No Iraq War, the POD could be no 9/11 attack or Gore Wins in 2000. I see and massive Arab Spring uprising, which do to no fly zones Saddam cannot suppress. I see an unstable government replacing the dictator. Sunnis and Shites arguing over power and oil.I see the violence of rebellion continuing. Much like OTL Iraq. I can also see the Kurdish region declaring independence, which complicates things for Syria, Turkey and Iran. Iraqi US relations are alot less complicated.