Saladin Killed at the Battle of Montgisard?

In the 1177 Battle of Montgisard, Saladin's army was routed by Jerusalemite forces, and he only barely escaped. What would the consequences have been if he was killed in the aftermath of the battle? Would Saladin's realm have fragmented, even though he had (underage) male heirs? How long would the reprieve be for the Christian Outremer?
 

Md139115

Banned
In the 1177 Battle of Montgisard, Saladin's army was routed by Jerusalemite forces, and he only barely escaped. What would the consequences have been if he was killed in the aftermath of the battle? Would Saladin's realm have fragmented, even though he had (underage) male heirs? How long would the reprieve be for the Christian Outremer?

It’s funny, I actually wrote a couple thousand words for a TL with that exact POD (well, I had his fastest camel come down with mange before the battle so he wasn’t able to outrun the crusaders) but it crashed and burned before I was able to really do anything with it.

The short answer is that it would be a nasty mess for many years. When Saladin died in his ripe old age, there was still a violent succession war; here, we have Egypt probably making a play to get back the independence that Saladin had taken from them several years prior, we probably have one of Nur-ed-din’s relatives trying to get revenge, and we probably would have seen every last general in his army trying to gain power by “freeing” Saladin’s heirs and “serving” in their name.

The longer answer is that barring a few butterflies that really alter the situation, the Muslims of the Middle East have a major opportunity slip through their fingers. Poor King Baldwin was one of the few rulers of Jerusalem to actually have something between his ears, and while he would never risk the destruction of his army in a major battle, he can take some low-hanging fruit to consolidate the kingdom while enabling some key fortifications (especially the great castle under construction at Jacob’s Ford) to be completed or expanded. He never got that chance due to Saladin being able to control the terms of a potential engagement by his larger forces. Most importantly, if the Saracens are still divided during the reign of God’s Most Regal Idiot Godfrey, you butterfly away Hattin and the fall of Jerusalem.

Then there is the epic Saracen screw...

If there is still some division in the Muslim ranks and if there is still a functionally viable Kingdom of Jerusalem a century later, the Mongol Horde may very well be able to cut clean through to the Crusader cities on the Med, shredding Syria and splitting Anatolia off from the rest of the Islamic World. That’s not a scenario that one can really flesh out the full ramifications of, just that it would be epically bad to be a Muslim for several years if not decades.
 

Md139115

Banned
I actually wrote a very good death of Saladin. I might have to share that at least with someone to let them build from there.
 
It’s funny, I actually wrote a couple thousand words for a TL with that exact POD (well, I had his fastest camel come down with mange before the battle so he wasn’t able to outrun the crusaders) but it crashed and burned before I was able to really do anything with it.

The short answer is that it would be a nasty mess for many years. When Saladin died in his ripe old age, there was still a violent succession war; here, we have Egypt probably making a play to get back the independence that Saladin had taken from them several years prior, we probably have one of Nur-ed-din’s relatives trying to get revenge, and we probably would have seen every last general in his army trying to gain power by “freeing” Saladin’s heirs and “serving” in their name.

The longer answer is that barring a few butterflies that really alter the situation, the Muslims of the Middle East have a major opportunity slip through their fingers. Poor King Baldwin was one of the few rulers of Jerusalem to actually have something between his ears, and while he would never risk the destruction of his army in a major battle, he can take some low-hanging fruit to consolidate the kingdom while enabling some key fortifications (especially the great castle under construction at Jacob’s Ford) to be completed or expanded. He never got that chance due to Saladin being able to control the terms of a potential engagement by his larger forces. Most importantly, if the Saracens are still divided during the reign of God’s Most Regal Idiot Godfrey, you butterfly away Hattin and the fall of Jerusalem.

Then there is the epic Saracen screw...

