Savoys don't co-opt Italian nationalism - who unites Italy and how?

*Napolean III succeeds in his first coup taking over France in 1837
*France begins rebuilding earlier as Napolean becomes.more and more brash
*Crimean War sees more invigorated French military than OTL with better performance, scares Italian nationalists who believe Paris has ambitions to rule Savoy and Lombardia
*Carboneri assassinate Napolean III in 1858, inviting international intervention over the death of a monarch
*Europeans accidentally set the stage for an Italian resurgance with an 'us against the world' mentality and a series of bloody interventions
*French regents intervene in the American Civil War leading to the war stretching into 1866 but still with a Confederate defeat as the UK stays neutral - ironically this leads to anti-British sentiment in the South for decades
*By 1900 Italy is a federated state under Naples, Venezia-in-exile, Lombardy, Tuscany, the Papacy, Sicily, Sardinia, Savoy, and Dalmatia. Napolean IV rules with a British wife as Austria-Hungary seeks to gain advantage somehow and Britian rules the waves
 
1) the Papacy could be the nucleus for a United italy., Under the right circumstances.
2) you could easily get a popular movement pushing for a united italy, winning various states either by force (e.g. Garibaldi) or persuasion (e.g. otl Savoy). You get enough states agreeing to a Federal Italy, and the smaller states that weren't interested can be persuaded to join, by force or threat of force if necessary.
Once everyone South of the Po is in, then you can tackle the Hapsburg lands.

3) if the unification is not led by Savoy/Sardinia/Piedmont, then Verdi will be mildly less popular. (Vittorio Emmanuel Re DItalia - you could shout the acronym even in Hapsburg lands.....)
 
Keeping with post-Napoleonic PODs, there might be a chance for the Two Sicilies if the King doesn't betray the 1820 revolution and the Austrains are not called to suppress it. A constitutional regime in the territorially largest Italian state will automatically make it a candidate for unification. However these relatively liberal Bourbon Two Sicilies are a quite unlikely outcome and would also face geographical and economical obstacles which Sardinia didn't have.

Sardinia itself, if no Albertine Statute is conceded, might see its monarchy toppled in 1848, leading to a Republican Norrthern Italy forming in 1848-49 and unifying the rest in the successive decades. This "utopian" outcome seems extremely unlikely to me.

The Habsburg-Lorraine of Tuscany might be a candidate if Austrai decides to cut their losses and prefer having an allied State in central/N.Italy to fighting constant uprsings and gives Lombardy Venetia to Leopold of Tuscany. This entity still seems unlikely to me to push for further unification and will probably be locked down in a stalemate with French-aligned Sardinia.

The Papal States? if reformed successfully in 1848 to have secular civilian government and the Pope in a role of mostly cerimonial monarch they might become the ideal candidate to unify Italy as a somewhat loose confederation (the Neoguelph option).

Frankly all of these sound highly unlikely. There is a reason why in the end even a staunch republican like Garibaldi accepted the authority of the King of Sardinia.

Earlier pods could lead you to very different directions though (eg Muratian Naples, surviving Medici Tuscany, Visconti or Sforza Milan etc.)
 
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Earlier pods could lead you to very different directions though (eg Muratian Naples, surviving Medici Tuscany, Visconti or Sforza Milan etc.)

Going back even further, there might be Manfred of Sicily (not very likely) or the house of Canossa in the 11th century (either with Matilda making a luckier marriage or - possibly easier - if her brother Federico does not die in his mid-teens).


Frankly alll of these sound highly unlikely. There is a reason why in the end even a staunch republican like Garibaldi accepted the authority of the King of Sardinia.

Completely agreed, and this remembering I've not a lot of sympathy for the house of Savoy.
Incidentally, I do believe that Cavour surviving another 10-15 years (he died at 51, ffs:mad:) would be the only politician capable to change for the better the critical decade of the 1860s, to avoid the unholy parliamentarian alliance of the Sardinian most retrieve aristocracy with the equally despicable great landowners from southern Italy and to keep the king under control.
 
Incidentally, I do believe that Cavour surviving another 10-15 years (he died at 51, ffs:mad:) would be the only politician capable to change for the better the critical decade of the 1860s, to avoid the unholy parliamentarian alliance of the Sardinian most retrieve aristocracy with the equally despicable great landowners from southern Italy and to keep the king under control.
Cavour dying at merely 51 is only one of the long list of Italyscrew elements in OTL. Almost everything that could go wrong from 1300 onward, did.
 
