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Sabot Cat
Banned
Give 'em Hell, Hillary! ('08 and '12)
Data and methodology here. [*]The point of divergence for this scenario is that John Edwards does more to fulfill his promise to stay in the 2008 Democratic primary until the Convention, actively campaigning through Super Tuesday and beyond until news hits of his extramarital affair. Edwards’ participation is enough to prevent either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama from attaining the nomination cleanly, although Clinton has a small yet unambiguous lead in pledged delegates and votes at the finish line. During the convention, the Clinton and Obama camps agree to form a single ticket to unify the party in the general election after a long and sometimes vitriolic campaign. Clinton’s initial numbers in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Oregon, Virginia, and Wisconsin were a cause for concern in her campaign, and resources were diverted from the West to the Midwest, where Obama helped shore up her numbers in these states. Evidence of a complete economic collapse in the autumn radically shifted the race in favor of the Democrats, and Hillary Clinton eventually won in a landslide reminiscent of 1996, carrying numerous Southern states and winning traditional swing states like Florida and Ohio by absurd double-digit margins.
2008
States/districts in which the margin of victory was under 5%
1. Iowa, 0.22%
2. Indiana, 1.96%
3. Nevada, 3.18%
4. Colorado, 3.05%
5. Virginia, 3.30%
6. Missouri, 4.14%
States/districts in which the margin of victory was more than 5% but less than 10%
1. North Carolina, 5.46%
2. Minnesota, 6.24%
3. New Hampshire, 6.27%
4. Kentucky, 6.43%
5. Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional district, 7.28%
6. Oregon, 7.49%
7. Tennessee, 8.07%
8. Wisconsin, 8.57%
9. West Virginia, 8.88%
10. New Mexico, 9.93%
President Hillary Clinton began her term as well-liked if not universally beloved figure, and her immediate course of action was to tackle the ongoing Great Recession. Her stimulus act and healthcare plan, the American Health Choices Plan (“Hillarycare”) were incredibly controversial[1], and 2010 was to be a wave year for the Republicans.
2011 would revolve around foreign policy, with President Clinton leading a NATO intervention in Libya and negotiating the continued presence of 10,000 troops in Iraq to help train their army and support their counter-terrorism efforts[2]. On March 14th, 2011, the President organized a mission which successfully found and killed Osama bin Laden, stymieing criticisms of her foreign policy. On the domestic side of the issues, Clinton pressed Congress to pass the Employment Non-Discrimination Act in the summer of 2011, which would protect employees from being discriminated against on the basis of their gender identity and sexual orientation. All of these issues helped to set the tenor for the Republican primary, as Mike Huckabee emerged as the clear frontrunner by arguing against using troops for “nation building” and through being a leading voice against ENDA. In early 2012, Hillary Clinton announced her support for same-sex marriage, and argued that LGBT rights were human rights.
While the economy was undergoing a slow yet steady recovery, prognosticators rated President Clinton’s chances of re-election as rather slim. At the Republican National Convention, a telegenic rising star of the party –Senator Marco Rubio of Florida - was selected as former Governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansas’ running mate. Huckabee appealed to Southern states like Arkansas, Kentucky, Missouri, and West Virginia on the basis of social wedge issues, while Rubio campaigned in the West and the rapidly modernizing Southern states of Florida and Virginia, connecting to minority voters.
Clinton lagged behind in almost every reputable national poll, and the emerging electoral map had very few paths to victory. Toward the end of the election cycle, “Give ‘em Hell, Hillary!” became the crowd chant for the Clinton campaign. President Clinton laid out her vision for a more peaceful world and a more equal America, and argued that Huckabee was the antithesis of that vision. Hillary Clinton’s combative style was agreed to have been extremely effective in the debates. Meanwhile, Vice President Obama was judged to have won his debate with Senator Rubio by a wider margin than any previous presidential or vice presidential debate in American history. Nonetheless, most pollsters predicted a comfortable victory for Huckabee/Rubio. The outcome of the election would not be clear until the day after, with the markets in a panic at the potential for an electoral deadlock if the states of Kentucky and Virginia were to both be called for Huckabee. However, Virginia was called for Clinton by a margin of 0.88%, narrowly putting her over the 270 threshold to secure a second term.
2012
States/districts in which the margin of victory was under 5%
1. Kentucky, 0.03%
2. Virginia, 0.88%
3. Wisconsin, 1.60%
4. New Hampshire, 2.24%
5. Nevada, 2.64%
6. North Carolina, 3.10%
7. Oregon, 3.23%
8. Iowa, 3.51%
9. Missouri, 3.56%
10. Minnesota, 3.69%
11. West Virginia, 4.76%
12. New Mexico, 4.95%
States/districts in which the margin of victory was more than 5% but less than 10%
1. Pennsylvania, 6.62%
2. Colorado, 6.64%
3. Michigan, 7.00%
[*] Arkansas and Florida's numbers in 2012 are essentially fudged due to Huckabee and Rubio being on the Republican ticket. Also close states may not capture unexamined possibly close states not in these spreadsheets.
