After King Alexander of Yugoslavia was assassinated in 1934, his cousin Paul became Regent for Alexander's seven-year-old son. OTL, Paul ruled until spring 1941, when he was run out of the country on the eve of the German invasion.
Regent Paul had his little quirks, but he was no fool. And he gradually came to realize that Serb dominance, and the corresponding resentment that it generated, was crippling Yugoslavia. So, starting in 1938, he began actively seeking an accommodation with the Croats.
These negotiations resulted in the _Sporazum_ ("Agreement") of 1939, which gave home rule to Croatia. It un-gerrymandered the borders (which had been redrawn by Alexander, enraging everyone and accomplishing nothing) and created a Croatian Parliament. The new Croatian state was given a very high degree of internal autonomy, including control over the judiciary, internal commerce, and all non-military state property.
The _Sporazum_ bore a more than passing resemblance to the Austro-Hungarian _Ausgleich_ of 70 years earlier, and for good reason. It had the same purpose and effect: to amicably settle relations between the nation's two largest ethnic groups -- albeit at the expense of all the smaller groups -- by creating a sort of Siamese twin nation joined only at the very top, in the person of the King. (Or, in Yugoslavia's case, the Regent.)
Unfortunately, the _Sporazum_ was given less than two years to show its possibilities; it went into effect in September 1939, and Yugoslavia was crushed in April 1941.
Furthermore, it was perpetually under internal attack from day one. In Serbia, it was widely seen as a sellout of Serb interests by the "foreign" Prince Paul. Some moderate voices spoke in its favor, but Serb nationalists loathed it from day one. And even in Croatia, it was attacked and undermined both by radical nationalists (who wanted full independence, not autonomy) and by Communists (who had been making good headway fishing in the troubled waters of Croat-Serb tension, and had no interest in seeing the issue peacefully resolved). Also, Prince Paul made the mistake of not holding elections. True, it was a reasonable mistake; World War Two was going on, and Paul felt that elections would be disruptive and dangerous. But the result was the _Sporazum_ was never given the legitimacy of having been tested electorally, and remained a top-down enactment with limited popular support.
That said, the _Sporazum_ seems to have been a very reasonable compromise, acceptable to a clear majority of Croats and at least a large minority of Serbs. Unfortunately, it was a little too closely associated with the person of Prince Paul...
Okay, so: say that Paul comes up with the _Sporazum_ several years earlier. In fact, say he implements it soon after Alexander's death, no later than 1935. That's a stretch, but what the hey -- let's handwave it and see what happens.
As noted, Serb nationalists will hate it, and will also cast it in terms of a betrayal of the sacred memory of the martyred King. (Who, as noted, had his own daft and failed plans for inter-ethnic brotherhood.) But Prince Paul was smart enough to surround himself with bodyguards, and I don't see anyone starting a revolution over this.
So... maybe we see a more stable Royalist Yugoslavia. More importantly, one with a lot more legitimacy in Croatia.
Now, 1941 will probably still go off as iOTL. But Pavelic's government will have noticeably less popular support. And Tito will have a harder time claiming legitimacy.
Oddly, this may lead to a postwar Yugoslavia that's less stable than iOTL. Hm.
Thoughts?
Doug M.
Regent Paul had his little quirks, but he was no fool. And he gradually came to realize that Serb dominance, and the corresponding resentment that it generated, was crippling Yugoslavia. So, starting in 1938, he began actively seeking an accommodation with the Croats.
These negotiations resulted in the _Sporazum_ ("Agreement") of 1939, which gave home rule to Croatia. It un-gerrymandered the borders (which had been redrawn by Alexander, enraging everyone and accomplishing nothing) and created a Croatian Parliament. The new Croatian state was given a very high degree of internal autonomy, including control over the judiciary, internal commerce, and all non-military state property.
The _Sporazum_ bore a more than passing resemblance to the Austro-Hungarian _Ausgleich_ of 70 years earlier, and for good reason. It had the same purpose and effect: to amicably settle relations between the nation's two largest ethnic groups -- albeit at the expense of all the smaller groups -- by creating a sort of Siamese twin nation joined only at the very top, in the person of the King. (Or, in Yugoslavia's case, the Regent.)
Unfortunately, the _Sporazum_ was given less than two years to show its possibilities; it went into effect in September 1939, and Yugoslavia was crushed in April 1941.
Furthermore, it was perpetually under internal attack from day one. In Serbia, it was widely seen as a sellout of Serb interests by the "foreign" Prince Paul. Some moderate voices spoke in its favor, but Serb nationalists loathed it from day one. And even in Croatia, it was attacked and undermined both by radical nationalists (who wanted full independence, not autonomy) and by Communists (who had been making good headway fishing in the troubled waters of Croat-Serb tension, and had no interest in seeing the issue peacefully resolved). Also, Prince Paul made the mistake of not holding elections. True, it was a reasonable mistake; World War Two was going on, and Paul felt that elections would be disruptive and dangerous. But the result was the _Sporazum_ was never given the legitimacy of having been tested electorally, and remained a top-down enactment with limited popular support.
That said, the _Sporazum_ seems to have been a very reasonable compromise, acceptable to a clear majority of Croats and at least a large minority of Serbs. Unfortunately, it was a little too closely associated with the person of Prince Paul...
Okay, so: say that Paul comes up with the _Sporazum_ several years earlier. In fact, say he implements it soon after Alexander's death, no later than 1935. That's a stretch, but what the hey -- let's handwave it and see what happens.
As noted, Serb nationalists will hate it, and will also cast it in terms of a betrayal of the sacred memory of the martyred King. (Who, as noted, had his own daft and failed plans for inter-ethnic brotherhood.) But Prince Paul was smart enough to surround himself with bodyguards, and I don't see anyone starting a revolution over this.
So... maybe we see a more stable Royalist Yugoslavia. More importantly, one with a lot more legitimacy in Croatia.
Now, 1941 will probably still go off as iOTL. But Pavelic's government will have noticeably less popular support. And Tito will have a harder time claiming legitimacy.
Oddly, this may lead to a postwar Yugoslavia that's less stable than iOTL. Hm.
Thoughts?
Doug M.