Maybe Napoleon II doesn't die of tuberculosis and is able to live longer. Let's say that in awe of his father he studies military tactics seeking to emulate his father and serves under the Austrians earning a reputation as a successful military commander. But during the 1830's Austria is crippled by revolts and revolutionaries allowing for Napoleon II to escape his gilded cage and flee to Italy. He was crowned by Napoleon I as King of Rome, and never formally abdicated his title along with his French Imperial title. Perhaps he travels to Lombardy-Venetia with some Austrian troops that defected to him and raises a rag-tag army to reclaim his Crown. In this alternate timeline Napoleon II is just as good of a commander as his father and is able to steamroll through Northern Italy. Seeing his many victories, some Italian nationalists begin to flock to him swelling his numbers. Perhaps he could make a deal with the Pope who acknowledges his claim to Italy in exchange for keeping the Papal states intact with Italy united in a more federal model. Then the Pope then takes the Iron Crown of Lombardy and formally crowns Napoleon II as the rightful King of Italy. In his Italian campaign he meets up with his cousin Louis-Napoleon (Napoleon III) who was involved with Italian revolutionaries in his youth in otl. Napoleon II likely steamrolls Southern Italy conquering the Kingdom of Two-Siciles. Though an alternate option is for him to have Louis-Napoleon marry a Sicilian Bourbon Princess and appoint him regent of Italy or as a puppet King of Naples/Two Siciles.

News of Napoleon II's stunning victories shocks Europe but they have other things on their minds as revolution is breaking all throughout Europe. Perhaps as a Butterfly event the reign of George IV the Queen Caroline affair is worse and combined with the Liverpool government, Britain becomes unstable and intervening in Europe is the last thing on its mind as tensions between the Liberal government and the King are rising. Perhaps in Prussia all this revolutionary fervor causes more revolts there with many Pan-Germanic movements calling for a united Germany. The July Revolution would occur with the out of touch Charles X becoming very unpopular with the French. Louis-Philippe who was the last King of France also grew unpopular while Napoleon II was busy conquering Italy. And with the Pope backing the Napoleon II he then prepares to launch a coup against Louis-Philippe who many in Paris saw as a tyrant. Through the use of shrewd politicking, Napoleon II presents his campaigns in France as similar to that of his Father. He presents himself as a just ruler and pro-Bonaparte press begin talking about the glories of the Empire compared to the tyrannical and stagnant Ancien Regime. Napoleon II then waltz into France and many troops defect en masse to him. Some of the old peerages in France also support him as many military families were made into Imperial Nobility by Napoleon I. Napoleon II reclaims his title and Crown as Emperor of the French and King of Italy and proclaims the restoration of the French Empire. He then presents himself as a man to restore stability and France's Imperial Glory. With Louis-Napoleon's influence he begins on a similar reconstruction of Paris and adopts a policy of neutrality to build up France's economy and military. With his experiences in fighting in Austria and Italy he then rebuilds France's armies and integrates his Italian troops with his Imperial army as Italy would be treated as an equal partner to France. Napoleon also grants his Italian supporters Imperial noble titles and positions in government to keep them happy and and content. And with the divided nature of the revolutionaries, Europe manages to eventually put down rebellion after making some toke concessions much like otl with states like Prussia and Austria forced to adopt a Constitution. Russia would also be plague with revolts but these are brutally crushed by the Tsar. Austria however isn't so lucky as the Hungarians would seek to break away from it after Napoleon II successfully broke off Italy from the Austrians. Lombardy-Venetia was also one of the richest provinces of the Austrian Empire and the loss of it would cause a crippling blow to the Hapsburgs. They appeal to Napoleon II who is half Habsburg to intervene which he does, demonstrating France's revived martial vigor.