[1]The economic stimulus package she crafted included a $30 billion Emergency Housing Crisis Fund to combat foreclosures, $25 billion in home heating assistance grants for 37 million families, tax credits for low emission, efficient, and clean vehicles and appliances, investments in “green collar jobs”, and various tax credits for working families. Healthcare reform was also a priority, and Hillary spoke before Congress shortly after her inauguration about the need to adopt the American Health Choices Plan or “Hillarycare” as it became known by the public. Hillarycare would operate through a Health Choices Menu, an array of insurance options offered through the pre-existing program used by members of Congress for their insurance, the Federal Employee Health Benefit Program (FEHBP).
It differed from Vice President Obama’s plan proposed during the primary as it featured an individual mandate, which economists and other experts agreed was necessary to prevent a ‘free rider problem’ in Hillarycare. The plan also came with “a premium affordability tax credit” for those making below $250,000 a year, in order to ensure that health insurance premiums wouldn’t rise above a certain percentage of family income. President Hillary was concerned that the plan would fail to pass as had the 1993 proposal, and thus dropped the public option to coax Senators Joe Lieberman and Ben Nelson to help pass the American Health Choices Act on July 27, 2009.
[2] President Clinton organized a NATO intervention in Libya, which successfully assisted rebel groups in overthrowing Muammar Gaddaffi. Despite Congressional opposition and a lack of participation from most NATO members, the President continued to militarily support the new Libyan government (the National Transitional Council) at their request, for which she was criticized from the right and the left.
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Sabot Cat
Banned
Inaugural Address
Donald Trump ascended to the office of President of the United States with the lowest initial approval rating of any since the question had been first polled. At the inauguration, President Trump pledged himself to unifying a divided nation through restoring prosperity at home and peace abroad. The media gave the new President plaudits for his speech, although expectations were so low that it would have been nearly impossible to fail to exceed them. Many also expressed doubt that he could make good on his promises, as fights were expected in naming the various members of his Cabinet.
Cabinet appointments
The appointment of Exxon Mobile CEO Rex Tillerson to Secretary of State engendered controversy even among Republicans, as Tillerson had a pro-Russian foreign policy outlook, receiving the Order of Friendship from Russian President Vladimir Putin. Condoleezza Rice, Robert Gates, and James Baker all publicly defended the choice for Tillerson, Russian hawks in the Senate’s Committee on Foreign Relations, such as Marco Rubio of Florida and Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, ultimately approved the pick. Rubio in particular argued that if Tillerson did anything untoward with the office, he would be investigated under the confines of the law and that as President, Trump should be permitted to pursue his desired foreign policy unimpeded by the Senate. The confirmation vote was almost strictly by party lines, with the exception of Senator Cory Gardner (R-CO), who voted against the confirmation, as well as Senators Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) and Joe Manchin (D-WV), who voted for the confirmation.
Jeff Sessions was also confirmed for the position of Attorney General, with the Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and ranking member of the Senate Judiciary Committee Dianne Feinstein wishing to allow Sessions to be subject to “a fair and complete review”. The rest of Trump’s confirmations were eventually approved as the Republicans held sizable majorities in both Houses of Congress, and Democratic minority leadership were uninterested in failing to give Trump “a fair shake at governing”. That being said, many nominees were subject to heavy scrutiny and extensive confirmation hearings[1].
Supreme Court appointment
For the Supreme Court, conservative pundits and officials were concerned with nominating “another David Souter”. Thus arch-conservative William H. Pryor Jr. of Alabama, judge for the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eleventh Circuit was selected to fill the seat left vacant by Associate Justice Antonin Scalia’s death. A filibuster against this decision was not sustained by the Democrats, as a majority of the public supported Pryor’s confirmation, especially as he was replacing the conservative Scalia.[2] Pryor thus became the newest Associate Justice of the Supreme Court. Pryor pledged to do all he could to overturn Roe v. Wade, calling the decision “an abomination” and arguing that “abortion is murder”.
