Saddam and Kim Il Sung, 1991 Joint Offensive

After Saddam's conquest of Kuwait, he and Kim Il Sung conspire together for further mischief. On August 21st Iraq invades Saudi Arabia and North Korea invades the South.

How much of a spanner does this throw into American planning and how long does it take the US to win? How many casualties.
 

Art

Monthly Donor
Lots . . .

But Sung will go down. It will NOT be cheap, but maybe his own people will turn on the (Dear Leader).
 
After Saddam's conquest of Kuwait, he and Kim Il Sung conspire together for further mischief. On August 21st Iraq invades Saudi Arabia and North Korea invades the South.

How much of a spanner does this throw into American planning and how long does it take the US to win? How many casualties.


Tricky one....Normally South Korea would have priority....but with all the oil reserves at stake, the US would have to split its' forces. However South Korea should be superior, due to better technology, than the Northern neighbours, where as Iraq is much superior to Saudi Arabia....maybe the US has to initially support Saudi Arabia....but parallel start to pound North Korea.
 
Most of the military on the ground goes to the Saudi's while the in place US and SK units fight a holding action, Saddam gets steamrollered as OTL, while North Korea gets bombarded night and day by allied air. The gulf war probably stops once Kuwait is retaken while reserves are mobilised and massive force shifted to South Korea.

The resulting war eventually knocks out the North but probably doesn't break it since it's unlikely the allies can invade NK proper without China getting involved. Eventual stalemate, much as it always was with umpteen hundred thousand civs dead for no gain.

North Korea is probably hurt badly enough that combined with the fall of the Soviet Union, it might collapse during the famines that were coming soon after, but then it is North Korea we're talking about here. Either way if both survive the '90's they end up at the top of Bush jr's to do list.
 
Most of the military on the ground goes to the Saudi's while the in place US and SK units fight a holding action, Saddam gets steamrollered as OTL, while North Korea gets bombarded night and day by allied air. The gulf war probably stops once Kuwait is retaken while reserves are mobilised and massive force shifted to South Korea.

The resulting war eventually knocks out the North but probably doesn't break it since it's unlikely the allies can invade NK proper without China getting involved. Eventual stalemate, much as it always was with umpteen hundred thousand civs dead for no gain.

North Korea is probably hurt badly enough that combined with the fall of the Soviet Union, it might collapse during the famines that were coming soon after, but then it is North Korea we're talking about here. Either way if both survive the '90's they end up at the top of Bush jr's to do list.

There is no way that China is going to get involved in a war with the United States over North Korea at this time. The Chinese economy is finally taking off, they're not going to throw it all away for Kim Il Sung.

Nor are the South Koreans just going to stop at the border, they're going to counter attack across it and go as far as they can. The North would have inflicted 100,000 civilian casualties in Seoul. This isn't the ROK of 1951, the South Korean army was approaching 1st world status at this time. The US would not be able to constrain S. Korean action in that circumstance, nor would Bush 41 want to.

Furthermore Kim Il Sung would likely initiate the use of chemical weapons and Sadam would follow after seeing the lack of nuclear response. ( I know Bush threatened the use of tactical nuclear weapons, but I'm highly skeptical he would have used them in retaliation for anything short of nukes. )
 

Sumeragi

Banned
Néocon ASB dream/nightmare. No chances in hell, no real links at all between them.
This.

In addition, Kim Il Sung was in a reconciliation mood, and was working to get some treaties done when he suddenly died in 1994. Heaven knows what could have been if he lived at least two years longer.....
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Key words - Rice Paddy

The terrain in the east is not good for the attacker. North of Seoul, there are rice paddies, which the North Korean tanks will sink into the mud. There are but a few easy-to-guard, easy-to-shut-down roads to the border. Seoul will be destroyed by artillery, but the NK land forces will make almost no gain. This will be easy for the Americans. With the initial land advance stopped, the USA/SK will gain air supremacy and the slowly destroy the NK from the air. South Korean and USA land forces already in Korea/Japan will be more than enough to win. With Seoul already destroyed, conquering NK will be the #2 priority for the USA.

