Safe On Third

Rajiv Gandhi greets the crowd at his final election rally. At left is his assassin, Dhanu, whose dress hid an RDX pack stuffed with thousands of ball bearings. Detonation occurred less than 10 minutes after this photo was taken, resulting in 14 dead and dozens injured.
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10:38 PM (D-0:08)
Sriperumbudur, Tamil Nadu, 21 May 1991

“In the event you win a plurality of both seats and votes but fall short, will you consider a coalition with either Mr Singh or Mr Advani?” “I suggest you ask them. Congress has always formed majority governments and I have confidence we will do so again. There have been two coalitions, in 1977 and 30 months ago, both based not on common principle but a common lust for power at the Centre. As a result, they disintegrate fairly quickly, as you have seen. If I am asked to form a government it will be drawn solely from the ranks of the Congress, whether it is a minority or majority.” “What do you consider to be the defining issue of this election?” “The defining question is a simple one, that of leadership. This government has followed, not led, on every issue that matters nationally, be it religious tolerance, transparency, the economy or foreign affairs.” “Speaking of foreign affairs, while this is your specialty, yesterday the Prime Minister accused you of damaging relations with the United States back in January by attacking him on allowing coalition aircraft to use our airbases for refuelling. How do you respond to that?” [1] “I believe that there should have been consultation with the opposition leaders, I do not disagree with the action taken. Were I in his place I would have also done the same had President Bush requested me to do so.” “What about-““We’re at our destination- follow me. It will be a while; this isn’t a hit-and-run affair, but it will be our last stop of the day.” With that Mark Tully exited the unmarked Humvee and set up backstage, nodding to those on the security detail he knew well.

We need to reach the voters. Yesterday was just-““Prime Minister, I must strongly object. It is pitch-black here and no one can see anything. Wait till the speech is over.” “Fine, if you say so.” The Colonel rolled his eyes and remembered his pre-election briefing: 250% increase in threats, 73% probability of an attempt. I make that call, no one else.

A few dozen metres away, Dhanu stared through the pitch black night. She could barely make out that man, the blood-stained oppressor of her people, at the podium, with some woman besides him. While the aim was hardly perfect, the crowd was slowly squeezing her away. Reaching under her dress, the click of the detonator was inaudible due to the din of the crowd and background noise. Yet nothing happened. Dhanu continued fumbling with the triggers, trying to figure out what had gone wrong...

“When we form the next government and I become Prime Minister again, I need Maragatham Chandrasekhar as a member of our caucus. She will fight for your interests tirelessly in Parliament as she has done in this province for the past six years. What has the government accomplished in the past eighteen months? Nothing except crudely, cynically play off different religions against each other for short-term political gain. They are leading from despair and doubt. Let us look to the future rather than to the communalist past, as the BJP would have it, or subordinated to the whims of one man who has made himself infamous for character assassination, utter hypocrisy and lack of any discernible principle. You must elect a Congress majority government, because regardless of who wins the most seats they will form a fundamentalist-socialist coalition, one that will not last more than 2 years, but such is the price of putting personal ambition above principle. We saw it 2 years ago and it will happen again if given the opportunity. Thank you and remember to vote Congress on Thursday!”
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“Sir, we got you some food, that’s why the car was moved.” “Next time let me know, but the food is much appreciated- haven’t eaten since this morning.” “No holds barred, I’m guessing? Looks like a busy schedule tomorrow.” “Tomorrow is one major rally; we resume a regular schedule on the weekend before settling down Saturday night to await the final results. Regardless who comes in second I will have to face that bastard at PMQs, or the communalist demagogue who wears a moderate mask while his members ape Golwakar. [2] Truly distasteful in my opinion, but that’s the price of this job. Needless to say, you never heard that and I didn’t hear you laughing.” “Of course not, but here we are. Thanks for the ride. I’ll be there tomorrow.”

