Salisbury doesn't die at Orléans in 1428?

[Bytor]

What if Thomas Montagu, 4th Earl of Salisbury, had not died at the Siege of Orléans in 1428 and remained in charge of the siege and army, instead of the much more cautious William de la Pole, 1st Duke of Suffolk?

Would Salisbury, a more talented commander than Suffolk, have been able to defeat Jeanne D'Arc, gain control of Orléans and the Loire valley, reducing Charles VII's territory even further, instead of him making it to Reims? Perhaps by making the French nobility continue to ignore Jeanne's advice that in OTL resulted in significant changes in French tactics and strategies in later battles.

 

[CaptainShadow]

I'm not sure him sticking around could change the disaster that was Patay. We might be seeing a better English position in France long term, especially if Salisbury's able to get some victories the English could not, maybe delaying or butterflying the 1435 treaty of Arras.

Might be he's appointed Governor of France instead of York after Bedford kicks the bucket, butterflying the man's alienation from the Beauforts. Otoh seeing him, Talbot and York maurading around in France could be interesting.

He might be able to counter Winchester effectively taking the reins of government after 1435 but I'm not sure that's likely.

 

[Bytor]

I'm not sure him sticking around could change the disaster that was Patay. We might be seeing a better English position in France long term, especially if Salisbury's able to get some victories the English could not, maybe delaying or butterflying the 1435 treaty of Arras.

The English winning the Siege of Orléans would cause multiple butterflies with Patay, most notably the disgrace of Jeanne D'Arc and Jean II, Duke of Alençon probably thus refusing her advice, assuming she even survives the siege. If the English capture her, and then find out she's just a peasant, they'd likely execute her as they often did with other captured soldiers not of the nobility, if not burn her as a heretic as in OTL. That means Alençon doesn't hear of her and thus never goes early to Chinon to become the commander of the army for Patay, likely chosing to remain in Normandy to fight the English there, probably unsuccessfully, and likely still becoming the "poorest man in France".

The other commanders, de Vignolles, de Chabannes, de Xaintrailles, fight the battle using the traditional French tactics that lost them Clercy, Poitiers, Agincourt, and others.

Of course, that's assuming that the Battle of Patay still even happens, as with an English victory at Orléans they likely press southwest towards Chinon to try and capture Charles not-yet-VII.

 

[CaptainShadow]

If the English capture her, and then find out she's just a peasant, they'd likely execute her as they often did with other captured soldiers not of the nobility, if not burn her as a heretic as in OTL.

@material_boy can correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't policy keeping people alive in the Lancastrian phase?

Especially given she's a woman. Heresy is possible though.

 

[material_boy]

Salisbury would provide the English with strong leadership, but he would still be in a precarious situation. Bedford had rejected an offer from the city of Orléans to surrender to Burgundy, and this had temporarily alienated the duke. Burgundy's subsequent withdrawal from the Loire campaign left the English severely undermanned both at the siege and at various defensive positions across the region. The English simply lacked the manpower to adequately defend the territory they'd conquered without Burgundian support. This had at least as much to do with the French victory at Orléans, and the campaign that followed it, as Suffolk's leadership.

That said, if Salisbury does manage to successfully defend against Joan of Arc at Orléans, then the whole course of the war shifts. Bedford had rejected the offer to surrender because he thought the terms were too generous and that the city was set to fall in the near future. Under the rules of war at the time, taking the city by force would allow the English to sack the city.

Orléans had tremendous importance to the dauphinist cause. Its strategic position would have allowed the English to project power across the Loire and strike deep into Armagnac territory in the south. It also had huge symbolic value as the capital of the duchy of Orléans, given that the duke of Orléans had been at the head of the Armagnac faction for more than a decade before Charles became the dauphin and took control of the party. Indeed, it was a widely held opinion at the time that Bedford would conquer the whole of France if he could take the city. The threat was so severe that some figures within the dauphinist camp were advising Charles to flee to Scotland at the same time Joan made her way to Charles's court.

So, if Bedford were right that the city were close to falling, and if Salisbury could throw off Joan, then the city falls and Lancastrian France may well be born. (I believe this is the most likely POD for an English victory in the Hundred Years War, as @CaptainShadow well knows.)

@material_boy can correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't policy keeping people alive in the Lancastrian phase?

Especially given she's a woman. Heresy is possible though.

Yeah, I think she'd just be given straight over to the church. A woman in man's clothes talking about hearing the voice of God and all that ...

 

[Bytor]

Yeah, I think she'd just be given straight over to the church. A woman in man's clothes talking about hearing the voice of God and all that ...

Do you think it was her successes against the English that made them burn her, rather than the heresy? Such that getting captured this early on at Orléans they wouldn't be angry enough to burn her, yet, just send her to a nunnery?

 

[material_boy]

Do you think it was her successes against the English that made them burn her, rather than the heresy? Such that getting captured this early on at Orléans they wouldn't be angry enough to burn her, yet, just send her to a nunnery?

Did heretical women get sent to nunneries? I think they'd probably still burn her and we'd all have never known her name.