Saddam encounters the Arab Spring

Assuming that Saddam’s withdrawal from Kuwait in 1990 prevented the Gulf War and continued to rule until the Arab Spring in 2010, what would happen in the country?
If Saddam withdraw from Kuwait, he can avoid the Gulf War, and there will be no later Shiite uprisings and Kurdish riots, and there will be no international embargo. However, Saddam Hussein was still isolated in the Arab world. Both the Gulf countries and Syria were enemies of him. It was also difficult for domestic economic problems to be solved through Kuwait’s levy.
Without an international embargo, Iraq’s mortality rate would be low, population growth would become high, and pressure would exist. It is estimated that the economy was still half-dead.
Then in 2010, the Arab Spring broke out.
Saddam certainly chose to suppress by force, and the civil war broke out.
Turkey chose to send the Kurdish Workers’ Party arms with its agreement to the border to try to create a Kurdish buffer zone in northern Iraq.
Iran and Syria, which were also facing domestic problems, fully support the Shiites’ "resistance to violence" in order to divert domestic contradictions.
The positions of these countries were predictable.
But what choices does the Gulf countries make? Is it to support Saddam and his army, or is it another anti-Saddam faction that with supports of Al Qaeda compete with Iran for the dominance of the opposition?
What about the United States? It was impossible for the United States to accept Iran to control Iraq, then the United States will choose to support the Iraqi military forces to overthrow Saddam and then "rebuild domestic order" through a coup under the liberal "opposition". Or join forces with Turkey and the Gulf countries to piece together a Sunni-dominated opposition united front?
 
If there is no Gulf War, at least it seems that Iraq is a much harder opponent than Libya, Syria and even Iran - considering Iran's long-term sanctions and Syria's lack of funds.
Iraq should be financially more affluent. When it comes to the big sale after the collapse of the Soviet Union, it is conceivable that his army looks strong and scary with first-class Russian (and possibly French) weapons.
An Iraq that has not experienced the Gulf War for 20 years to maintain peace, it is not too overestimated to say that its air force is equipped with one or two hundred Su-27s and Rafales. Such a force seems to be more scary than Iran and Syria. If they are not facing the United States but against neighboring countries, they may not only look scary.
And then what is the status of Iraq’s nuclear program and ballistic missiles now?
 
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BigBlueBox

Banned
Turkey chose to send the Kurdish Workers’ Party arms with its agreement to the border to try to create a Kurdish buffer zone in northern Iraq.
Why on Earth would Turkey support the PKK? Seriously, this is like someone suggesting the America would support Los Zetas cartel to create a buffer zone if the Mexican government collapsed. Turkey probably won’t support any Kurdish group - if they chose to get involved, they would support local Turkmen. But if they had to choose a Kurdish group to support, it would be the KDP Peshmerga.
 
Why on Earth would Turkey support the PKK? Seriously, this is like someone suggesting the America would support Los Zetas cartel to create a buffer zone if the Mexican government collapsed. Turkey probably won’t support any Kurdish group - if they chose to get involved, they would support local Turkmen. But if they had to choose a Kurdish group to support, it would be the KDP Peshmerga.
Yeah you are right, is there a lot of Turkmen in Iraq?
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
Yeah you are right, is there a lot of Turkmen in Iraq?
There’s some in the Mosul region and the Kirkuk region, and they are in a few other places as well. Overall there is 1-4 million of them. (As you can imagine, different groups have interests in manipulating the statistics to be higher or lower, so getting a good estimate is tough.)
 
I don't see Iraq collapsing due to the Arab Spring,Saddam crushed a massive uprising after getting his army wreaked in the gulf war in only a month and manged to survive the some UN toughest sanctions until the world's reigning superpower invaded.

Without the gulf war, You have still have Saddam's large army, Saddam prestige from preventing Iran from taking Iraq,and the Iraqi government can throw it's oil money at the problem.
 
Depending on how this Arab spring overlaps with the Green Movement in Iran, we could be looking at a Second Iran-Iraq war to prevent greater domestic unrest by shoring up nationalist sentiment about a war.
 
Depending on how this Arab spring overlaps with the Green Movement in Iran, we could be looking at a Second Iran-Iraq war to prevent greater domestic unrest by shoring up nationalist sentiment about a war.
Unless the green movement turns into an Iranian civil war. Saddam won't invade.
 
I don't see Iraq collapsing due to the Arab Spring,Saddam crushed a massive uprising after getting his army wreaked in the gulf war in only a month and manged to survive the some UN toughest sanctions until the world's reigning superpower invaded.

Without the gulf war, You have still have Saddam's large army, Saddam prestige from preventing Iran from taking Iraq,and the Iraqi government can throw it's oil money at the problem.
I have a very simple estimate.Iraq’s oil reserves are a little less than Iran’s, and it’s about 15 billion barrels to Iran’s 17 billion barrels. This is the economic entity of both countries.
Iraq’s population is only half that of Iran.Therefore, I tend to think that Iraq has more funds than Iran to arm the army in addition to buying people.
 