NF headquarters, Delhi, 23 May

VP Singh sat in his office with trusted aides listening to the reports on AIR before meeting the press outside. Of everyone in this election he was perhaps poised to lose the most. Just 4 years previously he had been the #2 man in the government, and prime minister 6 months previously. Now his National Front was poised to place third, and his old friend-turned-archenemy, Rajiv Gandhi, was poised to return to the Prime Minister’s Office after barely 18 months’ exile. We screwed up again just as in 1977 Singh thought to himself. To Singh, perhaps most gallingly, they had fumbled their government for the same reasons as a decade previously. If anything, his countrymen were again buying the line that only Congress was a coherent political party. Yet it hadn’t been so coherent when Rajiv had been blasting his own party’s left wing at the occasion of the Mahatma’s birthday in ’87, or turning back on his economic promises in a last ditch attempt to halt the impending verdict in the 1989 budget. So sensitive to press criticism Singh thought. Yet if he had learned anything, it was not to underestimate Rajiv. Canny bastard, and now he’ll sink or swim in this bloody morass. Outside the questions were harsh and unrelenting: “Mr Singh, if no party wins a majority, will you attempt to reconstitute a coalition with Mr Advani and the regional parties as was the case in 1989?” “Would you be willing to forgo the premiership as a precondition?” Can you clarify your position on the mosque and castes?” All the foreign press are in the tank for Rajiv, as is the Times. It’s the small fry that are supposed to have pretence of objectivity, the twats. Don’t lose your composure, or there goes a news cycle. “To the first question: obviously the party that wins the most seats gets the first shot at forming a government. I will not answer hypothetical questions about who holds which office or coalitions until after the results are in. With regard to the mosque, the answer is in the manifesto, and the same applies to the castes. Thank you, that’s all for today.”


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“India’s general election comes to an end today, with former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi’s Congress party projected to form the next government. This election has been marked by violence and a high voter turnout, as Indians go to the polls for the third time in 7 years. Our correspondent Mark Kelly has the story.” “This is Mark Tully here in Delhi outside Congress Party headquarters. The polls will be closing in about 30 minutes and very shortly we will be able to reveal our exit poll data. Here we are seeing a great deal of confidence among Congress supporters that Mr Gandhi will become Prime Minister for the second time at the head of a majority government, though the seat projections range anywhere from 270 to 295 seats depending on the pollster, with 273 needed for a majority.” “Mark, can you tell our listeners what the main issues are in this campaign?” “National unity and the economy are the policy issues being debated, but the ballot question that all three leaders have been framing is that of leadership, something that benefits Messrs Gandhi and Singh as former prime ministers more than Mr Advani, whose BJP party is a close race to form the official opposition with Mr Singh.”

BBC exit polling (May 24-25, 2.3% MOE)
What is the most important national issue?
National unity: 52%
Economy: 30%
Terrorism: 15%
Foreign policy: 3%

Prime Ministerial preference?
Gandhi: 57%
Advani 30%
Singh: 11%

[3]
“It is now 8 PM here in Delhi as the polls close. Our first results will start trickling within the next 20 minutes, so back to you Richard.” “That’s the BBC’s Mark Tully for us in Delhi reporting on the Indian general election, where the polls are now closed and the results are to be expected shortly. On to other news, the Prime Minister told the Commons today that Britain is on track to continue Maastricht negotiations despite Mr Kinnock’s assertion to the contrary...”
“Our first results are now trickling in; traditionally the party leaders’ seats are projected first. Messrs Gandhi, Advani and Singh are all poised to retain their constituencies by wide margins, despite a concerted effort by the BJP and Congress to defeat Mr Singh in his Fatephur constituency. First batch of seats incoming: 14 Congress, 8 BJP, 3 NF... Congress has now crossed the threshold of 273 seats needed to form a majority government. Repeat, BBC is now projecting a Congress majority government.” “Mark, what are your sources telling you about the whereabouts of the party leaders?” “I just spoke to one of Mr Gandhi’s press aides, who say that he will be here in about 20 minutes or so to address his supporters and deliver a victory speech. Messrs Singh and Advani are expected to concede shortly afterwards, and the BJP will be forming the official opposition, making Mr Advani the Leader of the Opposition.” “What happens tomorrow, walk us through the process. This process is somewhat longer than our own.” “Well yes Richard it is. Tomorrow Mr Gandhi will be summoned to the presidential palace and commissioned to form a government, making him Prime Minister-designate. Over the next 7 to 10 days- usually one week in the case of a majority government- he will be forming his Cabinet while the outgoing one prepares to leave office. On either the second or fourth of June his Cabinet will be sworn in at the presidential palace, no speeches, and he becomes Prime Minister. Most of the Cabinet are expected to retain their Shadow Cabinet portfolios in government, and we have just confirmed that Mr Rao will formally obtain the title of Deputy Prime Minister, the first since 1968. Sorry Mark, we have to cut you off. Mr Gandhi is about to speak.”

