San Stefano borders enforced in 1878 - consequences for Turkey's future? For western Balkans?

[raharris1973]

A simple question – If San Stefano treaty is enforced giving Big Bulgaria two seacoasts on the Black Sea and Aegean Sea, what happens the large area of non-contiguous Ottoman territory that remains? Austria-Hungary had a claim to occupy, possibly, annex Bosnia, and maybe Sanjak of Novi Pazar, but there’s more territory involved, fringes of Macedonia, Kosovo, Albania, Epirus, Thessaly, an additional peninsula in the Aegean. What happens to it? How is Ottoman authority sustained or who inherits it and how is that decided?

Further – Would it be safe to assume the border of Bulgaria and Turkish Thrace set by the Treaty would become permanent?

 

[raharris1973]

I was the one who supported the idea that this would permanently settle the Turkish-Bulgarian border in Thrace. My rationale is that the large Bulgaria is largely satiated versus Turkey and doesn't find another war with Turkey to be worth, and finds no Russian encouragement of it anyway. Also, the Turks find no encouragement to launch a war to adjust the border with Bulgaria, despite its imperfections, being a little bit closer to the capital than OTL's, because, the partners it found for OTL's second Balkan War of 1913, (Serbia, Rumania, Greece) were much weaker and less steady in the 1870s and 1880s.

I think Turkey would retain its authority over Greece, the nearer Aegean islands, and possibly, the Salonica tridented peninsula, just a short hop over the Aegean. By contrast, I think the non-contiguous lands south, west, and northwest of Big Bulgaria will be almost instant lost to the Ottomans to Greece, a possible independent Albania or one that is an Italian or Austrian protectorate, with Kosovo lost to Serbia, Bosnia-Hercegovina lost to Austria-Hungary, and he Sanjak of Novi Pazar lost to any combination of Austria-Hungary, Montenegro, and Serbia.

 

[goumaister]

My rationale is that the large Bulgaria is largely satiated versus Turkey

Well except Salonika is staying in Ottoman hands which definitely leads to a new war down the line. On the rest I agree as the Great Powers will carve out the Balkans completely out of the Ottoman Empire, outside Thrace, and try to balance the powerful Bulgarian state.
More than likely Serbia would get parts of Bosnia for that exact reason and would be pulled under Austrian "protection". Maybe it fuses with Montenegro and gets Northern Albania depending on the Austrians will. Maybe the Austrians prefer a free Albania which they can control easier.
Greece would get screwed if Albania is preferred as the Austrian vassal, more likely losing the northern parts of Epirus, maybe even Ioannina, to them but they could get Crete sooner as a compensation plus some islands and Thessaly.

TTL Balkan wars would be definitely be a spark for WW1 as the Great Powers would be more intertwined in the Balkan area . I see different alliance to OTL though as more likely Greece vs Bulgaria is the main focus and Serbia will depend on the relations with Austria-Hungary. If Russia keeps Bulgaria under its influence will back them but maybe Bulgaria has eyes for Constantinople as per OTL and that would lead to other web of alliances to be formed.

 

[Vinization]

I wonder if there could be any important effects in Russia itself? The war cost them tens of thousands of lives, I doubt they liked the OTL result (a tiny vassalized Bulgaria), to put it mildly.

Could the last years of Alexander II's reign be a little different?

@alexmilman

 

[America'sFuhrer]

Italy, will want a slice of the cake, which I could see being a small Montenegro and at least influence in Albania, maybe Italy claims the spot of protecting Albanian Christians and perhaps direct control over Vlore. The borders are just invited a second war or demands of concessions, which Italy received none of.

Austria-Hungary is going to taking Bosnia-Herzegovina and Novi Pazar. Holding Novi Pazar will kneecap Greater Serbian ideas, as Montenegro and Serbia will be physically separated by A-H. Serbia will have to be settled between Russia and A-H, but I could see Russia dropping Serbia in exchange for their large Bulgarian friend to the south.

I could see Greece also being in those talks, as they want any land that is touching their borders (and more). If Britain wanted Greece to be strengthened to compete with Russian influence in Bulgaria, they will back the Greeks up. Then again, Greece might be tossed to the side as one of the net losers in the Treaty, winning nothing while their irridentia is grabbed by other nations.

 

[alexmilman]

I wonder if there could be any important effects in Russia itself? The war cost them tens of thousands of lives, I doubt they liked the OTL result (a tiny vassalized Bulgaria), to put it mildly.

