Refreshing ideas from here:
Before attempting some sort of timeline to combine these ideas, could it be even feasible? Assume that somehow an anti-Nazi German government takes power after a coup was clever enough to attempt such a ploy- would it be feasible for them to tie up both the Soviets and the Western Allies by spreading chaos by allowing different resistance movements to spring up in the areas they're abandoning?
Part 1
Breaking this into several parts because it is long.
The German government will make a peace offer which the Allies will immediately reject. Eisenhower will repeat the Allied demand: unconditional surrender.
Informally, the new German government will likely receive word on what to expect in terms of "unconditional surrender". They will be told that all of Germany will be occupied by the Allied powers, that all of its gains since 1933 will be reversed, and that the final disposition will still be decided by the Allies.
This will probably be done fairly quickly in late July and early August.
At that point, they will need to make a decision on what to do. Negotiation obviously won't work. Continuing to fight will still lead to defeat. The only option I see is that the Goerdeler government decides it is in the best interest to facilitate British and American forces and delay the Red Army as much as possible. It will also want to make sure the German satellites get the best deal possible they can. They will also look for opportunities to split the West from the Soviets as much as possible. They hope by creating facts on the ground, they can save as much of Germany as possible from Bolshevism.
New military plans are made. As much as possible, German forces will withdraw from the West. Holding actions will be done to extricate as many German forces possible to send to the east. Any isolated German garrisons on the Atlantic ports wll be ordered to surrender. Evacuation from Holland will begin. German forces in Italy will be told to retreat to the alps and hold Austria.
In the East, the goal is to minimize Soviet influence. The new government will contact Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria and esentially tell them to save themselves after a certain date, but to allow German forces to withdraw to better defend Germany. As German troops make plans to abandon the Balkans, all three countries begin making peace overtures.
Bulgarian PM Ivan Bagrianov is already pro-Western, and Bulgaria is only at war with Britain and America, not the USSR. The only reason Bulgaria did not make a peace before the Soviets invaded is that Bagrianov wanted to be neutral and not declare war on Germany, probably because of feared reprisals. In this scenario, there is no such fear. Bulgaria agrees to all Western demands. In early August, Bulgaria makes peace and declares war on Germany. Out of fear that the Red Army will occupy Bulgaria anyway, the British agree to send a parachute regiment to Sofia. Bulgaria will avoid the fate of being a Soviet satellite.
The next to leave will be Romania. King Michael's Coup moves up one or two weeks. Unfortunately, history will be the same for them. The Red Army still occupies Romania.
The Hungarians will hold out until the British 8th Army from Italy arrives. They are bolstered by German units retreating through Hungary. Hungary will probably continue to fight until September or October when British units can likely enter western Hungary in force. Most likely result for Hungary is OTL's Austria - Hungary is divided into Allied occupation zones with east of Danube controlled by Soviets and west of Danube controlled by Soviets. Most likely, resolution of peace with Hungary must wait until Stalin dies at which point it is agreed Hungary is to be a united, but neutral country in the 1950s.
Part 2
Yugoslavia is temporarily occupied by the Red Army in the south, and the British in the north to keep their logistics line open to Hungary. Tito is PM under the King. The political situation in Yugoslavia is more open than IOTL, but Tito will eventually do a self coup once the British occupation forces leave - but this may not be until early 1946.
In early August, the Poles launch Operation Tempest and seize control of Warsaw. Rather than fight the Poles like Hitler did, the Goerdeler government decides it's a heaven sent opportunity to divide the Allies. German forces abandon most of Poland to the Polish Home Army and take up defensive positions along the Oder. Having liberated Warsaw and much of Poland west of the Vistula, the Polish Government in Exile returns to Warsaw and the British agree to divert Polish airborne units to Poland. Stalin fumes. While the Red Army will begin to enter Poland, most of Western Poland is now in control by the government and Western officers are likely also in Poland to coordinate strategy. It will be much harder for the Red Army to disarm Polish partisans and establish their own control.
In September, the Allies launch Operation Market Garden. When word reaches Berlin that Arnhem Bridge is seized, they order the German forces to retreat or surrender. Many units have already been stripped from the West and sent to East to hold off the Soviets. The Allies pierce the Rhine at multiple locations, meeting soft resistance. Most units fight only briefly to retain honor and then surrender, although some units continue to offer significant resistance. Western Allies enter Germany going at same speed as they did in April 1945 at this point. Despite some supply problems, the lack of heavy fighting means priority can be sent for fuel instead of ammunition. Reports are that German morale has collapsed in the West.
Stalin is really angry now, accusing the Allies of making a secret deal with the German government, which is denied. The Polish goverment returned to Warsaw, British troops in Hungary, and a Bulgaria free of Red Army troops is greatly upsetting his plans. Furthermore, the boundaries of the occupation zones in Germany have not been finalized. The more land occupied by the western Allies will likely mean a smaller Soviet zone.