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“To all those who voted over this past week, regardless of how you voted, I want to once again be the Prime Minister of the entire nation. I might be the MP for Amethi but my real constituency is the country. The road ahead of us will not be easy or there shortcuts. I do not do this because it is easy, but because it is hard. These times require a single pair of hands on the wheel, and I am grateful that they will be mine... Thank you, I’ll now be taking questions. “How does it feel to be victorious again?” “Humbling, yet thrilling simultaneously.” “Can you give us any hints as to who will be in the Cabinet?” “The list of Shadow Cabinet members will give you plenty of hints, though by no means all.” “What do you see as your biggest challenge?” “Ironically in a secular nation, the issues that concern most citizens, Ayodhya and Mandal- are both religious. [4] Both of those will be my top priorities. Thank you, that is all.”


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"While forming the next government was never seriously in doubt, it was not until around 6 AM on 27 May when we finally emerged with an overall majority of 47. Even though I had secured enough votes from regional parties to form a stable minority administration if the need arose, we had explicitly requested a majority government and received one. I knew that if I wanted to do better in 1995 or 1996 we would have to perform to the very highest standards."

Outgoing Prime Minister Chandra Sekhar and Prime Minister-designate Rajiv Gandhi scrum outside the Palace. The transfer of power has been set for June 4.

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[1] The Sekhar government had authorized coalition aircraft to use Indian airbases as refuelling stops in January IOTL and got slammed by the opposition parties for doing so.
[2] R.S. Golwakar, the RSS founder.
[3] Based on a "pressing national issues" poll conducted in March.
[4] Ayodhya, scheduled castes.
 
This is a great POD for India. I'm really looking forward to this, RogueBeaver. What will happen to Rao and Singh? Will India continue to be interventionist? Keep up the great work!
 
Rashtrapati Bhavan (Presidential Palace)
8:30 AM
27 May
“You are cleared for entry sir.” With that the barricade went down and the Colonel eased the white Rolls through Gate 30 towards the side doors to avoid the media circus at the front gate. It was 30 minutes earlier than planned, but not his place to complain. “No longer than 45 minutes. Park in the usual spot, stretch your legs a bit and keep cool.” “Yes PM.” Gandhi smiled to himself as he walked through the side entrance, taking a salute from the young sentry at the door. Partners in protocol-breaking- Margaret would be amused considering the hell she took for that sort of thing. Uponarriving at the top of the stairs, still another corridor before being ushered into the President’s office.


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“I trust the jackals weren’t baying too loudly, were they?” whispered Venkataraman.
Chuckling, Rajiv replied: “No, they weren’t even there, but they will be in a few minutes.”
“That’s why I asked you early, but the side gate is a permanent move. It’s easier to guard from a security perspective. Now, the (cough, cough) purpose of your visit. Can you form a government within the next seven days and win the House’s confidence?

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“Yes Mr President, I am ready, willing and able to form the next government of India.”
“Good. You know the drill” the old man growled, handing Rajiv the formal letter of commission, which he then pocketed.
“I need one favour Mr President. I am recommending that Mr Rao be appointed to the Rajya Sabha once the Cabinet is sworn in.” “Your recommendation will be followed next week. Now, I understand you have something for me.” “Strictly for pleasure of course, don’t expense it.” (Chuckles) Good, my favourites. Now, Rajiv, before you go, a word of advice: announce the entire Cabinet at once. I don’t like those jackals calling every employee in the place for speculation. More than dislike: I despise it. “Yes Mr President.” What a humourless twit.

