Salazar restored the Portuguese monarchy in 1951

Being Portuguese, this what-if fascinates me: In our timeline, in 1951, Salazar considered restoring the monarchy but, ultimately, didn't do it. What if he did restore the monarchy and Duarte Nuno became King of Portugal?
You can read about Duarte Nuno in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duarte_Nuno,_Duke_of_Braganza.
Would King Duarte Nuno be able to force a liberalization of the Estado Novo? Would the restored monarchy survive until today? Overall, how would this affect Portugal?
 

Lusitania

Donor
This requires a little background information.

Salazar idea of reestablishing the monarchy was in large pArt to avoid having a president who was hostile to him and National Union party from dismissing him.

The Portuguese constitution at the time provided a lot of powers to the president. From 1928-1951 the Portuguese had only witnessed one President. President Carmona had since 1932 let Prime minister Salazar run the country and practically rubber stamp all of Salazar policies.

In 1948 during the presidential election President Carmona had faced real opposition for first time but the government had prevented the other president contender general Matos from properly campaigning and Matos withdrew.

In 1951 with the death of President Carmona Salazar faced similar situation. Allow elections and risk the chance of election of President hostile to him or restore the monarchy and then not worry about president. The determine factor was unknown qualities of D. Duarte Nuno. Could Salazar control him? Would King Duarte oppose him and strip Salazar of power?

Those question plagued Salazar and in the end he felt the risk was too high and instead decided to go with Presidency.

Note: when it looked like a president opposed to him would be elected Salazar changed the rules and instead of president being elected by people the law was changed to president being elected by Portuguese legislature which was controlled by National Union.

I will weigh in a little later with some speculation about what ifs.
 
Duarte Nuno AFAICT is conservative ennough that he might not cause a problem (leaving aside the issues certain minorities in the Portuguese monarchist movement have with him). It's his son, Duarte Pio, that is the big unknown, particularly if he takes a juancarlista-like direction. It also does not preclude having the monarchy overthrown, again, due to association with Salazar, and giving the Communists a stronger hand than OTL in governing the country - that is unless the Communists moderated so much as a result of the Eurocommunist trend that it is basically the SPD in all but name, with Sweden as their paradigmatic model.
 
Duarte Nuno AFAICT is conservative ennough that he might not cause a problem (leaving aside the issues certain minorities in the Portuguese monarchist movement have with him). It's his son, Duarte Pio, that is the big unknown, particularly if he takes a juancarlista-like direction. It also does not preclude having the monarchy overthrown, again, due to association with Salazar, and giving the Communists a stronger hand than OTL in governing the country - that is unless the Communists moderated so much as a result of the Eurocommunist trend that it is basically the SPD in all but name, with Sweden as their paradigmatic model.
Duarte Nuno (and Duarte Pio) would only be acceptable to Salazar if he manages to hide his democratic sympathies.
Duarte Nuno had good relationships with figures of the opposition including the centre-left.
 

Lusitania

Donor
Duarte Nuno AFAICT is conservative ennough that he might not cause a problem (leaving aside the issues certain minorities in the Portuguese monarchist movement have with him). It's his son, Duarte Pio, that is the big unknown, particularly if he takes a juancarlista-like direction. It also does not preclude having the monarchy overthrown, again, due to association with Salazar, and giving the Communists a stronger hand than OTL in governing the country - that is unless the Communists moderated so much as a result of the Eurocommunist trend that it is basically the SPD in all but name, with Sweden as their paradigmatic model.
Duarte Pio served in colonial War as helicopter pilot and was sent home due to his voicing some opinions that were considered critical of government.
 

Lusitania

Donor
Ok now that I have a little time going to give my two cents on speculative nature of the thread and imagine Salazar deciding to re-establish the monarchy.

Salazar would of needed to have good feeling about Duarte Nuno to have brought him in. Either Duarte Nuno must provide Salazar with impression of his support (maybe because he really want to be king) or some element of the conservative movement needs to be brought onside by re-establishing the monarchy.

King Nuno would of then had to taken a wait and see approach and not rock the boat as we say. In the mid 1960s with Salazar falling ill would of his chance to guide the country towards democracy. If under his guidance the country slowly become a true democracy then king Nuno would of been widely herald as restorer of democracy and the country stayed a monarchy. If he stayed quiet and events happen as per iotl including fall of estado novo in 1974 it would of been hard for him to keep the throne.
 
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Duarte Nuno (and Duarte Pio) would only be acceptable to Salazar if he manages to hide his democratic sympathies.
Duarte Nuno had good relationships with figures of the opposition including the centre-left.
In that case, a Sweden-esque paradigm could work for the monarchy as well as the post-Salazar regime if the Communists end up like the SPD or Swedish Social Democrats in all but name. Would need a massive butterfly net to make it work, but it's possible.
 