Could the last years of Alexander II's reign be a little different?

@alexmilman

Growing some brain power in his age is extremely unlikely and mess on the Balkans was just a small potato comparing to the mess into which he already put Russia. I’d guess that if he got away with San Stefano, his credential in the Russian society would be slightly better but not among the unhappy ones. There was plenty of a justified criticism regarding conduct of a war and the revolutionaries would not care about Bulgaria one way or another.

Economy, thank to the “wise” taxation policies and the way how serfdom was abolished, had been steadily going down the drain, the nobility as a meaningful class with some power had been gone, the peasants were going from bad to worse, expenses of the Grand Dukes were not controlled, post-reform army was full of problems and even those indicated by the war were not seriously addressed. “Intelligencia” (including educated liberal nobility with some kind of more or less useful employment) was unhappy with not having more reforms and not seeing too many positive results from the existing ones. The list is going on. What exactly San Stefano would fix?

 

[Vinization]

Growing some brain power in his age is extremely unlikely and mess on the Balkans was just a small potato comparing to the mess into which he already put Russia. I’d guess that if he got away with San Stefano, his credential in the Russian society would be slightly better but not among the unhappy ones. There was plenty of a justified criticism regarding conduct of a war and the revolutionaries would not care about Bulgaria one way or another.

Economy, thank to the “wise” taxation policies and the way how serfdom was abolished, had been steadily going down the drain, the nobility as a meaningful class with some power had been gone, the peasants were going from bad to worse, expenses of the Grand Dukes were not controlled, post-reform army was full of problems and even those indicated by the war were not seriously addressed. “Intelligencia” (including educated liberal nobility with some kind of more or less useful employment) was unhappy with not having more reforms and not seeing too many positive results from the existing ones. The list is going on. What exactly San Stefano would fix?

I don't know, maybe an extra dose of prestige could change a couple of little things here and there?

 

[raharris1973]

Well except Salonika is staying in Ottoman hands which definitely leads to a new war down the line. On the rest I agree as the Great Powers will carve out the Balkans completely out of the Ottoman Empire, outside Thrace, and try to balance the powerful Bulgarian state.
More than likely Serbia would get parts of Bosnia for that exact reason and would be pulled under Austrian "protection". Maybe it fuses with Montenegro and gets Northern Albania depending on the Austrians will. Maybe the Austrians prefer a free Albania which they can control easier.
Greece would get screwed if Albania is preferred as the Austrian vassal, more likely losing the northern parts of Epirus, maybe even Ioannina, to them but they could get Crete sooner as a compensation plus some islands and Thessaly.

TTL Balkan wars would be definitely be a spark for WW1 as the Great Powers would be more intertwined in the Balkan area . I see different alliance to OTL though as more likely Greece vs Bulgaria is the main focus and Serbia will depend on the relations with Austria-Hungary. If Russia keeps Bulgaria under its influence will back them but maybe Bulgaria has eyes for Constantinople as per OTL and that would lead to other web of alliances to be formed.

Who is fighting Turkey to take Salonica? Bulgaria or Greece?

I honestly feel like Bulgaria would be too busy guarding other directions to start a war over this objective.

the Greeks would have more motive to start a war for this land, and may be able to try an attack if they build enough navy. Odds are the ottomans would beat them though until the 1910s and then only if the Greeks gained decided naval superiority and the ottomans distracted on other fronts.

I also think the a lot of the population of Salonica enclave and especially Salonica city will be pro Ottoman administration because it will be Jewish, with that stream of opinion bolstered by refugee Muslims from rumelia and elsewhere in the Balkans.

maybe I shouldn’t rule it out, but I assumed away Ottoman initiated aggression to create a land bridge in Europe between their Salonica and Thrace enclaves. I figure they wouldn’t be naive enough to think the European great powers would allow them to keep any territory in Europe even if they won it militarily.

 

[alexmilman]

I don't know, maybe an extra dose of prestige could change a couple of little things here and there?