“That was quick PM.” “It isn’t rocket science you know, just a simple question and a simple answer. In the popular imagination this is probably some sort of elaborate ritual, which it isn’t- even in Britain. Now, take me home. Tomorrow morning, take me to the North Block at 10. I have phone calls to return and a Cabinet to make.” “Your wish is my command.”

Opposition Leader’s suite, North Block, 9:55 AM, May 28 (G-8)
Narashima Rao smiled wistfully at the clear blue sky outside. While the election victory had been a cause for euphoria, it was now time to get down to business- Cabinet-making business. Soon this suite will have a new occupant, and we get the new digs in South with the expanded PMO. He had some names in mind- but his thoughts were interrupted as the door clicked open. Surprisingly, it wasn’t Rajiv but another guard. “Mr Rao, Mr Gandhi has just arrived. He’ll be here shortly.” “Thank you Captain, dismissed.” Boy’s barely old enough to shave by the looks of him but already an O-3? Before he could finish the thought the door clicked again.
“No catnip, only the full-course meal” hissed Gandhi upon entering.

“What do you mean?”

“He wants the whole Cabinet announced at once. Which means they’ll be disappointed, but I don’t want any more of those “FEUD” banner headlines [1] in the tabloids, so let’s get down to business.”
“Here’s the preliminary list we discussed yesterday. Most of it is just swapping Shadow Cabinet into Cabinet, but what do you think of Manmohan Singh for Finance? Obviously the best-qualified with an apolitical reputation, but can he be persuaded?” Probably if we spin it as a patriotic thing, plus the media angle looks good from both domestic and foreign perspectives. “We absolutely can, provided we have the correct sales pitch. He’d have to go in the Rajya Sabha though; Singh’s not the type for the sort of knife fighting that we deal with. Already you’re going to need a deputy in the Lok and with the three most senior portfolios in there; External absolutely has to be in the Lok. We’re not the latter-day Salisbury ministry here. ““It would be if you took External.” (Snort) “Not formally anyways. That can wait for later. I’m thinking of putting Chidhabaram in either Defence or International Trade. Probably Defence given his background, because he’d scare the hell out of the bureaucracy there. MOD needs a thorough reorganization, plus some new equipment before we go back into the jungle. Not before we get some guarantees from our partners though. The rest of the list is fine. Thursday I’m meeting with him, then some consideration of ambassadorial reshuffling. Once we enact the “first 100 days” section of the manifesto I’m jetting off to North America, no UK visit before the Conference.” [2]

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May 30 (G-6)
1 S. Road [3]
7:45 AM

“It is not just I or the Congress that needs you. The nation needs you. You would be given full authority over implementation, with the other members of the economic team following your lead. I will have someone in the Lok Sabha as your deputy there, and a Rajya appointment can easily be arranged.”
Manmohan Singh sipped the tea and thought about the offer. Certainly he had good reason to leave the Planning Commission 4 years prior, quietly appalled at what one journalist aptly called “the politics of policy.” The 1989 budget in particular had disgusted him, but the election manifesto had made clear that this time would be different. Electoral politics were something he avoided like the plague. But he knew that the economy, particularly balance of payments and foreign exchange, were a basket case. There was no one else who could put a nonpartisan face on this endeavour, and Gandhi had promised to “be your political flak jacket if it comes to that.”

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“I am willing to accept this role, but you must promise me that there will be no politics here. No polls or hinting that maybe we should slow down as happened last time. We are going to pursue this to the end just as Mrs Thatcher did, and if necessary go through the same turbulence and poll numbers. That is my final condition, and a non-negotiable one.”
“I give you my word that there will be no politics. We need to bring a 20th century country into the 21st, and I want you as my COO.”
“Excellent. Let me know when the economic briefing is so I can take a look at the Secretariat documents. No recommendations without seeing the raw numbers first.” “That will be tomorrow, when the first transition meeting takes place. I also have to meet Chandra [4] one-on-one, as you know that’s for me only. A car will pick you up tomorrow morning; I’ll meet you outside the PMO 10 minutes early.”