If there is still some division in the Muslim ranks and if there is still a functionally viable Kingdom of Jerusalem a century later, the Mongol Horde may very well be able to cut clean through to the Crusader cities on the Med, shredding Syria and splitting Anatolia off from the rest of the Islamic World. That’s not a scenario that one can really flesh out the full ramifications of, just that it would be epically bad to be a Muslim for several years if not decades.
Thanks so much for the comprehensive answer. This sounds very plausible.
In the interim of chaos, would jerusalem have opportunities for relatively sustained expansion, or just consolidation of existing territories?
 

Md139115

Banned
In the interim of chaos, would jerusalem have opportunities for relatively sustained expansion, or just consolidation of existing territories?

I’m not an expert on the subject by any means, but it occurs to me that Baldwin had a pretty good idea just how weak his kingdom was relative to the Muslims around him and that it would stay that way until enough Europeans immigrated to give him bodies for a bigger army. I see him dumping the whole treasury into trying to consolidate what he has while directing Reynard and his fellow lunatics to keep the pot stirring by attacking anyone who is getting too large.
 

Md139115

Banned
I'd love to see it.

Here it is...


“Are you sure?”


“Yes, my lord, see that swelling here above the right ear? Definitely mange. We caught it early though. All we need to do is just wash him down frequently and keep him outside by himself.”


“But he’s not going to be useable for days!”


“Well, technically, you can use him, but the ticks would probably spread to your bodyguard’s camels. Sahib, your stables are vast, befitting a great lord such as yourself, and you don’t use this camel much anyway.”


“No, I just like him because he’s fast, and in the event I need to get to where the enemy is quickly, I really would like to transfer to him.”


“But sahib, there isn’t an enemy from here to the sea! I think you will be fine with your primary mount for the next few….”


A cavalier came riding up at a fearful gallop. The poor camel was exhausted and bowed forward to dismount it’s rider before the rider even gave the command. The rider wore chain mail armor covered in a flowing yellow cape, and carried a beautiful jeweled scimitar marking him as a Mamluk bodyguard. The most distinctive feature of the man at this moment was his face. It was as white as his turban, and his eyes were glazed over with terror in spite of his best attempts to focus on his master.


“Lord Saladin! Lord Saladin! Jer-Jer-Jerusalem is upon us!”


“What?! What djinn has possessed you?! Jerusalem is three days from here!”


“No sahib! He is upon us, less than a few hours from this spot with his whole army!”


Saladin’s face drained of color too. His army outnumbered that of King Baldwin IV of Jerusalem at least 5:1, but the vast majority of his men were off foraging, or trying to extradite the baggage train from the mud it had somehow gotten stuck in. At best, he could get only about half his force together in the next couple hours, and even then they would be tired and exhausted men against the fresh knights of the Crusaders. But he couldn’t retreat either. All those foraging parties were supposed to return to this spot over the next few days. If he retreated, they would be cut down one by one. His only option was to make his stand and hope to Allah the Merciful and Victory Giver that He may afflict the infidel king with an attack of caution. There was one thing to take care of first.


“Abu! Get that camel to the baggage train! I will not have my entire army infected by it!” I have enough djinns swarming me now…


~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~


Allah had chosen to be The Abaser instead. Such was His Will and Saladin did not question it. He was however, questioning why the heck he had not grabbed one of his faster mounts in the bedlam of preparing for the battle. True, his fastest camel had been laid up, but he had other, faster mounts than this one he was now galloping east on. He was alone, his bodyguards were dead, along with most of his army. If, however, he could make it to the nearby well, he would probably be able to rally enough of his force to manage a fighting retreat to Egypt. He just needed to get away from Baldwin’s…


Oh s---t; he thought, as his ears picked up the distinctive sound of hooves striking sand behind him. Looking over his shoulder, he could see, about 100 rods behind him, three knights. Their shields were emblazed with the cross of the Knights Templar.


The four men sped their mounts across the desert as fast as their beasts could allow. The horses of the Templar Knights were faster though, and the distance between them and their quarry decreased to 70 rods, then 50, then 40. Saladin looked behind him. I’m not going to escape them, am I?



There is no god but Allah, and Muhammad is the messenger of Allah…



He let the distance between him and the lead knight decrease to 25 rods, then suddenly wheeled around.


“Allah Akbar!”


