Assuming that Saddam’s withdrawal from Kuwait in 1990 prevented the Gulf War and continued to rule until the Arab Spring in 2010, what would happen in the country?
If Saddam withdraw from Kuwait, he can avoid the Gulf War, and there will be no later Shiite uprisings and Kurdish riots, and there will be no international embargo. However, Saddam Hussein was still isolated in the Arab world. Both the Gulf countries and Syria were enemies of him. It was also difficult for domestic economic problems to be solved through Kuwait’s levy.
Without an international embargo, Iraq’s mortality rate would be low, population growth would become high, and pressure would exist. It is estimated that the economy was still half-dead.
Then in 2010, the Arab Spring broke out.
Saddam certainly chose to suppress by force, and the civil war broke out.
Turkey chose to send the Kurdish Workers’ Party arms with its agreement to the border to try to create a Kurdish buffer zone in northern Iraq.
Iran and Syria, which were also facing domestic problems, fully support the Shiites’ "resistance to violence" in order to divert domestic contradictions.
The positions of these countries were predictable.
But what choices does the Gulf countries make? Is it to support Saddam and his army, or is it another anti-Saddam faction that with supports of Al Qaeda compete with Iran for the dominance of the opposition?
What about the United States? It was impossible for the United States to accept Iran to control Iraq, then the United States will choose to support the Iraqi military forces to overthrow Saddam and then "rebuild domestic order" through a coup under the liberal "opposition". Or join forces with Turkey and the Gulf countries to piece together a Sunni-dominated opposition united front?
If Saddam withdraw from Kuwait, he can avoid the Gulf War, and there will be no later Shiite uprisings and Kurdish riots, and there will be no international embargo. However, Saddam Hussein was still isolated in the Arab world. Both the Gulf countries and Syria were enemies of him. It was also difficult for domestic economic problems to be solved through Kuwait’s levy.
Without an international embargo, Iraq’s mortality rate would be low, population growth would become high, and pressure would exist. It is estimated that the economy was still half-dead.
Then in 2010, the Arab Spring broke out.
Saddam certainly chose to suppress by force, and the civil war broke out.
Turkey chose to send the Kurdish Workers’ Party arms with its agreement to the border to try to create a Kurdish buffer zone in northern Iraq.
Iran and Syria, which were also facing domestic problems, fully support the Shiites’ "resistance to violence" in order to divert domestic contradictions.
The positions of these countries were predictable.
But what choices does the Gulf countries make? Is it to support Saddam and his army, or is it another anti-Saddam faction that with supports of Al Qaeda compete with Iran for the dominance of the opposition?
What about the United States? It was impossible for the United States to accept Iran to control Iraq, then the United States will choose to support the Iraqi military forces to overthrow Saddam and then "rebuild domestic order" through a coup under the liberal "opposition". Or join forces with Turkey and the Gulf countries to piece together a Sunni-dominated opposition united front?