The Saudi war will be the main focus for the American forces in Europe and North America, and the Saudi campaign will go much the same as if nothing was happening in SK. The USA will likely call up every last reserve unit instead of just a large share of them. Maybe even the activate the selective service part, but i doubt anyone would actually be drafted. It takes a few weeks to get the selective service going, so this might be a prudent step.

Kim would have to be literally insane to attack in the summer. You can safely ignore any report of a planned NK attack from May to October of each year.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Furthermore Kim Il Sung would likely initiate the use of chemical weapons and Sadam would follow after seeing the lack of nuclear response. ( I know Bush threatened the use of tactical nuclear weapons, but I'm highly skeptical he would have used them in retaliation for anything short of nukes. )

Do you have a source for Bush would not use nuclear weapons in Iraq after a chemical attack?
 
Do you have a source for Bush would not use nuclear weapons in Iraq after a chemical attack?

I didn't claim to have a source. I simply said I was skeptical he would do so. It's easy to threaten to use nuclear weapons, much harder to push the button.
 
Saddam gets exactly what he got OTL, and Kim is force to endure the displeasure of the USN. It may possible extend the mothballed life of the Iowas if they're recalled to service to give fire-support to the ROK.
 
Kim il Sung in the 1990s (Well, until his death) was actually working with reconciliation with the South. He met Jimmy Carter 3 weeks before his death, and there was to be the first ever meeting between himself and the South Korean President just a week or two after his death. Kim il Sung would never risk ruining that.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
The North invaded the South on the 25th of June.

I was talking about in modern times, not 1951. In 1951, the North had an overwhelming military advantage and attack an unprepared foe. In the passing 40 years, the South Korea army has greatly improved, the border has been mined and fortified, and the South Koreans have had 40 years to plan for this attack scenario. I stand by my statement that Kim would have to be literally insane to attack in the May through October time frame.
 

Sumeragi

Banned
The North invaded the South on the 25th of June.
Back then the monsoon season started in late July. In modern times, however, it has crept up to the point that things would start showering in early June. The change of the weather means that we have to use different schedules.
 
If these two dictators worked in concert I think a much greater fighting contribution from third parties in both wars. If France, Italy and Germany matched Britain`s contribution it would free up considerable US forces to fight in Korea.

In addition countries like Australia, Japan, Tiaiwan, Singapore etc would probably send significant forces to Korea when they sent token or no contributions to the Gulf.
 
The U.S. military's role in South Korea as of 2011 is primarily logistical support and air cover.

If an invasion happens in 2011, the South Koreans will be doing the majority of the fighting, with the USFK in the background supporting them.

However, back in 1991, the USFK was much more battle capable in handling a North Korean invasion, primarily because the South Korean military was not as developed as is today.

It's one of the reasons why so many in the U.S. support withdrawal from South Korea, as the South Koreans are more than capable of repelling any North Korean invasion without USFK support.

I don't know if any of you on here know this, but in 1994, a Second Korean War was very close to reality as the United States was mere hours from launching a strike on a North Korean weapons facility, possibly restarting a war. However, the strike was aborted at the last moment, due to a meeting between former U.S. President Jimmy Carter and North Korean authorities.
 
Well, Timmy, you've basically described this is irrational and suicidal for North Korea. So what makes North Korea's leadership insane enough to try it.
 
Well, Timmy, you've basically described this is irrational and suicidal for North Korea. So what makes North Korea's leadership insane enough to try it.

The superiority of western arms over Soviet was not well understood prior to the Gulf War, lots of analysts predicted many thousands of casualties. I've seen interviews where Powell said he thought there might be as many as 5000, Shwarzcopf 2-3000. American staying power after Vietnam was also much in doubt.
 
Kim Il-sung was in a reformist mood; had he lived another two years there could've been unification.

Kim Jong-il on the other hand was so depressed after his father's death he nearly committed suicide. So move up Kim Il-sung's death, which moves up Kim Jong-il's depression. It isn't that hard for Kim Jong-il, someone who aspires to be Bond Villain #1, to fulfill both his megalomania and his then-suicidal tendencies with a Second Phase to the Korean War in 1991.
 
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