Saddam Survives/

No Iraq War, the POD could be no 9/11 attack or Gore Wins in 2000. I see and massive Arab Spring uprising, which do to no fly zones Saddam cannot suppress. I see an unstable government replacing the dictator. Sunnis and Shites arguing over power and oil.I see the violence of rebellion continuing. Much like OTL Iraq. I can also see the Kurdish region declaring independence, which complicates things for Syria, Turkey and Iran. Iraqi US relations are alot less complicated.
 
Saddam wasn't killed in the War, he was executed by the new Iraqi government. Also Gore was one of the people who opposed Saddam, no 9-11 just means no justification no matter how erroneous it might be, but would that deter Gore. How does the "Arab Spring" or sectarian violence even happen if Saddam is still around to keep watch on everything.
 
Saddam wasn't killed in the War, he was executed by the new Iraqi government. Also Gore was one of the people who opposed Saddam, no 9-11 just means no justification no matter how erroneous it might be, but would that deter Gore. How does the "Arab Spring" or sectarian violence even happen if Saddam is still around to keep watch on everything.

I should have not named this Saddam survives. ITTL he stays in power eight years longer. He could still be hanged by the new government. I do think he is overthrown. Without airpower, it harder for him to put down the uprising that does come after the news from Tunsia.
 
Isn't this implying that the Arab Spring still happens despite no U.S involvement in the Middle East as we know it and no democratic for what their worth regimes appearing in Afghanistan and Iraq. A revolt might happen If one of Saddam's sons take power and screws up, since if Saddam was alive today he would have been in his mid 70's. I still don't see how the Arab Spring the way does If Saddam or his family is still in power, Unless lets say Amahdeinjad and Iran end up on the U.S's bad side could we see another Iran-Iraq war which could lead to an Arab Spring of some form or another.
 
Isn't this implying that the Arab Spring still happens despite no U.S involvement in the Middle East as we know it and no democratic for what their worth regimes appearing in Afghanistan and Iraq. A revolt might happen If one of Saddam's sons take power and screws up, since if Saddam was alive today he would have been in his mid 70's. I still don't see how the Arab Spring the way does If Saddam or his family is still in power, Unless lets say Amahdeinjad and Iran end up on the U.S's bad side could we see another Iran-Iraq war which could lead to an Arab Spring of some form or another.

The Arab Spring had IMHO much more to do with a generational shift in the Middle East with growing numbers of young people, many of them dissatisfied with the aging leadership and its cronies running their countries. This had been contributing to a prevalent feeling of a deleterious political stasis and giving rise to movements calling for political reforms and change, accentuated with, say, technological changes such as the internet and cell phones as means to rally people for new causes. In 2008-2012 the extended poor economic conditions, unemployment and such things as rising food prices also contributed a lot.

With these developments and conditions, important political changes in the Middle East between 2005 to 2020 are not just possible without the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, they are even likely.
 
Was I th only person who thought this thread was about what if Saddam was still living in that hole he was found in?


If the thread is about no invaison of Iraq, then you might as well ahve titled the thread "No 9/11" (before anyone creates that thread, us the search button ;)).

Saddam would never have survived the collaspe of his regime, he wasn't *that* well liked enough to escape with his life. If the regime had fallen, then the people would have demarded his blood to finalise that chapter of their history. Irrespective of others nations eventual wishes.

Which means that even the event that a Coalition force goes in, you're going to find it difficult to keep him alive. He's simply a figurehead for additional violence. While he may have gone 'Osama Bin Ladin' on the world, eventually there is so many places you can hide when your #2 on the worlds most wanted list.

Hence bringins me to my concluding statement; when, where and how do you propose a POD(s) that keep Saddam alive? Are any of those POD(s) likely to envoke much larger changes in the butterflies around the world rather than simply just keeping the Ba-ath party in power...?
 
What about the U.S. government taking seriously they have no plans for occupation, but Bush still wanting revenge on Saddam the invasion goes ahead anyway.

After the military victory the U.S. seeks a ceasefire and withdraws. That leaves Saddam in power, but the question is if he can retain control.
 
I think the Arab Spring would have less impact. The US would likely back many of the regimes. Also, there would be a lot less information, as with no Iraq war, Bradley Manning wouldn't have leaked all those documents to Wikileaks, thus less attention to corruption.
 
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