Legislation in the first 100 Days
The 115th Congress would be the most productive in recent history, as President Trump embarked on fulfilling his domestic policy agenda with Speaker Ryan[3]. The first legislation they passed with bipartisan support was the Affordable Childcare and Eldercare Act. The law allowed individuals with incomes up to $250,000 to be eligible for income tax credits for up to four children and elderly independents[4]. The law would have also required employers to give up to six weeks of maternity leave to working mothers, but the House version of the bill eliminated this provision at Speaker Ryan’s behest[5]. Trump credited Ivanka Trump for the law, and had her attend his signing of it. Congress also passed, with bipartisan support, the End the Offshoring Act, which was originally proposed as a tariff but transformed into a payroll tax reduction for employers who moved jobs back from overseas in Congress[6], and the Restoring Community Safety Act, which increased funding for police training programs, law enforcement, prosecutors, and established the Task Force on Violent Crime[7].
Congress then passed the Middle Class Tax Relief and Simplification Act, which reduced the highest individual tax rate to 33%, reduced the corporate rate from 35% to 30%[8], and repealed the “death tax” or tax on inheritance. The Congressional Budget Office projected an additional trillion in debt over the next ten years, but most Americans approved of the Middle Class Tax Relief and Simplification Act as it reduced taxes by an average of $2,940 or 4.1% of after-tax income[9]. Speaker Ryan claimed that the added debt that Democrats took issue with would be mitigated by “a gradual, sensible attrition policy” which would only permit one new employee to be hired by the federal government for every three federal workers who retire. This would be the “hiring freeze” that Trump had proposed, projected to save nearly half of the new debt ($49 billion) added by the tax cut[10]. Exceptions to this were made for the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers[11], as well as those working for the military and in public safety and health[12].
The End Illegal Immigration Act was watered down in Congress, especially pertaining to “the wall” that Trump championed during the campaign[13]. Nonetheless, new mandatory minimum federal prison sentences were added for illegally re-entering the U.S. after a previous deportation, with more years to be served if one had felony convictions. The End Illegal Immigration Act was very similar to Kate’s Law, which been proposed by Republicans in Congress during 2015[14]. Increased spending on border security was paid for in part by a new tax on remittances[15].
President Trump also made good on his promise to end banking regulations that came to fruition after the Great Recession. Despite a filibuster led by Elizabeth Warren, major changes were made to the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, including the elimination of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau[16] and the Volcker Rule[17]. The public had supported maintaining these regulations[18] but neither the public nor the Democrats could prevent the Republicans from bringing these fiscal regulations to end.
However, not all of Trump’s proposals were successful because of Congressional opposition from Republicans, Democrats, and sometimes an odd coalition of the two. On the Republican side of the ledger, a constitutional amendment to impose term limits on Congress proposed by Trump on the campaign trail failed to attain the necessary two-thirds vote in the House[19], nor did it come to a vote in the Senate[20]. The Clean Up Corruption in Washington Act[21], the School Choice and Education Opportunity Act[22], and the American Energy and Infrastructure Act all either did not come to a vote, died in committee, or failed to attain majorities in either house.
Congressional Republicans also sought to defer the repeal of the Affordable Care Act when a consensus had emerged on its replacement. While House Republicans passed a bill (identical to H.R. 3762 from 2015)[23] to repeal the ACA[24], it died in the Senate HELP Committee because HELP Chairman Lamar Alexander insisted that a replacement plan needed to be made, and Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn failed to organize the votes necessary for a discharge petition on the same basis[25]. House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy also wanted to achieve consensus before repealing the ACA[26]. However, other reforms to the bill were immediately passed in a piecemeal fashion, such as allowing the purchase of insurance across state lines[27] and ending other regulations on the health insurance industry established by the ACA.
An attempt to defund Planned Parenthood was also scuttled despite pressure from conservative activists[28]. Firstly, even among the Republican caucus support for defunding PP was not universal. Senators Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska both opposed the move, noting how funding to Planned Parenthood from the federal government would not and could not go to abortions anyway due to the Hyde Amendment. Secondly, the united Democratic minority pledged to filibuster any attempt to limit funding to these locations, and by a two-to-one margin the public was in their corner[29].
Executive actions on trade and immigration in the first 100 days
One of President Trump’s first unilateral actions as President was a withdrawal from negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership[30]. His Treasury also labeled China a currency manipulator, a move that effectively did nothing to the Chinese economy or the American one[31].More consequential was changes to the enforcement of NAFTA. NAFTA failed to be repealed in Congress, but Trump used enforcement mechanisms written into the law to harass companies doing cross-border business[32]. This was mostly targeted at trade with Mexico, as Trump granted a State Department permit to TransCanada Corp. to begin building the Keystone XL pipeline[33].
