This wouldn't work. New Amsterdam was ruled by the WIC, but Asia would fall into the domain of the VOC, which was unrelated. And the VOC would not bother with the fur trade since the spice trade was far more lucrative than the fur trade could ever be.
Sakhalin Island is colonized by Westerners and becomes a country
- Thread starter Hellespont
- Start date
Or they could deport tens of thousands of Poles to the island after one of the revolts as punishment. These Poles eke out an existence from fishing and trade before aligning with Japan in a struggle between the two nations, resulting in a Japanese-aligned or owned Polish Sakhalin. If Japan annexes it, then it gets released after decolonization (either voluntary or forced) occurs, resulting in a bizarre state on the opposite end of the world with a Polish majority.
But then this is all pretty unlikely. Any Polish deportation would probably involve mass starvation and the majority of the people moving back to Poland at the first opportunity.
Actualy, saying the spice trade would be more profitable is a bit of a simplification from my part. The VOC traded in everything they could get their hands on, as long as it was profitable all over Asia. The fact alone that they did not bother with Sakhalin OTL probably shows that it would simply not be worth their time. Besides that, they didn't realy care for settler colonies. If the fur trade wuld be worth it, they would probably pay locals to get the furs for them and than sell them elsewhere, probably in Asia. Not sure if the fur would be worth enough to bring to Europe and take the place of more precious cargo.
All in all the VOC didn't bother colonising Sakhalin OTL and I see no reason for them to change it.
In 1854 the island belonged to Japan so the treaty would be needed, not just an one-sided declaration. In 1855 it was split between Russia and Japan (Treaty of Shimoda).
Not necessarily. Green Ukraine was potentially a thing even in our history.
Green Ukraine - Wikipedia
Why not a Polish (or Ukrainian) Sakhalin republic?
You just provided a perfect explanation to why this scenario would not happen. 😂
Why would the Russian authorities even contemplate creation of the obvious pain in their Pacific posteriors?
Just as a side note to the implausible scenario: “moving back” without permission from the authorities was not a possibility in the imperial Russia, except for the individual escapees doing this illegally. A traveler (any traveler) needed a paperwork from the authorities of the pint of departure and, due to the “linguistic issues” the Poles had been easily recognizable.
I gave a scenario where an ethnically Western Sakhalin existed in a context involving Russia. Did this have any purpose besides going “Hah hah, this is dumb!”?
Yeah, which is why I said “at the first opportunity.” Because that opportunity wouldn’t be immediately available. And because that opportunity wouldn’t be immediately available, the Poles would have to wait until the opportunity arrived. Am I making myself crystal clear here?
Piggybacking off of Green Ukraine, maybe we have Sakhalin also be massively colonized by the Ukrainians as well and join green Ukraine or form their own nation entirely. Instead of their daft plan to somehow unite with the homeland they immediately start looking for some international backer. The Japanese are the most likely to accept being next door and sharing half the island already. But they’re also the least likely to be accepted because racism is a thing. I’m not sure who else would be likely to step in. A more imperialist U.S.?
Yes, the purpose is to tell that scenario is unrealistic: creating a predominantly Polish enclave after the uprising on a territory over which Russian government has a very tenuous control would be, to use your word, “dumb”.
Of course, there would be a single uprising relevant, one of 1860 (in 1830 Sakhalin was not Russian), and while after it tens of thousands Poles had been sent into various parts of the Russian Empire (only 18,762 to Siberia), sending them all the way to Sakhalin in the tens of thousands seems close to the technical impossibility: (a) while treaty with Japan regarding a joint ownership was concluded in 1855, the talks about practical implementation had been going on all the way to 1867 and the penal colony was established only in 1875, (b) there were no cargo carrying capacities capable of handling the task: Siberian flotilla consisted of 9 small ships and there was no significant merchant fleet, (c) sending mass numbers of people into an exile with no established administration and no means of the adequate supplying them with a food and other necessities was not acceptable in the Russian empire circa 1860s.
You posted your scenario, which is your right. But the fact that you posted it does not exempt you from checking its plausibility so no need to get edgy.
Last edited:
The problem with the plans for a massive colonization is sustainability. Neither Russians/Soviets nor Japanese could increase population above 500,000 even with the massive food imports. The existing mineral resources do not warrant multi-million numbers and an independent state can’t expect to be subsidized by the foreign governments forever. Tan idea of the Japanese being the world’s greatest sucker is excessively optimistic.
Oh in my mind the Japanese accept for buffer reasons, not profit reason. Better to subsidize a weak country than have the Soviets on your door step. Even better for them if Green Ukraine is part of the deal. That area at least has some more profit and sustainability. It also gives them another foothold on the mainland and in to Manchuria proper assuming the Japanese stay on the same course they did OTL. It’s not a perfect idea but it’s the best I could come up with for someone willing to get involved.
As for how you support a population there when it’s already pretty maxed out, I don’t know how. Maybe long term it becomes ethnically Ukrainian as Green Urkrainians migrate to the island after claiming it in regardless of ethnicity when they declared independence. That’s really the best I can come up with short of population transfers for no logical reason.
The Imperial Japan seemingly did not have any problems with the Soviet neighborhood because almost all the way to its declaration of a war in 1945 the Soviets had been an important trade partner supplying Japan with the raw materials. After Japan withdrew its troops from the Northern Sakhalin in 1925 it was granted oil and coal concessions on the Soviet part of the island and and in addition the right to exploit “mineral, timber and other natural resources in all parts of the territory of the U. S. S. R.” in an addition to the fishing rights along the Pacific coast. Japan actively supported the So during the conflict on the Chinese Eastern Railway in 1929 by refusing to transport Chinese troops on Manchurian railroads and declining to take part in representations by other powers. In 1935 the SU sold its interest in the South Manchurian Railway to Japan, etc. After the clashes of 1938 and 39 (which Molotov declared to be dictated “not in Tokyo but somewhere in Europe” a non-aggression pact was signed in 1941. In 1944 a new convention was signed: In return for transferring to Russia all her rights and equipment in north Sakhalin, Japan received a payment of five million rubles, a contract under which Russia is obligated to supply Japan with 50,000 metric tons of oil a year for five consecutive years “after cessation of the present war,” and was permitted to remove her stored stocks tax free. Previous to the present treaty, Japanese concessions were due to run until 1970.
OTOH, if in the early 1920s Japan, after it was forced by international pressure (from the US at the Washington Conference on the Limitation of Armaments) to abandon an agreement regarding a buffer Far East Republic, Japan sticks to supporting some “buffer state” on North Sakhalin, it may see not only the problems with its future trade relations with the SU but also a continued pressure from the US and probably Britain as well.
Which is extremely unlikely (but interesting idea): in the area in question the Ukrainians amounted to 18% of a population of the Green Klyn. So why would the Japanese or the Soviets bother with creating a separate state for them on Sakhalin?
There was a Far East Republic (a presumably non-communist buffer state) created in the region per Soviet-Japanese agreement. Cutting few small Ukrainian enclaves out of it would not suit any of the sides. Anyway, why would the Ukrainians be more “Western” than the Russians?
That’s the main problem with the OP: required logic, logistics and economy is hard (if not impossible) to come with.