Depending on how this Arab spring overlaps with the Green Movement in Iran, we could be looking at a Second Iran-Iraq war to prevent greater domestic unrest by shoring up nationalist sentiment about a war.
Judging from the general development of the Arab Spring, if there is no external force involved, Saddam can control the situation. If foreign forces intervene, it is hard to say, depending on the extent of intervention.
But I am curious that the Arab Spring has not affected Iran. The dissatisfaction of the Iranian middle class with the current system is also strong.
 
Judging from the general development of the Arab Spring, if there is no external force involved, Saddam can control the situation. If foreign forces intervene, it is hard to say, depending on the extent of intervention.
I can't see a major Foreign intervention as it would take too much time in terms of decision making and getting prepared by which point any uprising or protests would already be crushed.
 
I can't see a major Foreign intervention as it would take too much time in terms of decision making and getting prepared by which point any uprising or protests would already be crushed.
You mean that a autocracy but Anti-Iranian's pro-American Iraq is what that America can be accepted, right?
 
Even pre-Iraqi Freedom it would have been very hard for rebels to dislodge him, if at all. Without Desert Storm? I'd guess near impossible, unless the CIA chooses to leave a giant mess again.
 

elkarlo

Banned
I don't see Iraq collapsing due to the Arab Spring,Saddam crushed a massive uprising after getting his army wreaked in the gulf war in only a month and manged to survive the some UN toughest sanctions until the world's reigning superpower invaded.

Without the gulf war, You have still have Saddam's large army, Saddam prestige from preventing Iran from taking Iraq,and the Iraqi government can throw it's oil money at the problem.
Yes, unlike the Libyan and Syrian armies, the Iraqi army could fight to a degree. They were also afraid of Sadam in a Stalin like way. So you wouldn't see govt forces collapse like they did in Syria and Libya.
 
Yes, unlike the Libyan and Syrian armies, the Iraqi army could fight to a degree. They were also afraid of Sadam in a Stalin like way. So you wouldn't see govt forces collapse like they did in Syria and Libya.
In addition, with Saddam’s control over the Iraqi Armed Force, even if the United States is looking for an agent, it can only be selected from the high-level powerful officials within the Baath Party.
 

elkarlo

Banned
In addition, with Saddam’s control over the Iraqi Armed Force, even if the United States is looking for an agent, it can only be selected from the high-level powerful officials within the Baath Party.
Should have done that IRL . In both scenarios, there wouldn't be anyone with experience and national pull who could've lead the country, that wasn't a bathist
 
Should have done that IRL . In both scenarios, there wouldn't be anyone with experience and national pull who could've lead the country, that wasn't a bathist
The American Government just repeat their experience in Nazi Germany mechanically, that's the worst solve.
 
I don't see Iraq collapsing due to the Arab Spring,Saddam crushed a massive uprising after getting his army wreaked in the gulf war in only a month and manged to survive the some UN toughest sanctions until the world's reigning superpower invaded.

Without the gulf war, You have still have Saddam's large army, Saddam prestige from preventing Iran from taking Iraq,and the Iraqi government can throw it's oil money at the problem.

Still, the scenario of the OP would've been better if, instead of pulling out of Kuwait, Saddam didn't invade in the first place. He may have avoided a coalition attack, had he pulled out by January '91. Still, sanctions remained and were very debilitating. Also, while I think it's reasonable to think Saddam would've lived to 2011, we can't be sure. He was sort of obese. Had he remained in power, he probably would've kept stuffing himself and maybe suffered a stroke or heart attack by 2009(?).
 
Yes, unlike the Libyan and Syrian armies, the Iraqi army could fight to a degree

I don't think the Iraqi army was better than the Syrian, which was quite capable of crushing internal dissent, notably in Hama in '82.

They were also afraid of Sadam in a Stalin like way. So you wouldn't see govt forces collapse like they did in Syria and Libya.

Bashir may have been perceived as a wimp. Dunno about Ghadafy, who had the disadvantage of having to fight foreigners bent on getting rid of him.
 
An Iraq that has not experienced the Gulf War for 20 years to maintain peace, it is not too overestimated to say that its air force is equipped with one or two hundred Su-27s and Rafales.

The problem is post '91 sanctions. If only Saddam had stayed out of Kuwait in 1990, this would've been possible, eventually.


And then what is the status of Iraq’s nuclear program and ballistic missiles now?

Same thing. Post gulf crisis, the major powers kept hounding Iraq to disarm. Of course, even if this hadn't been the case, Israel would keep trying its best to impede Iraq's efforts, just like it bombed Osirak and killed Bull. Still, Iraq may have achieved its goals had it not foolishly gotten the whole world on its back in 1990 and subsequently.
 
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