In 1848, the Frankfurt convention is called much like otl, but the revolutionaries are more emboldened by the weakness of the Austrians and Prussians. And as a result it manages to push for a general unification of Germany. Of course since the Prussians are more dominant the Crown would be offered to the Hohenzollerns. For the sake of this scenario, a more liberal king is in charge of Prussia. Perhaps Frederick Wilhelm is forced to abdicate to a more liberal relative. Of course seeing weakness in Germany Napoleon seeks to expand and gobbles up territory in the Rhine gaining France's natural borders. Of course this angers the German revolutionaries which causes relations to strain with the French. Perhaps Napoleon III marries a Bavarian von Wittlebach Princess and the Bavarians and Austrians secretly appeal to Napoleon II as they don't want to be under the Prussian yoke. Perhaps the reactionary Russia allies with France in opposition to a united and liberal Germany on their doorstep. War erupts as Germany tries to retake back some portions of the Rhineland. Of course with Napoleon II being a good military commander is able to successfuly lead France into victory. Because the revolutionary movements were more protracted in Germany, Prussia's army would be in disarray while France would be fresh with its rebuilt army and booming economy thanks to it being spared the chaos of the rebellions and revolutionary movements. The Frankfurt united Germany then collapses and Napoleon II forces the independence of Bavaria and maintains the independence of Austria. Perhaps the Austrians are given parts of Silesia as compensation while Germany is forced under the re-established Confederation of the Rhine. Bavaria would receive some territory and perhaps Westphalia will be restored to a kingdom under the von Wittlesbachs as well. Prussia would likely be dismantled by Napoleon II and permanently weakened with the loss of so much territory. Perhaps Napoleon revives the Grand Duchy of Warsaw from Prussian lands. Perhaps he'll appoint his Polish half brother Alexandre Walewski as Grand Duke to create a Polish cadet Branch of House Bonaparte. Napoleon II would then work to try and integrate his conquests and alliances, but for many decades his German dominions would likely be unstable as he would have to prop up his German allies.
 
Maybe Napoleon II doesn't die of tuberculosis and is able to live longer. Let's say that in awe of his father he studies military tactics seeking to emulate his father and serves under the Austrians earning a reputation as a successful military commander. But during the 1830's Austria is crippled by revolts and revolutionaries allowing for Napoleon II to escape his gilded cage and flee to Italy. He was crowned by Napoleon I as King of Rome, and never formally abdicated his title along with his French Imperial title. Perhaps he travels to Lombardy-Venetia with some Austrian troops that defected to him and raises a rag-tag army to reclaim his Crown. In this alternate timeline Napoleon II is just as good of a commander as his father and is able to steamroll through Northern Italy. Seeing his many victories, some Italian nationalists begin to flock to him swelling his numbers. Perhaps he could make a deal with the Pope who acknowledges his claim to Italy in exchange for keeping the Papal states intact with Italy united in a more federal model. Then the Pope then takes the Iron Crown of Lombardy and formally crowns Napoleon II as the rightful King of Italy. In his Italian campaign he meets up with his cousin Louis-Napoleon (Napoleon III) who was involved with Italian revolutionaries in his youth in otl. Napoleon II likely steamrolls Southern Italy conquering the Kingdom of Two-Siciles. Though an alternate option is for him to have Louis-Napoleon marry a Sicilian Bourbon Princess and appoint him regent of Italy or as a puppet King of Naples/Two Siciles.

News of Napoleon II's stunning victories shocks Europe but they have other things on their minds as revolution is breaking all throughout Europe. Perhaps as a Butterfly event the reign of George IV the Queen Caroline affair is worse and combined with the Liverpool government, Britain becomes unstable and intervening in Europe is the last thing on its mind as tensions between the Liberal government and the King are rising. Perhaps in Prussia all this revolutionary fervor causes more revolts there with many Pan-Germanic movements calling for a united Germany. The July Revolution would occur with the out of touch Charles X becoming very unpopular with the French. Louis-Philippe who was the last King of France also grew unpopular while Napoleon II was busy conquering Italy. And with the Pope backing the Napoleon II he then prepares to launch a coup against Louis-Philippe who many in Paris saw as a tyrant. Through the use of shrewd politicking, Napoleon II presents his campaigns in France as similar to that of his Father. He presents himself as a just ruler and pro-Bonaparte press begin talking about the glories of the Empire compared to the tyrannical and stagnant Ancien Regime. Napoleon II then waltz into France and many troops defect en masse to him. Some of the old peerages in France also support him as many military families were made into Imperial Nobility by Napoleon I. Napoleon II reclaims his title and Crown as Emperor of the French and King of Italy and proclaims the restoration of the French Empire. He then presents himself as a man to restore stability and France's Imperial Glory. With Louis-Napoleon's influence he begins on a similar reconstruction of Paris and adopts a policy of neutrality to build up France's economy and military. With his experiences in fighting in Austria and Italy he then rebuilds France's armies and integrates his Italian troops with his Imperial army as Italy would be treated as an equal partner to France. Napoleon also grants his Italian supporters Imperial noble titles and positions in government to keep them happy and and content. And with the divided nature of the revolutionaries, Europe manages to eventually put down rebellion after making some toke concessions much like otl with states like Prussia and Austria forced to adopt a Constitution. Russia would also be plague with revolts but these are brutally crushed by the Tsar. Austria however isn't so lucky as the Hungarians would seek to break away from it after Napoleon II successfully broke off Italy from the Austrians. Lombardy-Venetia was also one of the richest provinces of the Austrian Empire and the loss of it would cause a crippling blow to the Hapsburgs. They appeal to Napoleon II who is half Habsburg to intervene which he does, demonstrating France's revived martial vigor.