On the Mexico-oriented front, Trump ended former President Barack Obama’s Deferred Action for Child Arrivals (DACA) program[34]. Communities which did not cooperate with the deportation of undocumented immigrants, or “sanctuary cities”, had billions in federal fund set to go to them blocked by Trump[35]. Trump also expanded the definition of “criminal alien” to include drunk drivers and others, rapidly increasing the number of deportations although not to the levels promised at certain points during his campaign[36]. Trump also instructed the State Department to withhold visas from 23 countries deemed “recalcitrant” by ICE because of their failure to accept criminal aliens sent to them[37].
Beyond the first 100 days
Despite the attempt to pass maternity leave and the lack of priority given to defunding Planned Parenthood, the Trump administration was not socially liberal. Under Vice President Mike Pence’s guidance, the First Amendment Defense Act (FADA) was passed as a part of an unrelated bill. The FADA allowed people and businesses to sue the federal government for enforcing anti-LGBT discrimination statutes[38]. Furthermore, President Barack Obama’s standing executive orders on transgender rights in public schools and LGBT rights in employment were reversed, with Trump arguing that he favored a “state-by-state” approach. The policy first enumerated under Hillary Clinton’s State Department permitting transgender Americans to change their gender identities on their passports was also quietly scuttled by the Trump administration.
Net neutrality was also killed despite a voracious fight put up by some technological giants in the field in a rider to the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2018. Internet service providers began selling “internet fast lanes” and “digital customizable packages” to their customers[39]. Internet users now have to pay for “premium” packages to visit less highly-trafficked websites, with priority given to websites that have paid to be beneficiaries of the internet fast lanes[40]. Many smaller websites and user communities nearly collapsed overnight, as the diversity of content on the internet shrunk considerably. Much of the public did not oppose these measures when they were first proposed, being largely ignorant of what net neutrality was or what it entailed.[41]
In May 2017[42], Donald Trump became the first President not to invoke the presidential waiver for the Jerusalem Assembly Act. Since Bill Clinton’s second term, each President would invoke a waiver written into the law to defer the implementation of the Jerusalem Assembly Act on the basis of national security for a period of six months[43]. However, President Trump, after consultations with Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, opted to move the U.S. Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Congressional Democrats were severely divided in whether or not to unite in opposing this development. Mere days afterwards, the current embassy was attacked by a Palestinian suicide bomber, killing four and wounding fifty.
Trump’s immigration policies also engendered international controversy. Immigrants who are Muslim, from Muslim-majority countries or from a nation that had a recent terrorist incident were required to answer questions about Sharia law, gender equality, jihad, and the U.S. Constitution under the Restoring National Security Act[44]. The National Security Entry-Exit Registration System (NSEERS) was also reactivated, registering all men over sixteen from Muslim-majority nations[45]. No new Syrian refugees were permitted to enter the United States, and despite criticism from human rights groups, a majority of the public supported most if not all of these restrictions on Muslims entering the United States[46].
Ahead of the midterms, Congressional Republicans finally crafted a plan which enjoyed wide consensus from the House and Senate caucuses. The American Liberty Restoration Act[47], sponsored in the Senate by HELP Chairman Lamar Alexander and Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch, would end the individual mandate beginning in fiscal year 2019. While critics argued that it would have destabilizing effects on the entire insurance market, the public had long opposed the individual mandate, with nearly two-thirds disapproving of being penalized for failing to carry health insurance[48]. President Trump signed the bill into law to great fanfare.
Despite the public largely favoring President Trump and the Republicans’ agenda, by the autumn of 2018, the economy was stagnating. While GDP growth had been 2.8% in 2017, it fell to 0.8% in 2018 and was well short of the goal of 4% growth promised by President Trump. After an initial decrease of just 0.2% from 2016 to 2017, the unemployment rate had increased from 4.8% to 5.7% by 2018, while the federal budget deficit had increased to $933.2 billion over the same period. Many Americans also faced a nearly 8% increase in the Consumer Price Index over the last two years[49] when it had only increased 12.4% over six and a half years under President Obama[50]. While the public overall approved of Trump’s job performance, there was no groundswell of support for him going to the polls in the midterm elections.