31 May (G-5)
11:03 AM
OCS, South Block

The Cabinet Secretary poured himself a sherry: it was boiling hot and he needed a cold drink to drown the scorching heat outside. Turning to face his visitor, Naresh Chandra continued pouring as he continued the briefing.
“Mr Gandhi, you have just been informed of the stark economic realities facing the nation. I will not belabour the point, for my primary goal in this meeting is to bring you up to speed on the diplomatic and military situation that will be yours to manage five days hence. We both know that the Soviet Union has 18 months to run at most, most likely much less. The government has already begun talks with President Yeltsin and it is to him that your communications must be addressed, at least informally. Gorbachev is increasingly irrelevant and there is no point in trying to prop up a political corpse. There is currently a top-secret diplomatic initiative going on, whereby talks are ongoing for the exchange of embassies with Israel. Presidents Bush and Gorbachev, as well as Prime Minister Major are aware of this initiative and have given it their private support. Of course, it is entirely within your prerogative to cancel the talks if you so desire. This is something I need your authorization for before the diplomats can continue their work.”
Gandhi did not hesitate: he was the one who had authorized deeply covert intelligence cooperation between the two countries in his first term but had never gotten around to recognition- it had always been in the cards, if deeply buried.
“You are authorized to continue those talks, and I hope they come to fruition very shortly.”

“Excellent. Now, I understand you want to appoint Messrs Singh and Rao to the Rajya Sabha, on the condition that they have a minister of state in the Lok Sabha. That is constitutionally acceptable, but there is one caveat: constitutionally the budget must first be passed in the Lok Sabha, though it may be tabled in the Rajya Sabha. Other than that, I have no objections to these appointments. On the subject of...”


2 June (G-2)
12:44 PM
1 S Road

“When you said I’d get a full ministry this time I thought it would be Trade or C&I, never Defence. Where did that come from?” “It came from my desire to have a serious taskmaster in that hornet’s nest P.”
Gandhi sipped his beer contentedly: while P had been the most logical choice for International Trade, he wanted an organizational man who would reorganize MOD in anticipation of what was to come: a long-term project requiring a different skill set than the one currently dominating the Armed Forces.
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“I’ll take this up with honour and enthusiasm Rajiv, but we won’t be ready for that project quite yet.”
“I know that. It wouldn’t be until after the US presidential election in any case, even if there wasn’t work to be done at MOD. Can’t have the rug pulled from under us in mid-game can we?”
“No, especially given the shopping list you gave me. Let’s get on with it.”

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4 June (G-Day)
11:57 AM
Rhastrapati Bhavan
President Venkataraman gazed out at Central Hall, where 27 ministers led by the Prime Minister-designate were ready to take their oaths of office. Though still suffering from a bad cold he had resolved to conduct the ceremony, the last before his presidency expired 13 months hence.

“Are you ready to take the oath Mr Gandhi?” “Yes Mr President.”

I, Rajiv Gandhi, do solemnly affirm that I will faithfully execute the office of Prime Minister and will to the best of my ability preserve, protect and defend the Constitution and the law, and that I will devote myself to the service and well-being of the people of the Republic of India.” [5]

“Congratulations Mr Prime Minister. Mr Rao, if you would step forward please...”

