Saddam holds off invading Kuwait

It doesn't really change the outcome for Iraq. You'd still be within that window when the USSR/RSFSR/Russia and China are both in favor of using the U.N. Security Council to authorize a USA-led counter-invasion force. And you'd still have G.H.W. Bush as President of the USA, with more or less the same cabinet, security team, and joint chiefs. So the decision to counter-invade Iraq would proceed the same, and given how badly Iraq got beaten in OTL, I doubt another year of preparation would have helped.
 
I think the main effect if he invades later will be George Bush Sr.'s reelection. During the Gulf War Bush's popularity, if I'm remembering correctly, essentially reached its height. You delay the Gulf War, and then let the Gulf War in 1992 proceed on schedule, Bush's popularity reaches its height right before the election. Unless Bush does something really stupid, he gets a second term.

Now, because the Gulf War happens in 1992 and not 1991, there's a chance Democrats won't feel as threatened by Bush's popularity as they did historically. So Clinton's nomination might be butterflied away.
 
Now, because the Gulf War happens in 1992 and not 1991, there's a chance Democrats won't feel as threatened by Bush's popularity as they did historically. So Clinton's nomination might be butterflied away.

So we might see Quayle vs Clinton in 1996? ;)
 
Even better to wait till 1993 with Bosnian war going full blast.couldbe used for propaganda.

however you need to change Ira-Kuwaiti relationsfor the better for Saddam to wai.
 
Even better to wait till 1993 with Bosnian war going full blast.couldbe used for propaganda.

however you need to change Ira-Kuwaiti relationsfor the better for Saddam to wai.

No one would know about that though.

Also let us not forget Perot in all of this. In 1992 you have the fiscal conservative, and the moral conservative. Perot got almost 19% of the votes that would go to Bush. With a war on do the people who liked the concept of direct electronic democracy, ending job outsourcing, and protectionist polcies see Bush as the better choice?

Plus when does Saddam invade? If its simialr to OTL we have him attacking in August of 1992, and OTL operations in Iraq did not start till January. So in 1992 you got Saddam invading, and in three months the election. I can see someone saying "You vote for Bush you vote for going to war."

In hindsight we now the Gulf War was a massive success, yet at the time people really saw mountains of body bags coming home. That is not good in an election year.
 
Top