The lead knight had clearly not expected this, and wasn’t fast enough in shifting his shield. Saladin’s scimitar connected with him right below the ribcage, tearing out a good chunk of the man’s liver as it exited.


“Allah Akbar!”



With practiced ease, he ducked under the wild swing of the second knight’s sword and sliced a long gash across the horse’s flank, cutting off the saddle straps. The knight fell to an ignoble heap on the sand.


“Allah Ak…”


The third knight, seeing what happened to his companions, decided that Saladin was way too practiced at mounted combat, and, rather than try jousting, deliberately barreled his horse at the camel. Predictably, the terrified horse at the last second reared up on his hind legs, and the knight jumped clear of Saladin’s cutting swing. The camel, not expecting a horse to suddenly behave like that right in front of it, collided with it, throwing Saladin.

Saladin landed on his left side, recovering his senses quick enough to parry the knight’s downward cut. Getting to his feet, Saladin warded off the next two thrusts, then went on the offensive. He may have been 40 years old, but Saladin was an accomplished swordsman and unencumbered by heavy armor, which more than made up for his opponent’s relative youthfulness. Back and forth they went, until finally a particularly sharp hit caused the Templar to lose his balance, sending him on his back. Saladin stood triumphant.


“Allah Akbar, infidel d…”


But before he could finish the word “dog,” he was stopped by some unpleasantness. Looking down at his chest, he was quite surprised to see the bloodied tip of a sword protruding out of it.


What the f----. It would be his last conscious thought before he collapsed to the desert sand for the last time.


The second knight, whom Saladin had dismounted, removed his helmet, revealing a sandy haired, ruddy faced 25 year-old. He offered a hand to his comrade, but was swatted away.


“G—damnit Robert! The knight on the ground said, as he removed his helmet to reveal a slightly older, maybe 27, face with brown hair and hazel eyes. “Do you have any idea how f—ing stupid you are?!”


“That’s the thanks I get for saving your life Michel?! And what are you doing using that language for?! We’re supposed to be monks here!”


“Bulls—t! We could have been kings! Or at least dukes! Do you have any idea how much the ransom for him would have been?! We could have taken our share, gone back to France, and bought an honest-to-G-d duchy!”


“Alright, fine! Next time we run into the supreme leader of all Mohammedists, I’ll let him kill you, and keep the ransom for myself!”


By this time, Robert had gone over to check his horse, which was in great pain. He ended it. Michel had checked his horse, and the camel too. Both of them had also been lamed and was similarly forced to take care of it. The two of them then checked on the first knight.


“Well, Gaston’s definitely dead.”


“Now you’re really making me feel bad that I killed Saladin, we owed him our thanks for getting rid of that a—hole.”


“Now who’s not speaking like a monk?!”


“Shut up!”


The two of them looked at each other, and burst out laughing at how ridiculous this all was.


“At least we can use his horse to get back.”


“One horse for the two of us?”


“Why not? It’s Templar tradition.”


“Uggh… I can’t believe this, one minute ago, I was on the verge of becoming one of the wealthiest men in Christendom, and now I’m sharing a horse with your smelly…”


“Correction, you were on your way to becoming the wealthiest corpse in Christendom.”


The two of them mounted the late and unlamented Gaston’s horse, and looked down at the corpse of their dreams.


“A king’s ransom, I can’t believe it, a king’s ransom…”


The two of them rode west, towards the setting sun, as the last drops of blood Saladin would ever shed poured out on the eternally thirsty desert sands…
 

Md139115

Banned
Do you have any idea how much I'd like to see that TL?

Well here’s the thing. This was just a POD. The actual TL was going to take place 300 years later with Leonardo da Vinci traveling to Jerusalem, officially to work on a rebuild of the Church of the Holy Sepulchre, but in reality to see if a canal could be built between the Mediterranean and the Red Sea.

The writing was kind of sloppy, the physics would have been impossible, and I would have had to set the mother of all butterfly nets. Despite all that, I might have gotten something out of it if I didn’t get wrapped up in two other TLs.
 
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