The Cabinet Troika

Narashima Rao
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Portfolios
Deputy Prime Minister
Home Minister
Deputy Leader of the Parliamentary Party

MP: 1972-91
MRS: 1991-
Previous posts: External Affairs (1980-4, 1988-9), Defence (1984-5), Home (1986)

P. Chidambaram

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Portfolios
Minister of Defence
MP since: 1984

Manmohan Singh
Minister of Finance
MRS since: 1991

[1] In 1986-7 a flurry of media reports surfaced that Gandhi was deliberately keeping Zail Singh in the dark about government policy. For some reason Singh went public and blasted the lack of transparency in a widely distributed op-ed. There were rumours that he would try and dismiss Rajiv, but there was no constitutional mechanism available and at most it was a violation of the spirit, not the letter of the law.
[2] Harare CHOGM.
[3] 1 Safjargadung Road is his private residence, not an official government residence.
[4] The Cabinet Secretary.
[5] Indira Gandhi is known to have taken the oath in the secular manner, and her son was just as secular.
 
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Nice update. What with their election mandate and that troika backed by Gandhi, this government is poised to change India more than it ever has changed in its history. I'm looking forward to what they'll do. Keep up the great work!

Cheers,
Ganesha
 
Nice update. What with their election mandate and that troika backed by Gandhi, this government is poised to change India more than it ever has changed in its history. I'm looking forward to what they'll do. Keep up the great work!

Cheers,
Ganesha

I suspect though that the proposed changes will face significant resistance in some areas though.
 
I suspect though that the proposed changes will face significant resistance in some areas though.

I lost the link to the '91 Congress manifesto, but the major change is what I call agenda discipline. In his first term things were done haphazardly and policy after 1987 was increasingly subjected to politics- Shah Bano and Bofors threw his government onto the political defensive from which it never recovered until the '89 election. Everything in the manifesto is on a schedule: 100 days, 6 months, a year, etc. Rather checklist-y, but that's how pilots operate.

There was significant resistance. Many left-wing MPs were expelled from caucus in the first term for opposing the agenda or the small coterie of technocrats "Rajiv's computer boys" concentrated in the PMO: all of them were stereotypical toffs and either British or American-educated- just like Rajiv himself. The press rode the agenda incredibly hard- that is, the domestic press. Foreign media always liked his agenda (One memorable WSJ headline: Rajiv Reagan) and Rajiv personally, ditto for the foreign leaders he dealt with. There is more than just economic policy, but also major social reforms on the agenda. With militant Hindu chauvinists as the Official Opposition, there's lots of opportunity for reform and none for civil debate on the subject. On economic policy the BJP and Congress are in near-total agreement, and in such a severe crisis the media will be more sympathetic than they were in the '80s. Social policy will be the subject of more debate than economic policy.
 
Nice update. What with their election mandate and that troika backed by Gandhi, this government is poised to change India more than it ever has changed in its history. I'm looking forward to what they'll do. Keep up the great work!

Cheers,
Ganesha

Here are the changes they have in mind for this Parliament. As I said, very much a checklist and quite heavy on both economic and social reform. There is one major promise that isn't contained in the manifesto, so stay tuned.

FYI: a crore is 10000000 rupees, or about $140000 USD in 1991. I'll try and update tomorrow.
 
Today was the E committee’s 1st meeting & the situation is even worse than I thought. The BOP crisis alone requires drastic measures, including another devaluation of the rupee. What has become clear is that we will have to break our promises of a stable tax regime: close all the loopholes, substantial reductions in corporate tax and graduated but fairly severe spending cuts. According to the Dr, said prescription will ensure revenue neutrality by the end of this Parliament. So at the next election we will have fiscal health restored & a surplus to distribute between our needs & paying down the debt. Makes sense to me, especially if we can find savings in MOD that will allow us to retool. European & US equipment is the way to go for replacing the -21 fleet while complementing them with -29s to keep our soon-to-be- Russian friends happy. The budget is being delivered tomorrow while PVNR is prepping the reservations bill for submission later in the week- we expect that to be passed in the next 10 days or so. I am also considering reserving a media slot for a national radio address on why we must discard this manifesto commitment, but the press team doesn’t want that finalized until we get some public feedback & Finance has prepped some talking points for me. In any case, the overall effect is revenue neutral for the moment. Placed some calls this afternoon: let GB & BM know that I will be headed their way in the fall & also that we want to start FTA negotiations. Both seem eager to take that up but not until we meet. On non-budgetary matters I have signed an OIC authorizing PC to create an RDF with existing troops. Next week is when we pass the worship bill + something closer to my heart.