In 1848, the Frankfurt convention is called much like otl, but the revolutionaries are more emboldened by the weakness of the Austrians and Prussians. And as a result it manages to push for a general unification of Germany. Of course since the Prussians are more dominant the Crown would be offered to the Hohenzollerns. For the sake of this scenario, a more liberal king is in charge of Prussia. Perhaps Frederick Wilhelm is forced to abdicate to a more liberal relative. Of course seeing weakness in Germany Napoleon seeks to expand and gobbles up territory in the Rhine gaining France's natural borders. Of course this angers the German revolutionaries which causes relations to strain with the French. Perhaps Napoleon III marries a Bavarian von Wittlebach Princess and the Bavarians and Austrians secretly appeal to Napoleon II as they don't want to be under the Prussian yoke. Perhaps the reactionary Russia allies with France in opposition to a united and liberal Germany on their doorstep. War erupts as Germany tries to retake back some portions of the Rhineland. Of course with Napoleon II being a good military commander is able to successfuly lead France into victory. Because the revolutionary movements were more protracted in Germany, Prussia's army would be in disarray while France would be fresh with its rebuilt army and booming economy thanks to it being spared the chaos of the rebellions and revolutionary movements. The Frankfurt united Germany then collapses and Napoleon II forces the independence of Bavaria and maintains the independence of Austria. Perhaps the Austrians are given parts of Silesia as compensation while Germany is forced under the re-established Confederation of the Rhine. Bavaria would receive some territory and perhaps Westphalia will be restored to a kingdom under the von Wittlesbachs as well. Prussia would likely be dismantled by Napoleon II and permanently weakened with the loss of so much territory. Perhaps Napoleon revives the Grand Duchy of Warsaw from Prussian lands. Perhaps he'll appoint his Polish half brother Alexandre Walewski as Grand Duke to create a Polish cadet Branch of House Bonaparte. Napoleon II would then work to try and integrate his conquests and alliances, but for many decades his German dominions would likely be unstable as he would have to prop up his German allies.
Why Louis Napoleon is South Italy instead of a Murat cousin? The wedding of the younger brother can be butterflied and he can marry the Bourbon princess becoming the King of Naples and Sicily
 
Why Louis Napoleon is South Italy instead of a Murat cousin? The wedding of the younger brother can be butterflied and he can marry the Bourbon princess becoming the King of Naples and Sicily
That could work too. But I suggested Louis Napoleon since he might be more of an appealing candidate since he fought with the Italian Nationalists.

Maybe Louis Napoleon could be appointed as King of Holland retaking his father’s throne. Louis Bonaparte was the Napoleonic king of the Netherlands after all.

With all these Puppet Kingdoms the Imperial title might evolve into a King of Kings title. Perhaps Napoleon II could frame his Empire as a successor of the Carolingian Empire: a federated Universal Empire is French, Germans, and Italians. He might even be able to claim the Holy Roman Imperial title since his gradfather was Francis II after all.
 
Why Louis Napoleon is South Italy instead of a Murat cousin? The wedding of the younger brother can be butterflied and he can marry the Bourbon princess becoming the King of Naples and Sicily
How about Bonapartist Princes of Canino and Musignano replace the role of the Sardinian House of Savoy?
 

gurgu

Banned
Garibaldi can still take out Two Sicilies on his own, and then maybe he can lend it's army to the cause, though I doubt he'd make much headway against Austria without the armies of France and the Savoyards*.