After Allied forces cross the Elbe, the Goerdeler government once again contacts the Allies and announces Germany is prepared to accept the terms of unconditional surrender. V-E Day occurs in early November.
Part 3
Occupation zones in Germany are similar to OTL. Czechoslovakia is liberated by American troops on the Bohemian plateau, but by the Red Army in Slovakia. While the Red Army leaves Czechoslovakia as IOTL, the establishment of local Communist officials in Slovakia lead to a separatist crisis later in 1947. Stalin reluctantly admits the Slovaks can't live under Czech domination and supports the new regime.
Poland is the major point of postwar contention. The Polish government returning to Warsaw ruins everything. Stalin need supply lines through Poland for his occupation forces. The Western Allies push Poland to agree to Stalin's border changes to try to appease him. To retain Western support, the Poles agree. Poland's eastern border is more or less as OTL although perhaps with some modifications. The Soviets are also given firm commitments on several "corridors" through Poland which they can use for supply purposes without interference by the Poles. A suitable arrangement is made with heavy legalistic conditions and attributes, more or less to Stalin's advantage. But most of Poland is spared long term Soviet occupation. It is hoped peace with Germany will come quick so that Soviet use of the "corridors" will end.
Soviet position in Eastern Europe is much less than IOTL. By 1948, it'll have Romania, Slovakia, eastern Hungary, and Tito's Yugoslavia. Bulgaria, Bohemia, Austria, and western Hungary are outside its grasp. Poland too is outside of Stalin's sphere, but with a complicated legal relationship.
I think Stalin's main goal is to legitimate what conquests he has with Western acceptance of the status quo in Romania and Slovakia, and neutralization in the rest of Europe. He wants America out of Europe. Soviet position in Germany is not sustainable without control of Poland and the rest of eastern Europe. So instead he pushes for the best deal he can - immense reparations, disarmament, German neutrality, and a push for some kind of Soviet role in a pan-European defense structure. If possible, a partition of Germany into "natural" regions - a Rhineland, Bavaria, and Saxony. I think Stalin will get a lot of what he desires, but not everything. Peace treaty with Germany is signed in early 1950s.
Blackfox's neat ideas go off of two main premises: A) the new regime knows that defeat is inevitable and cannot be bargained away, B) However, it can manipulate facts on the ground to make the postwar "less bad" for itself.
Blackfox's idea envisions a "tilt" to the western allies.
Another option for the Germans is manipulating the facts on the ground to maximize the distraction factor for all allies, increasing their suspicions of each other and giving them something else to worry about besides focused pursuit:
A) So, as in Black Fox's suggestion, yield power in Eastern Europe to satellite regimes desirous of dealing with the west- Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria, and to the non-communist resistance in occupied Poland and what's left of the Baltics. Might as well free all Chetniks in Yugoslavia too and tip them off to where any heavy weapons are abandoned.
But in the west and south of Europe
B) Reverse this process. In Italy, France and Greece, give the Communist resistance leaders a head start by freeing them, leaving them heavy weapons and control of the jails housing noncommunist prisoners.
This sets up a political minefield, and potentially a diplomatic one for the advancing Soviets *and* advancing western Allies. They need to divert some effort and resources to either mediating between often fratricidal national/local political factions or crushing disfavored ones. Each time the latter option is chosen by the Soviets or Western Allies, it creates major opportunity for the other side to take offense & begin getting angry at someone besides Germany.
With this approach, Romania, it is true will be occupied by force before it has any effect, but Poland will at least become a political mess for the Soviets even if in several weeks Soviet columns can physically range across all Polish territory. Bulgaria could work out as Blackfox suggests.
Meanwhile, the Greek Communists could be tempted to dicker with would be British occupiers while massacring their local political opponents and setting up administrations. The Communist Italian partisans and French resisters will make their own power plays while probably being more circumspect and less bloody than the Greeks. By the time the western forces are ready to press into Germany in strength, they've had time (a few weeks) to start worrying about the potential for Communist domination in France and Italy and continental dominance by the USSR. Meanwhile, they will likely not be satisfied by Soviet policies in Romania and Poland.
Likewise, by the time Soviet forces ready to overrun the German border in strength are in position, they have plenty of time to get suspicious of and dissatisfied with the Western Allies and non-communist factions they are colluding with in both Central and Western Europe.
This all gives Germany a little more bargaining power in dealing with Allied commanders, possibly allowing for more escapes and for more thorough civilian evacuations of some imperiled areas.
Before attempting some sort of timeline to combine these ideas, could it be even feasible? Assume that somehow an anti-Nazi German government takes power after a coup was clever enough to attempt such a ploy- would it be feasible for them to tie up both the Soviets and the Western Allies by spreading chaos by allowing different resistance movements to spring up in the areas they're abandoning?
