Saddam successfully develops nuclear weapons

[TribalAllegiance]

Assuming the Israelis do not destroy the Iraqi Nuclear Program, and Saddam is able to test a nuclear bomb and then further develop nuclear weapons during the Iran-Iraq war, how would that change the timeline?

Iran's reaction? Israel's reaction? Other Arab countries reactions? And finally, the reaction of the US and the USSR?

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

Israel would nuke Iraq before they could build more after the first test.

 

[Questerr]

Israel would nuke Iraq before they could build more after the first test.

They'd better flatten the whole country because if Saddam or his kids survive, you could guarantee Scuds with Sarin in them are falling on Israel.

 

[Sekhmet_D]

They'd better flatten the whole country because if Saddam or his kids survive, you could guarantee Scuds with Sarin in them are falling on Israel.

Knowing Israel, they will be sneaky about it make it look like an accident, or at least look like a strike by parties unknown. Smuggle a device or several into Iraq in pieces, then assemble and detonate them.

 

[Swiffness]

Knowing Israel, they will be sneaky about it make it look like an accident, or at least look like a strike by parties unknown. Smuggle a device or several into Iraq in pieces, then assemble and detonate them.

Yeah, no. Points for creativity but you can't do a clandestine nuclear strike lol.

 

[Sekhmet_D]

Yeah, no. Points for creativity but you can't do a clandestine nuclear strike lol.

You sneak it in overland in pieces like that, who's going to know?

 

[Nell_Lucifer]

You sneak it in overland in pieces like that, who's going to know?

Anyone with a brain could tell from where the nuclear signature came from. Israel doing literally nuclear terrorism is hardly going to be 'overlooked' even by their allies.

 

[Garrison]

It is a lot easier to think in terms of bold/sneaky military strikes before Iraq demonstrates they have the bomb, after all who knows how many they have actually assembled?

 

[Coulsdon Eagle]

Israel & Iran probably find they have coinciding interests.

 

[Gunnarnz]

Israel & Iran probably find they have coinciding interests.

Yes, this. It happened under other circumstances, so it could happen here too.

 

[TheKutKu]

A restart of the Iran-Iraq war and Israeli intervention in Iraq over their recent development of nuclear weapons (at which point they probably don't have a threatening strategic arsenal) would set an interesting precedent for when pakistan, north korea or others develop their own weapons.

 

[El_Fodedor]

Knowing Israel, they will be sneaky about it make it look like an accident, or at least look like a strike by parties unknown. Smuggle a device or several into Iraq in pieces, then assemble and detonate them.

It doesn't matter. Even if Saddam or anyone believed this bullshit, which they wouldn't, Iraq would still go down destroying Israel regardless.

If the country is already destroyed, you might as well go down in history with a bang.

 

[Dorknought]

'Atomical' Ali will announce success...

 

[TribalAllegiance]

I personally don't believe Israel would nuke Iraq just because it developed nukes, they would nuke Iraq if they felt Iraq was going to strike them, which was unlikely. Israel nuking Iraq first would not go down well in the US, Europe or the USSR (Iraq's main ally). The cutting off Western aid and the sanctions that would be levelled against Israel in response would in itself be an existential economic threat to Israel.

My opinion is that an nuclear capable Iraq would have resulted in a Middle Eastern MAD situation.

I assume Iran would double down on its own nuclear weapons program. And then you'll probably see the Saudis develop their own one in response. And maybe even Egypt developing their own program as a result. Something like a domino effect.

US sanctions would be placed on Iraq but I don't think it would be anywhere near as strong as the UN sanctions on Iraq in the 90s. Saddam can survive as long as oil is being sold, unless oil prices collapse... then Kuwait becomes interesting again.

 

[Catsmate]

Yeah, no. Points for creativity but you can't do a clandestine nuclear strike lol.

True. But you can do a covert one.

 

[Lascaris]

I personally don't believe Israel would nuke Iraq just because it developed nukes, they would nuke Iraq if they felt Iraq was going to strike them, which was unlikely. Israel nuking Iraq first would not go down well in the US, Europe or the USSR (Iraq's main ally). The cutting off Western aid and the sanctions that would be levelled against Israel in response would in itself be an existential economic threat to Israel.

My opinion is that an nuclear capable Iraq would have resulted in a Middle Eastern MAD situation.

I assume Iran would double down on its own nuclear weapons program. And then you'll probably see the Saudis develop their own one in response. And maybe even Egypt developing their own program as a result. Something like a domino effect.

US sanctions would be placed on Iraq but I don't think it would be anywhere near as strong as the UN sanctions on Iraq in the 90s. Saddam can survive as long as oil is being sold, unless oil prices collapse... then Kuwait becomes interesting again.

The Saudis were bankrolling the Iraqi development program to the tune of $5 billion. And the Pakistani program .

 

[Nelson Mikeson]

Depends when it happens. If it happens in the 1980s, than maybe Iraq nukes Iran during the war and manages to gain Khuzestan, so no Invasion of Kuwait. However, Iraq would be internationally shunned for breaking the nuclear taboo, the Ayatollah would turn to an alliance with The Great Satan, the US, to counter any future nuclear attack. Saudi Arabia and Egypt are immediately offered the technology to develop nukes and Israel would develop further nukes, so despite the fact Saddam stays in power until his death, the Middle East is a more dangerous place, the center of global nuclear proliferation, where all sides are in an uneasy peace to prevent a regional MAD.