[1] http://heavy.com/news/2016/12/donal...ter-oppose-jeff-sessions-steven-muchin-votes/
[2] http://www.gallup.com/poll/21016/public-supports-alito-nomination.aspx
[3] https://assets.donaldjtrump.com/_landings/contract/O-TRU-102316-Contractv02.pdf
[4] https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ine-child-care-policy/?utm_term=.f7bbcbbfb47f
[5] http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/01/politics/paul-ryan-family-leave-house-speaker/
[6] https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/111/s3816/text
[7] https://assets.donaldjtrump.com/_landings/contract/O-TRU-102316-Contractv02.pdf
[8] Ryan’s plan has 20%, Trump’s plan has 15%, and Moody’s Analytics is of the opinion that the Democrats could conceivably negotiate Trump-Ryan down to 30%. http://abetterway.speaker.gov/_assets/pdf/ABetterWay-Tax-Snapshot.pdf http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/publications/analysis-donald-trumps-revised-tax-plan/full https://www.economy.com/mark-zandi/documents/2016-06-17-Trumps-Economic-Policies.pdf
[9] http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2016/...x-Plans-Would-both-Cause-Much-Larger-Deficits
[10] https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...o-fighting-corruption/?utm_term=.65a23f86db52
[11] http://www.fedsmith.com/2016/11/09/federal-government-and-federal-employees-under-president-trump/
[12] https://www.donaldjtrump.com/contract/
[13] http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/trumps-border-wall-may-be-collapsing-231567
[14] http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/09/kates-law-mandatory-sentencing/403990/
[15] http://www.npr.org/2016/11/10/501597652/fact-check-donald-trumps-first-100-days-action-plan
[16] http://www.npr.org/2016/11/10/501597652/fact-check-donald-trumps-first-100-days-action-plan
[17] http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-...ises-to-dismantle-dodd-frank-bank-regulations
[18] https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Special-Poll-Report-on-Banks-and-Wall-Street.pdf
[19] https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-ever-going-to-happen/?utm_term=.d8a39f60e5af
[20] http://www.npr.org/2016/11/10/501597652/fact-check-donald-trumps-first-100-days-action-plan
[21] http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/11/13587120/lobbying-trump-corruption
[22] http://www.npr.org/sections/ed/2016/09/25/494740056/donald-trumps-plan-for-americas-schools
https://www.cato.org/blog/what-trumps-first-100-days-might-mean-education-policy
[23] http://www.forbes.com/sites/theapot...ey-carefully-craft-their-repeal/#6bcd577776b6
[24] http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/06/politics/house-obamacare-repeal-planned-parenthood/
[25] http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/obamacare-republicans-repeal-replace-232025
[26] http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/trailguide/la-na-trailguide-updates-1480442605-htmlstory.html
[27] http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/obamacare-republicans-repeal-replace-232025
[28] https://www.washingtonpost.com/blog...efeat-of-the-new-year/?utm_term=.afeecd5619aa
[29] http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...unding-planned-parenthood-supported/73016440/
[30] http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-...esident-elect-trump-may-shake-up-trade-policy
[31] http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/12/07/what-happens-if-trump-brands-china-a-currency-manipulator/
[32] http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-...esident-elect-trump-may-shake-up-trade-policy
[33] http://www.npr.org/2016/11/10/501597652/fact-check-donald-trumps-first-100-days-action-plan
[34] https://ballotpedia.org/2016_presidential_candidates_on_DACA_and_DAPA
[35] http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/19/news/economy/sanctuary-cities-trump-funding/
[36] http://www.npr.org/2016/11/10/501597652/fact-check-donald-trumps-first-100-days-action-plan
[37] http://www.npr.org/2016/11/10/501597652/fact-check-donald-trumps-first-100-days-action-plan
[38] http://www.nbcnews.com/feature/nbc-...-would-be-devastating-lgbtq-americans-n698416
[39] http://mashable.com/2014/09/06/internet-without-net-neutrality/#L7k3ElNZFsq7
[40] http://gizmodo.com/the-grim-future-of-a-world-without-net-neutrality-1501161513
[41] http://thehill.com/policy/technology/233231-poll-finds-skepticism-on-net-neutrality
[42] http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/trump-us-embassy-jerusalem-232724
[43] https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-embassy-to-jerusalem/?utm_term=.8675e534e0f0
[44] https://assets.donaldjtrump.com/_landings/contract/O-TRU-102316-Contractv02.pdf
[45] http://cjonline.com/news/2016-11-21/kobach-took-plan-department-homeland-security-trump-meeting
[46] http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box...americans-split-on-trumps-muslim-ban-proposal
[47] Yes that’s the actual name: http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/230320-gop-floats-individual-mandate-repeal
[48] http://kff.org/health-costs/poll-finding/kaiser-health-tracking-poll-november-2016/
[49] This is based on Scenario 3: Mr. Trump Goes to Washington from Moody’s Analytics: https://www.economy.com/mark-zandi/documents/2016-06-17-Trumps-Economic-Policies.pdf
[50] http://www.factcheck.org/2016/01/obamas-numbers-january-2016-update/
Donald Trump ascended to the office of President of the United States with the lowest initial approval rating of any since the question had been first polled. At the inauguration, President Trump pledged himself to unifying a divided nation through restoring prosperity at home and peace abroad. The media gave the new President plaudits for his speech, although expectations were so low that it would have been nearly impossible to fail to exceed them. Many also expressed doubt that he could make good on his promises, as fights were expected in naming the various members of his Cabinet.
