Save the Qing Empire

In all TL's where China "pulls a Meiji" and achieves its true potential as a world superpower by the early 20th Century, the scenario almost always involves the overthrow of the decadent Qing and its replacement by another dynasty. But what POD's (go back as early as you want) have to take place in order for China to "pull a Meiji" or become a military and economic Great Power by the first half of the 20th Century, but under the leadership of the House of Aisin-Goro?

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The Manchu, or Qing if you want to call them that, were a relatively low point in Chinese civilization. Before they took over, China was arguably the most technologically advanced civilization in the world. The junks of the Ming made those rafts sailing from the Iberian Peninsula look like jokes. Perhaps having the Ming defeat the invading Manchu and surviving to the 19th century. Then they can reform and assimilate Western stuff that they see as useful.
 
I'm not a Sinologist, but it would be quite tough, I think. The Manchus were foreigners, and were perceived as such by both their subjects and themselves, IIRC.

To get a 'Meiji' it really helps to have the common people pulling together with the government, feeling part of a whole.

I'm sure it's doable, somehow, but I sure don't know how!
 
O.K. first post so be gentle with my ramblings

Dathi THorfinnsson is rigth I believe. I think one of the fundamental problems the Qing faced was that they weren’t a Han dynasty and so had to tread quite carefully to ensure that they did not upset their Han Chinese subjects who massively out numbered them. To do this they, like most ‘barbarian’ dynasties, brought quite heavily into the notions of Chinese superiority and were quite conservative. Any attempts to copy or impose western ideas on to the country are politically risky as it is likely draw flak from the Confucian scholars.

However, it could be possible for Qing to modernize without the dynastry begin over thrown. I can think of several factors/PODs that could help.

Firstly: have them send out treasure fleets like the Ming did. Sure this is expensive and is nothing more than a show of Chinese power rather than exploration. However, it would allow the Qing a more accurate view of the dangers of underestimating the Westerns and the conquest of India say could frighten them into adapting industrialization. This is not that likely through, the Qing were more concerned with the threat posed by the steppes and this is where they are likely to focus their effects, as historically, if they are sensible.

Second possible POD: A really nasty opinium war. Have the British occupy Beijing for a few years. Have the imperial court run for their lives. Really ensure that China’s ruling class really know they are out classed. The British will likely agree to a treaty something like the one signed historically and so will not conquer China outright (too big morsel to swallow). But the Chinese government will realise that they need to industrialize or die.

Third POD: Here’s an interesting one, because she is usually blamed for much of modern China’s problems, delay Cixi’s death by a decade or so. The last few years of her life saw very rapid modernization. However, her death resulted in something of a power vacuum that led to the 1911 revolution. Her survival may allow the imperial government the time needed to reform.
 
One good one is have the Guangzu Emperor succeed in the Hundred Days' Reform. Then you have a fairly modern China still under the Qing. If the Qing lead the drive for reform, it is unlikely they will be overthrown.
 
Paging Dr. Hendryk.

Dr. Hendryk to the Before 1900 Ward.

Dr. Hendryk.

Well I'm not the Dr. Hendryk(but i want to have if knowledge in China),I'm The Practice Nivek(Von Beldo, i forgot wrote than in my register) but I think you already read this Essay:

http://www.changingthetimes.net/samples/preww1/never_tickle_a_sleeping_dragon.htm
(IMHO, i give that Essay a 3.5 Start of five of Calification, was pretty pausable in several geopolitical and history areas, beside both Guanzu personality but than is the vital POD)

In general China poor historic perfomance in the Victoria(read Imperialist) Era was for his own internal problems, read his own intenal corruption and the weakness of the Emperor against the Conservative Clique who for their corruption and grediness make possible the humillation of the Sino-Japanesse War and the later end of the Empire, the only pausable way if one Emperor won Wilhelm II soul and personality(Theodore Roosvelt can be a good spare too) and declare a Interm war against the conservative and make a big reform in search of 'Modernity'(again that can anger and put red alert all another imperialist power beside Germany and Italy but again that depend of the date and who want to be the foreing reformers...)