Gandhi Journals, 24 June 1991




In order to avoid violating the Congress manifesto commitment to a stable direct tax regime, Finance Minister Manmohan Singh announced a plan whereby taxes would be lowered but loopholes would be closed, ensuring net revenue neutrality. Accompanied by severe reductions in spending and the IMF bailout negotiated in the dying days of the National Front government, India was able to avert a balance of payments crisis that summer. It was when the budget was passed on June 29 that Gandhi famously quipped “we’re not idling, we’re applying full reverse and autobrakes” to Manmohan Singh. The following week the Open Skies Act was passed, repealing the Air Corporations Act of 1953. Air India and Indian Airlines, both among the few profitable nationalized industries, were to be fully privatized by October 31, 1992. Monopolies in the aviation industry came to a close, while Gandhi, a former Indian Airlines pilot himself, said “may the best entrepreneurs win, but the real winners are as always, the customers.” It was the Freedom of Worship Bill that aroused the most controversy in Parliament due to the BJP’s intransigence on the Ajodhya question. Deputy Prime Minister Narashima Rao would describe the atmosphere as “the worst I’ve seen since the Emergency’s imposition 16 years ago” while a quick cloture vote over fierce BJP opposition only inflamed fundamentalist sentiment. Privately, Gandhi requested that Defence Minister P. Chidambaram prepare for the use of RDF troops if necessary to quell demonstrations in the state. Paraphrasing Cato, the prime minister wrote “extreme measures in the defence of religious liberty are no vice, indeed they are a virtue.” Airline privatization turned out to be an extremely popular and profitable venture with the public, leading Gandhi and Singh to hope that similar enthusiasm could be garnered for the other nationalized industries on the chopping block. Abroad, international investors responded favourably to the fiscal measures with a record for shares exchanged in the Mumbai exchange on July 7. The IMF issued a statement saying that “with the New Economic Policy, India is well on the way to ensuring fiscal solvency and long-term economic stability.”

[Blue Tide: India’s Neoliberal Revolution at 20]

Finance Minister Manmohan Singh delivers the 1991 Budget Speech, 29 June.

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George,

In pursuance to your last letter, here’s my advice on what you can, and in my opinion, should do to fix the political dilemma. First, there must be a coherent domestic agenda. Outline some broad initiatives, such as balancing the budget by the end of your second term without raising taxes. Another idea could be a new immigration system rather than patching the Swiss cheese known as the ’65 INA. As you know, I am moving ahead on these items myself plus setting the corporate rates at 20% for now, 15% once the budget is balanced. We’ll discuss the FTA and procurement issues when we meet, but rest assured that what we want will not be used in a manner that would give the U.S. cause for concern. Policies aside, start running before the Democrats get in gear. Define them early on & blast them out of the bunkers where they are hiding from the public. Start fundraising, campaigning etc. In my experience it is never too early to go out and make your case to the public, especially when you have the luxury of not even having a defined opponent. It makes it easier to paint them as generic wimpy tax-and-spenders IMO. The biggest mistake would be to wait till next year for the campaign kickoff. With regards to Pakistan, I appreciate your concern vis-a-vis Kashmir, but for the moment the issue is dormant. A summit with Sharif is being worked out by the respective striped-pants folks & my hope is that it will happen by year’s end. Trust-building is vital for maintenance of the current detente in this region- rest assured that I’ll get back to you on the results once he & I meet. I’m also quite curious about how Madrid will work out- especially given how many friends you’ve won on the Asian street by acting as an even-handed broker rather than Israel’s attorney.

