Here Sadat believes that Libyan resentment at Gaddafi's incompetence, combined with the wealth and success of Libyans in the soon-to-be-established Republic of Cyrenaica, would be sufficient to cause a popular uprising which would, hopefully, unseat Gaddafi, without the need for a "drive to Tripoli" and all the difficult logistics (etc.) issues whih it would entail. This is not OTL Sadat - craftier and more concerned with the permanent removal of both Libya and, later, Israel from the regional scene.![]()
Gaddafi is an idiot, I agree with that.
However, IMHO he could pretty much win the award for 'dictator with the most staying power'.
He has survived dozens of (possible) coups in the '70s/80s alone from within his regime/the military. He survived (in no particular order):
- the OTL conflict with Egypt which he lost;
- the 200 mile EEZ conflict with the US (Navy) which he lost badly;
- the war with Chad which he lost badly;
- the US war on terror/axis of evil (by ditching his WMD program);
- the war with Uganda against Tanzania which he lost;
- close relationships with persons such as Idi Amin, Charles Taylor, Milosevic, Mengistu etc. People who mostly ended up dead or imprisoned much earlier then Gaddafi.
IRL the loss of Tripoli wasn't even enough to get him captured/killed. With his powerbase in Sirte (outside of Cyrenaica) the loss of Cyrenaica alone isn't going to be enough to get him unseated. All Egypt is predictably to gain is an eternal and rabid enemy on it's Western border.