Saddam at the trigger

http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Se...dam-key-in-early-CIA-plot/UPI-65571050017416/

According to another former senior State Department official, Saddam, while only in his early 20s, became a part of a U.S. plot to get rid of Qasim. According to this source, Saddam was installed in an apartment in Baghdad on al-Rashid Street directly opposite Qasim's office in Iraq's Ministry of Defense, to observe Qasim's movements. Adel Darwish, Middle East expert and author of "Unholy Babylon," said the move was done "with full knowledge of the CIA," and that Saddam's CIA handler was an Iraqi dentist working for CIA and Egyptian intelligence. U.S. officials separately confirmed Darwish's account.
Darwish said that Saddam's paymaster was Capt. Abdel Maquid Farid, the assistant military attaché at the Egyptian Embassy who paid for the apartment from his own personal account. Three former senior U.S. officials have confirmed that this is accurate.
The assassination was set for Oct. 7, 1959, but it was completely botched. Accounts differ. One former CIA official said that the 22-year-old Saddam lost his nerve and began firing too soon, killing Qasim's driver and only wounding Qasim in the shoulder and arm. Darwish told UPI that one of the assassins had bullets that did not fit his gun and that another had a hand grenade that got stuck in the lining of his coat.
"It bordered on farce," a former senior U.S. intelligence official said. But Qasim, hiding on the floor of his car, escaped death, and Saddam, whose calf had been grazed by a fellow would-be assassin, escaped to Tikrit, thanks to CIA and Egyptian intelligence agents, several U.S. government officials said.


WI he had managed to kill Qasim?
 
Not much difference, I don't think. Qasim didn't last much longer anyway. The Baathists might have gained power a couple years earlier.
 
Things could go a lot of ways, depending on who replaces Qasim. I think the most likely candidate for new president would be Abdul Salam Arif. He was pretty popular, was a major government figure and became a big rival of Qasim, and did become president in OTL after Qasim's real death in 1963. If Arif comes to power that presents some very interesting possibilities. I've actually thought about this before as pan-Arabism is one of my favorite post-WWII lost causes.

Let's keep in mind that the United Arab Republic still existed in 1959 and there was significant support in Iraq for joining it. Arif was pro-Nasser and very supportive of the UAR and pan-Arabism, but by the time he came to power in OTL the UAR had already broken up. Even then there was a lot of talk in the early 60s of the UAR reforming and including Iraq. If Arif came to power in 1959, then I think it's very possible that Iraq would've joined the UAR. OTL the UAR broke up because the Syrians resented Egypt being the dominant partner and there being a sense that Syria had become part of Egypt rather than the two states having formed a union of equals. If Iraq joined the UAR though, then they might help to balance out the Egyptians somewhat. Egyptians would still be a majority of the population but it wouldn't be quite as overwhelming as in the OTL UAR and the inclusion of Iraqi leaders would lead to a more balanced leadership. I think that a UAR which included Iraq would have a very real chance of enduring and quite possibly growing over time.
 
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Arif was pro-Nasser and very supportive of the UAR and pan-Arabism, but by the time he came to power in OTL the UAR had already broken up.

Is this why Nasser supported the assassination attempt, or was it out of fear of an Arab state turning communist? Or was it for both reasons?
 
Is this why Nasser supported the assassination attempt, or was it out of fear of an Arab state turning communist? Or was it for both reasons?

More the first, as Qasim was not too friendly to Nasser and pan-Arabism and it was well known that there were a lot of pro-Nasser officers in the army who might take Qasim's place.
 
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