*who probably are counted as his enemies TTL
without Cavour's help Garibaldi would fail before reaching Sicily. the ships he "stole", the troops in Tuscany mysteriously leaving the city the day before he stops in for resupply, the equipment "bought"...
 

gurgu

Banned
the Best chance for italy in a near time would be Murat not helping Napoleon in the 100 days and thus keeping the thrones on Naples, then he can focus on uniting italy.
if we can go earlier.... the best shots are a better lega italica from Lorenzo Il magnifico that transforms italy like the Swiss confederation or the Sforza not dying, in their best moment they controlled all Lombardy, Genoa in a some kind of Personal union and almost vassalized the Ferrara duchy of d'Este family. The other italian families( Gonzaga, d'Este, Paleologi( cadet branch ERE)) were too weak or already almost extincted
 
without Cavour's help Garibaldi would fail before reaching Sicily. the ships he "stole", the troops in Tuscany mysteriously leaving the city the day before he stops in for resupply, the equipment "bought"...
Cavour was not helping Garibaldi of his own will. He had received clear orders from Garibaldi’s employers to not disturb him and you can be sure who the loan of the ships was paid and same for the armaments who do not came from the Savoy’s armories.
Garibaldi and his men do not were at all the romantic heroic patriots of the legend but a very well armed and paid band of mercenaries
 
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gurgu

Banned
Cavour was not helping Garibaldi of his own will. He had received clear orders from Garibaldi’s employers to not disturb him and you can be sure who the loan of the ships was paid and same for the armaments who do not came from the Savoy’s armories.
Garibaldi and his men do not were at all the romantic heroic patriots of the legend but a very well armed and paid band of mercenaries
the thousand of garibaldi weren't in no way mercenaries, they were all volunteers. i can even give a list of each profession each on them was doing before the expedition also the youngest participant was 10 years old.
The armament was collected with an onlus like operation with Garibaldi creating the Association on donation "mille fucili" with even the Sardinia kingdom donating to it.
 
without Cavour's help Garibaldi would fail before reaching Sicily. the ships he "stole", the troops in Tuscany mysteriously leaving the city the day before he stops in for resupply, the equipment "bought"...
I see, so Savoy supporting the status quo essentially neutralizes Garibaldi too?
 

gurgu

Banned
I see, so Savoy supporting the status quo essentially neutralizes Garibaldi too?
OTL cavour didn't want to help Garibaldi, his strategy was to take all the northern-central italy except the papal state and industrialize it, than exploit some war of france or austria to take down the rest SLOWLY, so the country would have time to be on the same technological level. The main problem was the king himself that as Garibaldi wanted to grab the land sooner and faster so he had to make him happy by helping "by mistake/coincidence" Garibaldi.

IF TTL the king agrees with Cavour's policy Garibaldi will receive a lot less support. If he landes by some miracle in Sicily, his volunteer would be under-equipped and face a lot hard time.
Also in OTL the anchoring of the ships was made possible because an english vessel positioned itself between Garibaldi and the port cannons, thus saving the attackers from drowning. The english did this because they hoped to create a protectorate over Sicily( central island in Mediterranean with high grain production).
 
the Best chance for italy in a near time would be Murat not helping Napoleon in the 100 days and thus keeping the thrones on Naples, then he can focus on uniting italy.
Time would go back a few more years back:
1) Eugène Rose de Beauharnais managed Italy south of the Alps and Napoleon awarded the Illyrian Provinces -- modern day Slovenia and Croatia to Eugene. Through Eugene's marriage to Augusta from the House of Wittelsbach, the informal marriage lineage of French and Bavarian influence would create a connected landmass under Beauharnais and Wittelbach in northern Italy, Bavaria, Slovenia and Croatia -- in essence around the Alps on the east to counter Prussian Hohenzollern and Austrian Habsburg influences. Beauharnais and Wittelbach would be consolidating their gain. How the Congress of Vienna managed Beauharnais and Willtelbach gains would be interesting.
2) Joseph Bonaparte kept managing southern Italy as the King of Naples. Given that Spanish Bourbon nobility managed Sicily, Joseph's advancement against it could be advertised as revolutionary movement against the old regime. When Napoleon Ier collapsed, Bonaparte would keep their Sicilian and Neapolitan processions by not helping Napoleon, at least not openly. Also with Sicily under Bonapartist control, it would not be under Sardinia. In essence, there would be Bonapartist kings of the Two Sicilies, not Bourbon.
3) Murat would be assigned to Spain.
4) In OTL, was there a civil war among Moroccan Alaouites after the death of the Sultan of Morocco Mohammed Ben Abdellah that coincided with the rise of Napoleon? When the Moroccan management in OTL remained passive at the time when Eugene and Joseph took control, would Napoleon Ier's influence strong enough to put the future Francis I of the two Sicilies to manage modern day Western Sahara? In this ATL, the Spanish Bourbon thru the lines of Francis I would be more enthusiastic to manage Morocco instead of French influence at the turn of the 19th to 20th century. While Morocco would remain independent in this ATL to modern day, Spanish influence at least since Napoleonic times --- 200 years --- would have given more European leverage to the area in Western Sahara.
 
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