Saddam Invades Kuwait Again in Oct, 1994

Saddam Invades Kuwait Again in Oct, 1994

Iraqi troops took up positions near Kuwait today, prompting President Clinton to dispatch Navy and Marine forces to the region and to warn that Washington would defend its Persian Gulf allies.

Pentagon officials said that Iraq had moved 10,000 troops, including forces from its elite Hammurabi division, to the area near Basra, about 30 miles from the Kuwait border, bringing the total number of Iraqi troops in the area to between 40,000 and 50,000.
http://www.nytimes.com/1994/10/08/world/us-sends-force-as-iraqi-soldiers-threaten-kuwait.html

What if Saddam tried round two for Kuwait in 1994?
 
Saddam Invades Kuwait Again in Oct, 1994


http://www.nytimes.com/1994/10/08/world/us-sends-force-as-iraqi-soldiers-threaten-kuwait.html

What if Saddam tried round two for Kuwait in 1994?

Clinton Probably would've launched something similar to Dessert Storm if Saddam were to invade again. Clinton wasn't afraid to use force, although I do question whether Clinton, especially that early in his first term could get the UN support Bush got in the 1991 war OTL.
 

shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
Question: Why? Saddam isn't that suicidal, is he?

Now that's out the way, Coalition goes in again and deposes him. UN will likely back the intervention.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
This is extremely unlikely. Saddam was not crazy, but was a highly rational and ruthless man focused exclusively on maintaining his position in Iraq. How would invading Kuwait again help him achieve his objective? He learned his lesson very well in 1991.
 
Clinton Probably would've launched something similar to Dessert Storm if Saddam were to invade again. Clinton wasn't afraid to use force, although I do question whether Clinton, especially that early in his first term could get the UN support Bush got in the 1991 war OTL.

Depends on whether he could argue that this Iraqi move was violation of ceasefire agreement and as such use of force was covered by initial resolution.

Or, more likely, with this being a defence of Kuwait it would fall under right to self defence and as such no resolution would be needed.

Of course, neither of those would guarantee same level of international contribution as was case in 1990/91. UK is likely, French maybe, Saudis probably, other Arabs maybe.

But yes, Saddam is unlikely to do that in the first palce.
 
Makes no sense for Saddam to make the same mistake only 3 years after Desert Storm. Saddam was a lot of things, but not stupid and suicidal. But if he does invade of course the UN again allows a coalition to defend Kuwait, this time also to overthrow Saddam to make sure he doesn't invade a 3rd time in 1998 or so.
 

TinyTartar

Banned
This is extremely unlikely. Saddam was not crazy, but was a highly rational and ruthless man focused exclusively on maintaining his position in Iraq. How would invading Kuwait again help him achieve his objective? He learned his lesson very well in 1991.

Saddam basically lost it during the 90s. I don't know if '94 was too early in his descent into Sunni radical insanity, but the guy was not the rational asshole he was in the 80s. He wrote the Quran in his own blood as a publicity stunt to demonstrate his piousness (despite that possibly being blasphemic).

Sure, I doubt he would invade Kuwait, and if he was to do so, it would be a few years later on when he was truly a lunatic, but I don't think the guy ever really learned his lesson.
 
Clinton Probably would've launched something similar to Dessert Storm if Saddam were to invade again. Clinton wasn't afraid to use force, although I do question whether Clinton, especially that early in his first term could get the UN support Bush got in the 1991 war OTL.

If Saddam started it so soon after the first war I think the international support might even be greater. I also think they might think removing him was the only way since apparently kicking his teeth in wasn't enough the first time. while that sounds a lot like 2003, it would be a lot easier with more international support

Question: Why? Saddam isn't that suicidal, is he?

Now that's out the way, Coalition goes in again and deposes him. UN will likely back the intervention.

on thing I was always amazed about Saddam, the guy was never afraid to lose a war. even right after the devastating Iran Iraq conflict he went right into Kuwait. I know he didn't expect a fight but the guy could take a bloody nose like no one else

This is extremely unlikely. Saddam was not crazy, but was a highly rational and ruthless man focused exclusively on maintaining his position in Iraq. How would invading Kuwait again help him achieve his objective? He learned his lesson very well in 1991.

Saddam basically lost it during the 90s. I don't know if '94 was too early in his descent into Sunni radical insanity, but the guy was not the rational asshole he was in the 80s. He wrote the Quran in his own blood as a publicity stunt to demonstrate his piousness (despite that possibly being blasphemic).

Sure, I doubt he would invade Kuwait, and if he was to do so, it would be a few years later on when he was truly a lunatic, but I don't think the guy ever really learned his lesson.

yea, its hard to say, 80s saddam was a smart guy, brutal but smart, but later one he was really losing it. the younger guy would have learned, the later one? who knows?
 
I really don't think Saddam would do it again because American forces would easily repel them. If he does, the Allies will remove him for good this time.

Iraq tries to invade Kuwait, Allied forces based there repel the invasion. Allied forces march on Baghdad, locate Saddam and his top officials for war crimes. The plans Bush used OTL would be here too. The Iraqi army and police are dismantled to remoe Baathist influence. WMDs are searched for an actually dismantled.

The insurgency rises to power and starts a civil war. Al-Qaeda will not rise in Iraq though, it's too young. Iraq forms a provisional government and US forces leave permanent bases there to quell the civil war.
 

Geico

Banned
Things that will happen
The Coalition invades Iraq to remove Saddam
The Coalition will be much larger
The Shia and Kurds will revolt and get support this time

Why it will be easier for the Coalition
The US already have lots of troops, ships, and planes in the region
The PLO won't support Iraq, they are trying to get US support

Russia will play a larger role, at the time they were trying to start a global
partnership of US-RUSSIA as global policemen

Things will go better, as more international help and support means more troops. We will get help from the Shia and Kurds. Clinton will be smarter and keep some government, not start from scratch like Dubya.

And he won't be listening to idiots like Rumsfeld and Cheney. And this was before 9/11 so people haven't been so radical so terrorist cells won't be starting up. It won't be American Imperialism but a Global Coalition of Freedom
 
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