Cabinet appointments
The appointment of Exxon Mobile CEO Rex Tillerson to Secretary of State engendered controversy even among Republicans, as Tillerson had a pro-Russian foreign policy outlook, receiving the Order of Friendship from Russian President Vladimir Putin. Condoleezza Rice, Robert Gates, and James Baker all publicly defended the choice for Tillerson, Russian hawks in the Senate’s Committee on Foreign Relations, such as Marco Rubio of Florida and Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, ultimately approved the pick. Rubio in particular argued that if Tillerson did anything untoward with the office, he would be investigated under the confines of the law and that as President, Trump should be permitted to pursue his desired foreign policy unimpeded by the Senate. The confirmation vote was almost strictly by party lines, with the exception of Senator Cory Gardner (R-CO), who voted against the confirmation, as well as Senators Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) and Joe Manchin (D-WV), who voted for the confirmation.
Jeff Sessions was also confirmed for the position of Attorney General, with the Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and ranking member of the Senate Judiciary Committee Dianne Feinstein wishing to allow Sessions to be subject to “a fair and complete review”. The rest of Trump’s confirmations were eventually approved as the Republicans held sizable majorities in both Houses of Congress, and Democratic minority leadership were uninterested in failing to give Trump “a fair shake at governing”. That being said, many nominees were subject to heavy scrutiny and extensive confirmation hearings[1].
Supreme Court appointment
For the Supreme Court, conservative pundits and officials were concerned with nominating “another David Souter”. Thus arch-conservative William H. Pryor Jr. of Alabama, judge for the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eleventh Circuit was selected to fill the seat left vacant by Associate Justice Antonin Scalia’s death. A filibuster against this decision was not sustained by the Democrats, as a majority of the public supported Pryor’s confirmation, especially as he was replacing the conservative Scalia.[2] Pryor thus became the newest Associate Justice of the Supreme Court. Pryor pledged to do all he could to overturn Roe v. Wade, calling the decision “an abomination” and arguing that “abortion is murder”.
Legislation in the first 100 Days
The 115th Congress would be the most productive in recent history, as President Trump embarked on fulfilling his domestic policy agenda with Speaker Ryan[3]. The first legislation they passed with bipartisan support was the Affordable Childcare and Eldercare Act. The law allowed individuals with incomes up to $250,000 to be eligible for income tax credits for up to four children and elderly independents[4]. The law would have also required employers to give up to six weeks of maternity leave to working mothers, but the House version of the bill eliminated this provision at Speaker Ryan’s behest[5]. Trump credited Ivanka Trump for the law, and had her attend his signing of it. Congress also passed, with bipartisan support, the End the Offshoring Act, which was originally proposed as a tariff but transformed into a payroll tax reduction for employers who moved jobs back from overseas in Congress[6], and the Restoring Community Safety Act, which increased funding for police training programs, law enforcement, prosecutors, and established the Task Force on Violent Crime[7].
Congress then passed the Middle Class Tax Relief and Simplification Act, which reduced the highest individual tax rate to 33%, reduced the corporate rate from 35% to 30%[8], and repealed the “death tax” or tax on inheritance. The Congressional Budget Office projected an additional trillion in debt over the next ten years, but most Americans approved of the Middle Class Tax Relief and Simplification Act as it reduced taxes by an average of $2,940 or 4.1% of after-tax income[9]. Speaker Ryan claimed that the added debt that Democrats took issue with would be mitigated by “a gradual, sensible attrition policy” which would only permit one new employee to be hired by the federal government for every three federal workers who retire. This would be the “hiring freeze” that Trump had proposed, projected to save nearly half of the new debt ($49 billion) added by the tax cut[10]. Exceptions to this were made for the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers[11], as well as those working for the military and in public safety and health[12].
The End Illegal Immigration Act was watered down in Congress, especially pertaining to “the wall” that Trump championed during the campaign[13]. Nonetheless, new mandatory minimum federal prison sentences were added for illegally re-entering the U.S. after a previous deportation, with more years to be served if one had felony convictions. The End Illegal Immigration Act was very similar to Kate’s Law, which been proposed by Republicans in Congress during 2015[14]. Increased spending on border security was paid for in part by a new tax on remittances[15].
President Trump also made good on his promise to end banking regulations that came to fruition after the Great Recession. Despite a filibuster led by Elizabeth Warren, major changes were made to the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, including the elimination of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau[16] and the Volcker Rule[17]. The public had supported maintaining these regulations[18] but neither the public nor the Democrats could prevent the Republicans from bringing these fiscal regulations to end.
