Saving The Socialist Federative Republic of Yugoslavia

Ok, first some rough overview of situation, not known by a lot of Western folks. Nationalism rose in '80es because of declining economy. Also because crimes of all armed groups in WWII had been swept under the rug and ignored. Croatian Ustasche did a horrifying and brutal genocide against Serbs, Jews and Gypsies. Albanians SS brigade supported by Italian Albania did their ethnic cleansing act on Kosovo and in Macedonia. And Serbs had to repay the favor by "pro-King" and "anti Nazi" Chetniks being most active in Bosnia and Montenegro, killing non Serbs and alleged communist supporters. There are rumors they attacked Germans occasionally :p
Than the "liberation" came in 1944. and Partisans did their own measure of justice (and all justice must come from a barrel of a rifle or gallows)

And when situation stabilized by early '50es... it was ALL swept under the rug, to be happily ignored in the goal of building "Brotherhood and Unity". People mostly accommodated to the new situation, most had their living standards greatly improved by '60es... though both Serb and Croat nationalist emigration existed abroad, busy keeping old hatreds alive.

Economy was heavily dependent on foreign aid, still not that much. Still, with Oil Crisis of '70es country's debt increased, to the point that after Tito's death "Collective Presidency" and its economic organs had to obey to IMF recommendations on how to run economy in order to repay debts. Now, those recommendations weren’t that healthy for the country, and furthermore were being implemented by leadership that was (by early '80es) already very corrupt and keen on finding new ways to get state money in their pockets, advancing their own positions and supporting power climb of their friends and partners in theft.

By late ‘80es economy was hitting rock bottom, not quite the penniless state USSR found itself in 1990. but bad. Inflation and unemployment were worse since ever from ‘50es onwards. And with Moderate increase in speech freedoms and tolerance nationalism was on the slow rise since after Tito died, with it greatly steeping up in late ‘80es. To worsen everything, its was communist policy during most of Tito’s period to keep police force and state security in one republic, to be dominated by nationalities from other republics, “to balance everything out”. And that sown a lot of hatred. In Serbia everyone was blaming Croats and Slovenians in party and state sec leadership for… well everything. Same, in Slovenia and Croatia everyone hated that Serbs and Montenegrins dominated police and army.

And once real multiparty elections were held, everything quickly went to hell. I don’t know what’s the truth I know that everyone here knew that Tudjman was a dangerous pro Fascist nationalist (and he has occasionally quite public praised WWII Independent State of Croatia), that Izebegovic was a Mujahedin supported violent Islamic nationalist… and so on. And in Bosnia and Croatia they hated every single outburst of Serbian nationalism, immediately connecting it to WWII Chetnik massacres.


To prevent disintegration of country, heck even to prevent it being a violent civil war, you have to change a lot of things. So one by one.
In 1970es. Tito cracks down a bit harder on Croat nationalists during Croatian Spring. It simply has to be done, nationalism on all sides has to be countered, and Old Man is only one with authority to do it. In 1971. technocratic “liberals” are not cracked down as hard as in OTL, so that economy can be a bit more efficient and durable.
Now a thing at which I will clearly be denounced as Serbian nationalist and rest of my post ignored (if it hasn’t happened already). 1972. constitution doesn’t split Serbia in 3 parts. It was best possible fuel for Serbian nationalists one could have possibly created. Until 1941. Kosovo and Vojvodina were integral parts of Serbia from 1912. and 1918. respectively.
When AVNOJ drafted first constitutions of communist Yugoslavia in 1944. and started drawing borders they were still under Stalin’s influence, and communist tendencies everywhere to prove themselves as “democratic” and “multiethnic multinational” by arbitrary creating new borders, new republics, new autonomous provinces.
Even creation of Kosovo and Vojvodina as autonomous provinces was hard to swallow, but in 1944. and 1945. you said “yes comrade Tito”, or found yourself in a ditch with a bullet in your head. Granting them independence near that of republics in 1972. created outrage and breeding ground for Serbian nationalism.

Now. I cant tell whether it would be better for Tito to die a couple of years earlier or later. If he dies earlier it might just be possible that the nonsensical “collective presidency” manages to figure out a way to work before economy makes it impossible. If Tito dies later, than we might see that there is no time for respect of him and his ideology to die fast enough and completely enough by time communism starts breaking down in 1989. And so nationalism doesn’t get as strong in time for its destructiveness to do its dirty work.

And finally. Personally I consider Milosevic, Tudjman and Izetbegovic all guilty in same amount. At times each of them was a rabid nationalist. With Milosevic furthermore, more of the time just being opportunistic scumbag that will ride that wave of popular opinion to stay in power, whether that sentiment is nationalism or paining frogs blue. Still, Slobo had completely no sense of international politics and PR, no sense of giving moderates their way if it could cost him power. (In 1987. he condemned infamous “Memorandum of Serbian Academy of Arts and Sciences” as nationalistic antisocialist propaganda. In 1989. he was The Promised Leader to all Serb nationalists) Best way to avoid him and prevent his rise to power would for someone to point out to Stambolic that Slobo is a potential backstabbing bastard before 1987. Though again and again, some things I heard make it very difficult for Stambolic to stay in power in Serbia in any timeline. He simply wasn’t corrupt enough (im not saying he was a saint, just that he was quite a bit better than most) to be tolerated by rest of economic and politic leadership of Serbia.