Actually, outside almost negligible effect domestically, this can have a very serious impact internationally:
1. San Stefano can be augmented by implementation of the Russian (voluntary) pre-war promise to AH regarding Bosnia-Herzegovina, which would result in the continued friendly relations.
2. San Stefano mean no Berlin Congress and no alienation with Germany over Bismarck forcing Russia to stick to its pre-war obligations (which, in Russian public opinion amounted to betrayal). Russian-German relations remain strong and friendly.
3. With ##1 & 2 there is no reason for Russia to get closer to France. I’d assume that within this framework Germany may serve as a source of the loans and even if there are some French loans (AII already stuck out his neck to prevent 2nd Franco-German war so the French may consider usefulness of the Russian services as a mediator) Russia does not need to take sided OTL-style.
4. The Brits are getting “up yours” from German-Russian-AH block and this means that their role in the European affairs very seriously decreased and this includes their prestige with the Ottomans. They are still a dominating naval and colonial power but that’s it.
5. In that framework it does not seriously matter who exactly is a king of Bulgaria because being pro-<whatever> still means being pro Dreikaiserbund.
6. Having a single powerful (by the regional standards) state prevents the future squabble between the Balkan states and excludes a need for AH and Russia to take sides.
7. Russian support for AH annexation of B&H means that the Serbs can’t rely on the Russian support in their bickering with the Hapsburgs. Which means that OTL casus beli for WWI is absent and, with the friendly relations retained, WWI is not happening or happens with a completely different scenario because in Europe it becomes impossible (“Dreikaiserbund starts in the morning and by the dinner time the war is over and everybody going to eat before dinner is getting cold”😂) .

 

[casaubon]

How Muslim is this Bulgaria? Without the opportunity to gradually ethnically cleanse the region over time isn't the Muslim population of Big Bulgaria hovering around 50%? I'm tempted to say there will be future wars caused by internal unrest in the near future.

 

[goumaister]

Who is fighting Turkey to take Salonica? Bulgaria or Greece?

I honestly feel like Bulgaria would be too busy guarding other directions to start a war over this objective.

Bulgaria would, IMHO at least, go for Salonika and maybe even Constantinople 100%. They have no rival in the Balkans. Serbia and Greece together would have half the population and economy of Bulgaria after San Stefano and that is if they get some land themselves by that treaty or subsequent treaties. Their ambition in an Age of Nationalism would be as the Greeks to take the City , the capital of Orthodoxy. And with some reforms as they did OTL they could have a massive army.

Exactly because Bulgaria was going to be unrivaled in the Balkans I proposed the other powers to balance the rest so at least uniting their forces they would put Bulgaria down, without the Ottomans I mean they are a different kind of power. So if the other two countries get shafted it's basically game over and Bulgaria was destined to take both Salonika and Constantinople and maybe even unite the Balkans in a Federation against Austria, the Ottomans and Italy.

Greece would be too weak to start any war really but seeing the 1897 war one could argue that an Greco-Ottoman war for Crete is inevitable due to the Cretans spirit and constant revolutions. Now how that war would go is a whole other story, I mean the Greeks would be more sea focused TTL if they lose Macedonia and they had a great naval tradition and trained by the British.

I don't now much on Serbia but leaving them without anything that they wanted is not going to go well for the stability of the area.
Salonica was a majority Greek city so even if they get a lot of refugees the Greeks would make at least 40% of the population. Now if they would be against the Ottomans is up to if the Ottomans reform their judicial system and give the Christians some equality in the eyes of the law and more importantly if they would actually enforce those laws.

 

[fraa Jad]

Salonica was plurality Jewish at the time, not Greek. Maybe majority, around 50% in any case. I remember a census around 1900 and it was Jews around 50%, then Greeks, Turks and Bulgarians.

 

[Sarthak]

That bulgaria is around muslim majority, with ~40% of the pop being Turks and Greeks. Bad news for Bulgarian internal stability

 

[fraa Jad]

That's why it was a sham of a treaty: Russia never intended to uphold it. And it was not in Bulgaria's interest anyway -- Russia gave Nish to Serbia, Northern Dobruja to Romania just to create conflict on the Balkans (also to get closer access to the straits because they though of Romania, Bulgaria and Serbia as vassal states (which the latter pretty much was, and they gave Norther Dobruja to Romania (which they did not want and resented being burdened with -- both the Nish area and northern Dobruja being Bulgarian majority areas) because they saw it as a step towards controlling the straits). It was a preliminary treaty drafted to create more conflict on the Balkans.

 

[fraa Jad]

That bulgaria is around muslim majority, with ~40% of the pop being Turks and Greeks. Bad news for Bulgarian internal stability

Most Bulgarian revolutionaries didn't care about religion. (well some did in an abstract political way). I can think of one , and I don't like him. I kind of hate him.

Why would that be a problem, in your opinion?