Saudi Civil War and fall of the House of Saud

Magical123

Banned
Okay what would the possibility be of Saudi Arabia collapsing into civil war and house of Saud crumbling during 2011-2012? If this occurred what would the consequences be?
 
Consequences of Saudi Civil War similar to Iraq and Syria

ISIS or Al Qaeda would take advantage, become sronger

The unrest would spill over to other Gulf states

Iran would probably become stronger as well

Watch out Israel

Could trigger doomsday event


Possibility of happening - low
Seems like people of Saudi Arabia are content with the house of Saud. Government is also pretty good to ensure that discontent does not spread. Also Saudi Arabia is mostly homogeneous, Sunni Arab Muslim of the same sect. Do not have all different kinds of ethnic backgrounds and sects/denominations fighting each other, holding century old grudges like in Syria and Iraq which fuel the unrest.
 
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Consequences of Saudi Civil War similar to Iraq and Syria

ISIS or Al Qaeda would take advantage, become sronger

The unrest would spill over to other Gulf states

Iran would probably become stronger as well

Watch out Israel

Could trigger doomsday event


Possibility of happening - low
Seems like people of Saudi Arabia are content with the house of Saud. Government is also pretty good to ensure that discontent does not spread. Also Saudi Arabia is mostly homogeneous, Sunni Arab Muslim of the same sect. Do not have all different kinds of ethnic backgrounds and sects/denominations fighting each other, holding century old grudges like in Syria and Iraq which fuel the unrest.

Large swathes of eastern Saudi Arabia - oil producing regions - is Shia Arabs, who face significant discrimination and oppression.

Also, there is a huge population of abused and mistreated foreign laborers - mostly South Asians - present in the country, and they do most of the manual/menial work and are kept segregated from the Saudi citizenry. They are a potentially combustible group of outsiders.
 
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