All the best,
Rajiv

[Gandhi to Bush, 16/07/91]

Yesterday the SCDC [1] bill was enacted & sent off to the Palace for signature- we are well on our way to honouring all our manifesto commitments for the first 100 days. I’m beginning to think the schedule can be moved up a bit on the non-fiscal issues given our unexpected success. This morning I met with Mayawati to see if she’s interesting in moving to the Centre & setting up shop with us- a senior portfolio such as health or MOS responsible for the SCDC. In short, “hell no” was her answer, we’re far too “right-wing” for her to even consider it. However I did manage to arrange a nonaggression pact with her in UP: certain constituencies will be uncontested by our respective parties in state assembly elections. Later it was a caucus meeting where I told everyone to meet their constituents before going on vacation- need to be prepared for the fall session. A good workout at public meetings & local media should help bolster our image before Parliament resumes. Next month I’m scheduled to receive Gorbachev here for what will likely be his final tour abroad in office- time to say goodbye. This evening will be slotted for long talks with Bob & Brian [2] on coordination for Harare in October, VIP given our definition of Commonwealth membership criteria. Sure to be a battle about human rights in the mix, & it’s our job to bridge the North-South divide as usual.

[Gandhi Diaries, 22/07/91]

Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi listens to a constituent's question at his monthly surgery in Amethi, July 26.

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July was a key month in the political world, for the splintered National Front finally dissolved itself less than 3 short years after its founding. Its scattered MPs either crossed the floor to the Congress or joined the new Left Front, an ultra-leftist coalition led by the Communist parties and devoted to undermining the INC’s left flank. Adroitly, Gandhi moved to fill the void by continuing to repeat an oversimplified, if effective mantra: the BJP were socially “medieval” while the Communists were, well, Communists. [3] Meanwhile deregulation continued at a brisk if not breakneck pace, though one of the 5 agencies scheduled for abolition was delayed due to a presidential veto which was then sent back to be signed in early August. Affirmative action for scheduled castes and women jostled for media attention alongside the economic reforms, which received almost exclusive attention in the international media. At the state level, the Congress affiliates were flush with cash dispatched by the national party, remnants of the late election campaign fund. Warning signs came on July 30, when over 100,000 Hindu fundamentalists began protesting outside the Ajodhya mosque, demanding that the mosque be torn down and replaced by a Ram temple. The British High Commissioner wrote of the stakes to Hurd and Major in London as follows: “Ajodhya is a test of the following: RDFs created specifically to deal with this sort of situation, Government’s commitment to enforcing religious liberty at all costs, RG’s ability to keep control over his family’s own electoral backyard of U.P., plus his crisis-management capabilities.”
[No Time to Go Wobbly: India 1991]


Ajodhya, U.P.
31 July
11:36 PM
Bravo Company, 2nd Battalion, 4th MID

“Colonel, we have clearance from Charlie Alpha to take all measures necessary in protecting the mosque.”
The Colonel nodded silently. It had been necessary after the state police had informed him that they could not maintain order without the use of lethal force. Now the decision was in his hands: a full mechanized infantry division was at his disposal. The whine of Hip rotors overhead plus his equipment made it nearly impossible to hear. He had ordered the APCs to ring the mosque while infantry stayed in the truck bays, ready to jump.

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Major Faisal Shan gazed out from the cockpit window of his Mi-17, scanning the horizon one last time for any breach of the perimeter before his fuel mandated a return to base. “Sir, we have movement on the ground.” Swinging the helicopter around to face the mosque, Faisal only had time to catch the bottle out of the corner of his eye. Suddenly, an orange flash erupted and the smell of smoke. “Bravo Command, this is Whiskey 1-1. Looks like a Molotov got through; she’ll go up in flames in minutes. Secure the perimeter; we have to Romeo Tango Bravo due to minimum fuel. You’re on your own for another 15-20 minutes until more airborne help arrives. Whiskey 1-1 out.”

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The Colonel shouted into the mic “Don’t stand around, get in there and do something!” No firefighting aircraft, no way to protect civilian firefighters, a frenzied mob on our hands and a mission whose failure would make 1984’s riots look like kindergarten.

To be continued...

[1] Scheduled Castes Development Corporation: a government agency that oversees affirmative action for SCs.

[2] Hawke and Mulroney.

[3] Precise wording used.
 
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