Saddam encounters the Arab Spring

The problem is post '91 sanctions. If only Saddam had stayed out of Kuwait in 1990, this would've been possible, eventually.



Same thing. Post gulf crisis, the major powers kept hounding Iraq to disarm. Of course, even if this hadn't been the case, Israel would keep trying its best to impede Iraq's efforts, just like it bombed Osirak and killed Bull. Still, Iraq may have achieved its goals had it not foolishly gotten the whole world on its back in 1990 and subsequently.
The first time Israel could attack while Iraq was caught off guard, but the second time it was not so easy.
Without the Gulf War, in the mid-to-late 1990s, Iraq would have an air defense unit equipped with hundreds of Su-27s and several battalion SA-10 surface-to-air missiles. Tel Aviv’s reenactment of the Operation Babylon was likely to be prepared for a fiasco.
 
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Without the Gulf War, in the mid-to-late 1990s, Iraq would have an air defense unit equipped with hundreds of Su-27s and several battalion SA-10 surface-to-air missiles. Tel Aviv’s reenactment of thr Operation Babylon was likely to be prepared for a fiasco.

But assuming Saddam initially took Kuwait in 1990, the US and other major powers would prevent Iraq from importing weapons. Even after he was driven out, they were still on his back a long time. I think the same would've happened even had he pulled out and avoided a war. The survival of his armed forces, and his reputation as a threat, would've made an arms embargo at least as likely as in the OTL.
If the USSR were still around in the 1990s, that would've been one thing, but in real life Russia was then subservient to the US.
 

elkarlo

Banned
I don't think the Iraqi army was better than the Syrian, which was quite capable of crushing internal dissent, notably in Hama in '82.



Bashir may have been perceived as a wimp. Dunno about Ghadafy, who had the disadvantage of having to fight foreigners bent on getting rid of him.

Still, the Syrians did very poorly until the Russians bailed them out. They'd just send BMPs down streets unsupported and they'd be killed. It was very poorly done imho. I don't think the Syrian army circa 2011 was any where near as effective as the Iraqi army was even in 2003.

Libya, was winning before intervention. BUT the rebels had advanced pretty far and it was a close fought affair until they started using AAA on the rebels.

Libyans and Syrians still lose to WWII Italians imho
 
Still, the Syrians did very poorly until the Russians bailed them out. They'd just send BMPs down streets unsupported and they'd be killed. It was very poorly done imho.

Well, the Syrian army was, after all, trained for conventional operations. And who were they fighting? Other Syrians, many of them army deserters.

Libyans and Syrians still lose to WWII Italians imho

I don't think so. Arabs may not have been tactically proficient but at least they had guts, instead of surrendering en masse at the least sign of trouble.
 
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