Saudi Arabia is lost in 1979

Well, the new government would probably ally with the US at first, but the populace will likely have great respect for Tehran. Largely, it depends on what East Arabia's political situation is like-what ideology its leaders follow, and whether they remain popular with their citizens or not.

I think in the case of Wahabis taking over the west, East Arabia will, by contrast, end up a secular, authoritarian republic propped up by the US. Something like Turkey at the time; for super-extra bonus points, make it a member of NATO!
 

Keenir

Banned
Of course, Tehran will almost certainly encourage anti-US sentiment in the new Shia state...

why? if they're just then having their Revolution, it can't be because of the hostage crisis.

(if because of the Shah, yes that's a hurdle - but its not insurmountable)
 
This scenario could end up with Saudi Arabia being divided into three nations-the Republic/Kingdom of the Hejaz in the west, East Arabia, and in the center, Wahhabi Arabia, which after a few years would probably bear a striking resemblence to Taliban-era Afghanistan.

Would'nt Wahabi/Central Arabia have the problem of the population essentially dying out pretty quickly?

While their are likely Oasises for populations to congregate around, I don't think the country could sustain itself, being in the middle of a desert surrounded by countries that hate it and having a policy that pretty much makes it isolated from the world.

I wonder, in such a scenario if in the 90's Hejaz and East Arabia might essentially split the no-almost-empty territory up between themselves, quickly killing anyone still their, thus eliminating the 'Wahabi threat'.
 
why? if they're just then having their Revolution, it can't be because of the hostage crisis.

(if because of the Shah, yes that's a hurdle - but its not insurmountable)

If we take the Grand Mosque siege as POD, that was in November 1979. The Shah fled in February.

And I highly doubt the events in Saudi Arabia would have much effect on Iran, at least at first-Wahhabists and Khomeinists, despite some similarities in belief system, tend to despise each other, so any wacked out thing the crazies in the former Saudi Arabia do will probably just be used by the Iranian regime as propaganda.
 
Would'nt Wahabi/Central Arabia have the problem of the population essentially dying out pretty quickly?

While their are likely Oasises for populations to congregate around, I don't think the country could sustain itself, being in the middle of a desert surrounded by countries that hate it and having a policy that pretty much makes it isolated from the world.

I wonder, in such a scenario if in the 90's Hejaz and East Arabia might essentially split the no-almost-empty territory up between themselves, quickly killing anyone still their, thus eliminating the 'Wahabi threat'.

Yes, Central Arabia would start having problems really quickly...I'm actually not so sure about a Hejaz revolt (I've heard that there is some longstanding uneasiness in the area, but I'm not sure how far it goes), but if there was one, this would likely be the result.

Of course, even if the Wahhabis don't loose anything beyond East Arabia, it will still be a major disaster for them.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
To me this is possible but not particularly likely-perhaps if more of the rebels escape and it becomes widely known that the Grand Mosque was retaken with the help of French troops...

Well, to be fair there weren't French troops in the Mosque. According to Seige of Mecca, there were three French anti-terrorism experts bussed into Mecca in secret, even though that was a big deal as well.
 
Well, to be fair there weren't French troops in the Mosque. According to Seige of Mecca, there were three French anti-terrorism experts bussed into Mecca in secret, even though that was a big deal as well.

I read in one book (think it was Inside the Kingdom but I'm not sure-it was when I was in high school) that the Grand Mosque was retaken with the help of French Commandos who underwent a prefunctionary "conversion to Islam". Of course, Inside the Kingdom was a memior so the author could have just been repeating a rumor-MaCaulay's book is probably more accurate.
 
Well, to be fair there weren't French troops in the Mosque. According to Seige of Mecca, there were three French anti-terrorism experts bussed into Mecca in secret, even though that was a big deal as well.

Its a tad... controversial. The version you present is the version that I tend to put my faith in. But there were rumors, especially in the days immediately after the crisis, that the building had been stormed by French commandos, after a nominal conversion to islam. Not the most reliable of rumors, but it held some currency in the region...
 

MacCaulay

Banned
I read in one book (think it was Inside the Kingdom but I'm not sure-it was when I was in high school) that the Grand Mosque was retaken with the help of French Commandos who underwent a prefunctionary "conversion to Islam". Of course, Inside the Kingdom was a memior so the author could have just been repeating a rumor-MaCaulay's book is probably more accurate.

According to Seige of Mecca, the Westerners involved in the seige who did the whole "conversion to Islam" were helicopter pilots that they'd been using for a few years, which the Saudis had on hand to flesh out their own strength. I believe that is where that probably came from. The book did mention one CIA source under an assumed name who flew a helicopter over the Grand Mosque during the first hours and was really the first person to give the CIA any inkling as to what was happening since the Saudi government clamped down so hard on news coming out of the city.

I hope that helps.
 
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