However, not all of Trump’s proposals were successful because of Congressional opposition from Republicans, Democrats, and sometimes an odd coalition of the two. On the Republican side of the ledger, a constitutional amendment to impose term limits on Congress proposed by Trump on the campaign trail failed to attain the necessary two-thirds vote in the House[19], nor did it come to a vote in the Senate[20]. The Clean Up Corruption in Washington Act[21], the School Choice and Education Opportunity Act[22], and the American Energy and Infrastructure Act all either did not come to a vote, died in committee, or failed to attain majorities in either house.
Congressional Republicans also sought to defer the repeal of the Affordable Care Act when a consensus had emerged on its replacement. While House Republicans passed a bill (identical to H.R. 3762 from 2015)[23] to repeal the ACA[24], it died in the Senate HELP Committee because HELP Chairman Lamar Alexander insisted that a replacement plan needed to be made, and Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn failed to organize the votes necessary for a discharge petition on the same basis[25]. House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy also wanted to achieve consensus before repealing the ACA[26]. However, other reforms to the bill were immediately passed in a piecemeal fashion, such as allowing the purchase of insurance across state lines[27] and ending other regulations on the health insurance industry established by the ACA.
An attempt to defund Planned Parenthood was also scuttled despite pressure from conservative activists[28]. Firstly, even among the Republican caucus support for defunding PP was not universal. Senators Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska both opposed the move, noting how funding to Planned Parenthood from the federal government would not and could not go to abortions anyway due to the Hyde Amendment. Secondly, the united Democratic minority pledged to filibuster any attempt to limit funding to these locations, and by a two-to-one margin the public was in their corner[29].
Executive actions on trade and immigration in the first 100 days
One of President Trump’s first unilateral actions as President was a withdrawal from negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership[30]. His Treasury also labeled China a currency manipulator, a move that effectively did nothing to the Chinese economy or the American one[31].More consequential was changes to the enforcement of NAFTA. NAFTA failed to be repealed in Congress, but Trump used enforcement mechanisms written into the law to harass companies doing cross-border business[32]. This was mostly targeted at trade with Mexico, as Trump granted a State Department permit to TransCanada Corp. to begin building the Keystone XL pipeline[33].
On the Mexico-oriented front, Trump ended former President Barack Obama’s Deferred Action for Child Arrivals (DACA) program[34]. Communities which did not cooperate with the deportation of undocumented immigrants, or “sanctuary cities”, had billions in federal fund set to go to them blocked by Trump[35]. Trump also expanded the definition of “criminal alien” to include drunk drivers and others, rapidly increasing the number of deportations although not to the levels promised at certain points during his campaign[36]. Trump also instructed the State Department to withhold visas from 23 countries deemed “recalcitrant” by ICE because of their failure to accept criminal aliens sent to them[37].
Beyond the first 100 days
Despite the attempt to pass maternity leave and the lack of priority given to defunding Planned Parenthood, the Trump administration was not socially liberal. Under Vice President Mike Pence’s guidance, the First Amendment Defense Act (FADA) was passed as a part of an unrelated bill. The FADA allowed people and businesses to sue the federal government for enforcing anti-LGBT discrimination statutes[38]. Furthermore, President Barack Obama’s standing executive orders on transgender rights in public schools and LGBT rights in employment were reversed, with Trump arguing that he favored a “state-by-state” approach. The policy first enumerated under Hillary Clinton’s State Department permitting transgender Americans to change their gender identities on their passports was also quietly scuttled by the Trump administration.
Net neutrality was also killed despite a voracious fight put up by some technological giants in the field in a rider to the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2018. Internet service providers began selling “internet fast lanes” and “digital customizable packages” to their customers[39]. Internet users now have to pay for “premium” packages to visit less highly-trafficked websites, with priority given to websites that have paid to be beneficiaries of the internet fast lanes[40]. Many smaller websites and user communities nearly collapsed overnight, as the diversity of content on the internet shrunk considerably. Much of the public did not oppose these measures when they were first proposed, being largely ignorant of what net neutrality was or what it entailed.[41]
In May 2017[42], Donald Trump became the first President not to invoke the presidential waiver for the Jerusalem Assembly Act. Since Bill Clinton’s second term, each President would invoke a waiver written into the law to defer the implementation of the Jerusalem Assembly Act on the basis of national security for a period of six months[43]. However, President Trump, after consultations with Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, opted to move the U.S. Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Congressional Democrats were severely divided in whether or not to unite in opposing this development. Mere days afterwards, the current embassy was attacked by a Palestinian suicide bomber, killing four and wounding fifty.