In that case, a Sweden-esque paradigm could work for the monarchy as well as the post-Salazar regime if the Communists end up like the SPD or Swedish Social Democrats in all but name. Would need a massive butterfly net to make it work, but it's possible.
It still requires that reformers take over the the communist party against the Stalinists, at a local level in order to have a lasting effect. This needs the supporters of PCP to be less suspicious of the private sector. It might require some social-Christian or liberal beliefs to permeate the landowners and factory owners with whom the communists had many grievances.
If the PCP becomes more centrist and loses the strong antagonism against the bourgeoisie, it might help cooperate with the all the social-Christians, small farmers and middle class voters of the centre-left, and dispel the deep distrust the centre-left had for the communists.
The Communist party would still likely shed some hard-liners.
 

Lusitania

Donor
It still requires that reformers take over the the communist party against the Stalinists, at a local level in order to have a lasting effect. This needs the supporters of PCP to be less suspicious of the private sector. It might require some social-Christian or liberal beliefs to permeate the landowners and factory owners with whom the communists had many grievances.
If the PCP becomes more centrist and loses the strong antagonism against the bourgeoisie, it might help cooperate with the all the social-Christians, small farmers and middle class voters of the centre-left, and dispel the deep distrust the centre-left had for the communists.
The Communist party would still likely shed some hard-liners.
If following Salazar’s stroke King Duarte leads the country to slow democracy and by 1980 we have full democracy with part or no provinces in Africa then the communists should of lost a lot of their softer supporters. While the remaining stay hardcore they not have chance to form government which should be Social Democrat or Socialist.
 
It still requires that reformers take over the the communist party against the Stalinists, at a local level in order to have a lasting effect. This needs the supporters of PCP to be less suspicious of the private sector. It might require some social-Christian or liberal beliefs to permeate the landowners and factory owners with whom the communists had many grievances.

Hmm, so before we get to a democratic-socialist/social-Christian PCP we'd probably have to tinker with Communist and Comintern politics. There is a possibility from a cursory reading of Wikipedia from the PCP's expulsion in 1938, but could we accentuate the breach by other means? For example, in order to have it less suspicious of the private sector, having it support the NEP so enthusiastically it would be seen as part of the so-called Right Opposition, thus leading to an earlier expulsion from the Comintern.
 
I sincerely doubt Salazar ever seriously considered restoring the monarchy. The man had been a committed republican at least since his time in the Portuguese Catholic Centre, and his correspondences with Marcello Caetano clearly show that he deliberately spread the rumours that he was secret monarchist as part of an elaborate political game to stabilize the Estado Novo. And while Salzar himself might be willing to consider the "regime question" to be "secondary to the interests of the nation", many others in the National Union were not. While the Estado Novo hierarchy did include a sizeable number of monarchists, conservative republicans defininitely outnumbered them by a very large margin.
 

Lusitania

Donor
I sincerely doubt Salazar ever seriously considered restoring the monarchy. The man had been a committed republican at least since his time in the Portuguese Catholic Centre, and his correspondences with Marcello Caetano clearly show that he deliberately spread the rumours that he was secret monarchist as part of an elaborate political game to stabilize the Estado Novo. And while Salzar himself might be willing to consider the "regime question" to be "secondary to the interests of the nation", many others in the National Union were not. While the Estado Novo hierarchy did include a sizeable number of monarchists, conservative republicans defininitely outnumbered them by a very large margin.

I agree, as I indicated it would of taken a strong POD for Salazar to follow through with his idea. Only reason that would of made sense if he felt it was the best option and had no other alternative.
 
Hmm, so before we get to a democratic-socialist/social-Christian PCP we'd probably have to tinker with Communist and Comintern politics. There is a possibility from a cursory reading of Wikipedia from the PCP's expulsion in 1938, but could we accentuate the breach by other means? For example, in order to have it less suspicious of the private sector, having it support the NEP so enthusiastically it would be seen as part of the so-called Right Opposition, thus leading to an earlier expulsion from the Comintern.
An early POD works, or rather multiple PODs, a more NEP friendly PCP, some societal changes in the upper class under the influence of the Catholic social teaching to ease the conditions of the communists supporters, several stabilizing monarchist models abroad (including some republics returning to monarchy), Duarte Nuno stating if he doesn't belief in interfering in the government (whatever it may be, I know it would sound like he would support Salazar, but it would be for public consumption and to look harmless), and a weakening of the conservative republican support for Salazar that forces him to rely more on monarchists.
 
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