Well, the better POD for a Surviving Qing Empire(That was the OP) is Guanzu winning Balls and overthrow her Aunt or Butterflie away Empress Cixi

P.S Here Onkel Willie, who is (in)Famous for this very long paragraph TL, make the exercise, i think that was Heydrik approved:

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=116593
 
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Qing was notorious for their literary inquisition that severely cut down literary freedom, and cultural oppression in which many elements of Chinese culture were ruthlessly suppressed. You didn't think pigtails on heads and Qipao are of Han origin did ya.

I don't see how a Qing constitutional monarchy would be in any way popular. Though I would admit my personal preference against Qing...But hey, look at the so-called Hong-Qian Prosperity Period(康乾盛世), it was a period of population growth without crop growth following, which leaded to large-scale famine and "humanitarianism" ensued, a period of severe corruption which gives us Heshen, a period of self-seclusion and a period of suppression of mercantile and scientific ideas. All those cultural oppression had also planted the seeds of servilism in minds of people.

In comparison, Song had a much vibrant industry and economy, Ming further developed, such as the 2.5-time increase in iron production and the replacement of linen by cotton cloth. More than two-third of the industrial production of the world, including ship-building, handcrafts, metallurgy and various light industries, had been conducted in China during these two dynasties, even higher than the agricultural sector.

What about Qing? Let us look at two pointer commodities: Iron and Cloth. After the Qing conquest, the population regrew to even several times than that of Ming before the invasion, however the industrial production of these two goods never followed, it was in this period that the Chinese IC reduced to merely 6% of the world. It was also a near vacuum of new production methods and technologies.

Foreign missionaries had commented Ming as a place of rich and well-mannered people. And two hundred years later, George Macartney described China as leaping backward to half-barbarians after the Tartar invasion while they were advancing every day.

I dare say the so-called prosperity was a mirage created by those cruel literary inquisitions, like what Lu Xun had proposed, or a phenomenon merely created by the "recovery" from the "population reduction" by the Manchus when they invaded China. After that "prosperity"? Well, it's pretty much what you know about China. Bah, IMO Qing itself was the most facepalm-worthy period in Chinese history, it was so far from redemption compared to previous dynasties.
 
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I think there are possibilities:

1. 1715, the Pope does not rule against the Jesuits in the Chinese Rites Controversy. This would allow the Jesuits to continue their work in China, and for China to have access to European ideas during the period of rapid technological advancement in the 18th century.

2. Qianlong Emperor establish trade links with India during the mid-18th century, making contact with the British earlier. Qianlong was fascinated with the West and built faux European villages in the Summer Palace and was also a fan of Italian art. It's possible he would allow exchanges of embassies in his younger years if he was more aware of what the British had to offer.

Having embassies in Europe during the Seven Years War or the Napoleonic Wars would change Chinese thinking about modern international relations.

3. Acquiring Spanish mercury amalgamation technique to extract silver. This is a more efficient process which would have increased the empire's silver holdings. During the wars of independence from Spain, the flow of silver from Mexican and Peruvian mines were greatly reduced, leading to a decades long depression in China. This crisis ended the long running Qing golden age and a period of constant rebellions began. After the flow of silver resumed, the imperial treasury rebounded and this was a factor in the defeat of the Taipings. Several decades of peace and modernization followed.

Had China better silver extraction technology its possible the entire disastrous period from 1820-1865 could be avoided.

4. Earlier and much more rigorous anti-opium campaign, replacing opium imports with that of British cotton.
 
Reading about this in history class. Sounds like the last Empress, Cu Xi I believe, blocked all attempts at reform for her own gain until the very last minute. And then when she finally was about to be forced out of power, she ordered the reformers to killed out of revenge/spite if I remember correctly.
 
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