if it had been suggested by someone smarter than me.

Don't feel that way about yourself. Who is to say they are really smarter? For that matter, you can claim some smarts for admitting your lack of knowledge in some subjects. SH, I have Shattered Sword and a new book about Pearl Harbor that I think will interest you.

If the US forces in Hawaii had been fully ready for battle, Dec. 7th would probably have been a very bad day for Japan.

Now if Kido Butai could have caught and sunk Enterprise and Lexington, then made its escape, that would be bad for the USA.
 
Don't feel that way about yourself. Who is to say they are really smarter? For that matter, you can claim some smarts for admitting your lack of knowledge in some subjects. SH, I have Shattered Sword and a new book about Pearl Harbor that I think will interest you.

If the US forces in Hawaii had been fully ready for battle, Dec. 7th would probably have been a very bad day for Japan.

Now if Kido Butai could have caught and sunk Enterprise and Lexington, then made its escape, that would be bad for the USA.

I agree with that, Dilvish. ;)
 
Don't feel that way about yourself. Who is to say they are really smarter? For that matter, you can claim some smarts for admitting your lack of knowledge in some subjects. SH, I have Shattered Sword and a new book about Pearl Harbor that I think will interest you.

If the US forces in Hawaii had been fully ready for battle, Dec. 7th would probably have been a very bad day for Japan.

Now if Kido Butai could have caught and sunk Enterprise and Lexington, then made its escape, that would be bad for the USA.
My idea was for a near curbstomp of the Kido Butai.

ANd if not a curbstomp then at least a "Holy shit, we better get the hell out of here."
 
My idea was for a near curbstomp of the Kido Butai.

ANd if not a curbstomp then at least a "Holy shit, we better get the hell out of here."

That is certainly possible. For instance, if the first air strike was decimated by US defenders. Worse yet, decimate both air strikes.
 

TheKinkster

Banned
This is far from ASB. Not likely, but certainly possible with the right POD. Though I think the "Holy **** let's get the hell out of here" is much more likely than the total curbstomp.
 
Your thinking about the ships, think about the pilots.

If PH is ready those zeros are going to get shot to peices trying to get to the harbor losing hundreds of trained pilots may not be as glamorous as losing an aircraft carrier battle group but it's just as crippling.
 
Your thinking about the ships, think about the pilots.

If PH is ready those zeros are going to get shot to peices trying to get to the harbor losing hundreds of trained pilots may not be as glamorous as losing an aircraft carrier battle group but it's just as crippling.
Oooh, yeah, I just realizes, Carriers with empty decks and new planes with no trained pilots to fly them.

The next battle will be pretty gritty.
 
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