Sadat's War

Here Sadat believes that Libyan resentment at Gaddafi's incompetence, combined with the wealth and success of Libyans in the soon-to-be-established Republic of Cyrenaica, would be sufficient to cause a popular uprising which would, hopefully, unseat Gaddafi, without the need for a "drive to Tripoli" and all the difficult logistics (etc.) issues whih it would entail. This is not OTL Sadat - craftier and more concerned with the permanent removal of both Libya and, later, Israel from the regional scene.:D:p;)

Gaddafi is an idiot, I agree with that. :p
However, IMHO he could pretty much win the award for 'dictator with the most staying power'.

He has survived dozens of (possible) coups in the '70s/80s alone from within his regime/the military. He survived (in no particular order):
- the OTL conflict with Egypt which he lost;
- the 200 mile EEZ conflict with the US (Navy) which he lost badly;
- the war with Chad which he lost badly;
- the US war on terror/axis of evil (by ditching his WMD program);
- the war with Uganda against Tanzania which he lost;
- close relationships with persons such as Idi Amin, Charles Taylor, Milosevic, Mengistu etc. People who mostly ended up dead or imprisoned much earlier then Gaddafi.

IRL the loss of Tripoli wasn't even enough to get him captured/killed. With his powerbase in Sirte (outside of Cyrenaica) the loss of Cyrenaica alone isn't going to be enough to get him unseated. All Egypt is predictably to gain is an eternal and rabid enemy on it's Western border.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Annexing Cyrenaica would have been retarded. First of all Gadaffi's regime will actually grow stronger without Cyrenaica, since most of the anti- Gadaffi Libyans were Cyrenaicans during the 70s and 80s. Also Egypt would have a piece of land that would be painful to hold on to. The Cyrenaicans would consider themselves Libyans and see the Egyptians as illegal foreign occupiers.

And if the Camp Davis happen in this TL, well things would look very bleak for the Egyptians, since all other Arab governments would side with Libya in the long run.
 
Cyrenaica has a small population, I think the Egyptian army will handle it.
Besides migration of egyptians to cities in Cyrenaica would decrease the amount of natives there.
 
Annexing Cyrenaica would have been retarded. First of all Gadaffi's regime will actually grow stronger without Cyrenaica, since most of the anti- Gadaffi Libyans were Cyrenaicans during the 70s and 80s. Also Egypt would have a piece of land that would be painful to hold on to. The Cyrenaicans would consider themselves Libyans and see the Egyptians as illegal foreign occupiers.

And if the Camp Davis happen in this TL, well things would look very bleak for the Egyptians, since all other Arab governments would side with Libya in the long run.

Would you like to tell me how Egypt would annex Tripolitania instead?
 
I think the simpler thing would be to simply install a pro-Egypt puppet regime in Libya. After a decade or a few years, stage a phony unification vote and that's it. Otherwise, just sort of do a 'Syria/Lebanon' deal.

Also, wouldn't nuking the Aswan dam kill about 40 or 50 million people? Whatever the population of Egyp it at the time?
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Not annexing anything, but placing a pro- Egyptian leader in power as DValdron suggested would be a much better deal for Egypt. This also means Egypt doesn't lose all her influence over the Arab World after Camp Davis, since there's still loyal Libya with a regime politically dependent on Egypt.
 
It's how things are done these days. An Egypt with Libya as a puppet is a good start for a Pan-Arab federation.
 
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