With all of above or just some of them happening. Economy is in somewhat better condition in 1989. Nationalism on all sides a bit lower, causing lower “reciprocal” nationalism by other nationalities. By lack of Milosevic bogeyman it might make Tudjman and Izetbegovic not be able to ride their own waves of nationalism to power, and more moderates take their places. Country is still close to a breaking point both politically and economically, still hopefully good enough that a stabile temporary solutions can be found, maybe moderate confederal model is adopted, or just talked enough about long enough for country to get close to joining European Economic Community.
 
Out of curiosity, what do modern post-Yugoslavs think of Tito? From the simplistic outsider's viewpoint, the communist dictatorship was MUCH better than the alternative. Hell, that's my proposal for Israel/Palestine - one state with a hardline atheist communist dictator.
 
Its silly. At first, in late '80es everyone was screaming that their nationality was exploited by others, that they had least rights and most obligations. And Tito was communist devil who organized all that. Yugoslavia was "dungeon of the nations", and they could have all progressed so much, only if it weren't for other nations in Yugoslavia slowing them.

Tito was called:
lame devil (he because he lost his leg to illness shortly before his death),
lame locksmith,
combinations of above.
Also he was quickly claimed by both Serb and Croat nationalists to have been "Polish count of Jewish origin, and also a freemason".

By now most of this torrent of bullshit has subsided on all sides, though sadly there are a lot of young kids who buy it completely, as they were not even born when YU disintegrated, or were in diapers.
 
Tito was called:
lame devil (he because he lost his leg to illness shortly before his death),
lame locksmith,
combinations of above.
Possible combinations of "lame", "lame", "devil", and "locksmith":

Lame Devil
Devil Lame
Lame Locksmith
Locksmith Lame
Devil Locksmith
Locksmith Devil
Lame Lame

Personally, I like the last one:D
 
With a POD before the war in Bosnia-Herzegovina OTL, but after Tito's death, let's try to save this interesting experiment of a State.

Bonus points if original borders'integrity is respected, although a solution which includes more than simply Serbia-Montenegro-Kosovo is still acceptable !

Other bonus points if we can eliminate genocides and prevent a new conflict from arising just a few years after the cannons stopped shelling.

Wankishness if you can bring Yugoslavia in the European Union without losing member states, or maybe just Slovenia and -most of- Croatia.

For starters Edvard Kardelj outlives Marshal Tito, instead of dying in 1979 he lives another 10 or 11 years possibly butterflying away Slobodan Milosevic.
 
One thing is for sure - one has to figure a way of toning down the nationalist rhetoric. Otherwise, Milosevic, Karadzic, Tudjman and Izetbegovic are still going to appear and still going to have influence. How one was never able to see Milosevic' opportunistic shit is surprising on a number of fronts.

If you want to save the SFRY, you would need to kill the nationalism or make the nation so prosperous that such garbage is left behind because it makes a mess of the silverware, so to speak. If the SFRY can survive into the 1990s, it would be clear by 1993-94 that the new EU wants to bring Eastern Europe in from the cold. The economic reforms needed post-communism would be done with the goal of EU entry in mind (Yugoslavia needed much less work in this regard than most of the Eastern bloc) and it could conceivably be one of those which enters the EU in 2004.

Now, if you can keep the nation together, the results of those efforts would largely keep the country on the right track. The question is how do you do this.
 
One thing is for sure - one has to figure a way of toning down the nationalist rhetoric. Otherwise, Milosevic, Karadzic, Tudjman and Izetbegovic are still going to appear and still going to have influence. How one was never able to see Milosevic' opportunistic shit is surprising on a number of fronts.

If you want to save the SFRY, you would need to kill the nationalism or make the nation so prosperous that such garbage is left behind because it makes a mess of the silverware, so to speak. If the SFRY can survive into the 1990s, it would be clear by 1993-94 that the new EU wants to bring Eastern Europe in from the cold. The economic reforms needed post-communism would be done with the goal of EU entry in mind (Yugoslavia needed much less work in this regard than most of the Eastern bloc) and it could conceivably be one of those which enters the EU in 2004.

Now, if you can keep the nation together, the results of those efforts would largely keep the country on the right track. The question is how do you do this.

You need to kill off pretty much all the leaders who took over IOTL, those guys were not team players and wanted crave up Yugoslavia into private fiefdoms using BS nationalistic rhetoric. (the oldest trick in the book)

So you need the masses to smarter and the emergence of more federalist-minded leaders willing to work with each other to form a rational system.

Either that one badass guy takes over and carries out a Saddam style crackdown.:eek:
 
You need to kill off pretty much all the leaders who took over IOTL, those guys were not team players and wanted crave up Yugoslavia into private fiefdoms using BS nationalistic rhetoric. (the oldest trick in the book)

So you need the masses to smarter and the emergence of more federalist-minded leaders willing to work with each other to form a rational system.

Either that one badass guy takes over and carries out a Saddam style crackdown.:eek:

Tito's designated successor Edvard Kardelj died a year before he did in 1979, lets say for argument's sake that Kardelj outlives Tito and dies 10 years later in 1989. Would he at least be able to delay the break-up of Yugoslavia? And would he be able to prevent Milosevic from coming to power? Any thoughts?
 

The Sandman

Banned
Have King Alexander not get assassinated in 1934 and continue to crack down equally on all nationalist groups. If he manages to live through WWII, Yugoslavia most likely tries to pull a Turkey, albeit with a bit more support for the Axis (allowing the Germans to transit the country to attack Greece, for example; if he can avoid or defeat the coup that in OTL caused the German invasion, then Yugoslavia never has the WWII experience and atrocities as a force for nationalist sentiment). Expect that they switch sides to the Allies as soon as it becomes obvious who's going to win the war, with the intention of getting Istria and Trieste as prizes.
 
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