Trump’s immigration policies also engendered international controversy. Immigrants who are Muslim, from Muslim-majority countries or from a nation that had a recent terrorist incident were required to answer questions about Sharia law, gender equality, jihad, and the U.S. Constitution under the Restoring National Security Act[44]. The National Security Entry-Exit Registration System (NSEERS) was also reactivated, registering all men over sixteen from Muslim-majority nations[45]. No new Syrian refugees were permitted to enter the United States, and despite criticism from human rights groups, a majority of the public supported most if not all of these restrictions on Muslims entering the United States[46].
Ahead of the midterms, Congressional Republicans finally crafted a plan which enjoyed wide consensus from the House and Senate caucuses. The American Liberty Restoration Act[47], sponsored in the Senate by HELP Chairman Lamar Alexander and Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch, would end the individual mandate beginning in fiscal year 2019. While critics argued that it would have destabilizing effects on the entire insurance market, the public had long opposed the individual mandate, with nearly two-thirds disapproving of being penalized for failing to carry health insurance[48]. President Trump signed the bill into law to great fanfare.
Despite the public largely favoring President Trump and the Republicans’ agenda, by the autumn of 2018, the economy was stagnating. While GDP growth had been 2.8% in 2017, it fell to 0.8% in 2018 and was well short of the goal of 4% growth promised by President Trump. After an initial decrease of just 0.2% from 2016 to 2017, the unemployment rate had increased from 4.8% to 5.7% by 2018, while the federal budget deficit had increased to $933.2 billion over the same period. Many Americans also faced a nearly 8% increase in the Consumer Price Index over the last two years[49] when it had only increased 12.4% over six and a half years under President Obama[50]. While the public overall approved of Trump’s job performance, there was no groundswell of support for him going to the polls in the midterm elections.
[1] http://heavy.com/news/2016/12/donal...ter-oppose-jeff-sessions-steven-muchin-votes/
[2] http://www.gallup.com/poll/21016/public-supports-alito-nomination.aspx
[3] https://assets.donaldjtrump.com/_landings/contract/O-TRU-102316-Contractv02.pdf
[4] https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ine-child-care-policy/?utm_term=.f7bbcbbfb47f
[5] http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/01/politics/paul-ryan-family-leave-house-speaker/
[6] https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/111/s3816/text
[7] https://assets.donaldjtrump.com/_landings/contract/O-TRU-102316-Contractv02.pdf
[8] Ryan’s plan has 20%, Trump’s plan has 15%, and Moody’s Analytics is of the opinion that the Democrats could conceivably negotiate Trump-Ryan down to 30%. http://abetterway.speaker.gov/_assets/pdf/ABetterWay-Tax-Snapshot.pdf http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/publications/analysis-donald-trumps-revised-tax-plan/full https://www.economy.com/mark-zandi/documents/2016-06-17-Trumps-Economic-Policies.pdf
[9] http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2016/...x-Plans-Would-both-Cause-Much-Larger-Deficits
[10] https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...o-fighting-corruption/?utm_term=.65a23f86db52
[11] http://www.fedsmith.com/2016/11/09/federal-government-and-federal-employees-under-president-trump/
[12] https://www.donaldjtrump.com/contract/
[13] http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/trumps-border-wall-may-be-collapsing-231567
[14] http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/09/kates-law-mandatory-sentencing/403990/
[15] http://www.npr.org/2016/11/10/501597652/fact-check-donald-trumps-first-100-days-action-plan
[16] http://www.npr.org/2016/11/10/501597652/fact-check-donald-trumps-first-100-days-action-plan
[17] http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-...ises-to-dismantle-dodd-frank-bank-regulations
[18] https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Special-Poll-Report-on-Banks-and-Wall-Street.pdf
[19] https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-ever-going-to-happen/?utm_term=.d8a39f60e5af
[20] http://www.npr.org/2016/11/10/501597652/fact-check-donald-trumps-first-100-days-action-plan
[21] http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/11/13587120/lobbying-trump-corruption
[22] http://www.npr.org/sections/ed/2016/09/25/494740056/donald-trumps-plan-for-americas-schools
https://www.cato.org/blog/what-trumps-first-100-days-might-mean-education-policy
[23] http://www.forbes.com/sites/theapot...ey-carefully-craft-their-repeal/#6bcd577776b6
[24] http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/06/politics/house-obamacare-repeal-planned-parenthood/
[25] http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/obamacare-republicans-repeal-replace-232025
[26] http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/trailguide/la-na-trailguide-updates-1480442605-htmlstory.html
[27] http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/obamacare-republicans-repeal-replace-232025
[28] https://www.washingtonpost.com/blog...efeat-of-the-new-year/?utm_term=.afeecd5619aa
[29] http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...unding-planned-parenthood-supported/73016440/
[30] http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-...esident-elect-trump-may-shake-up-trade-policy
[31] http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/12/07/what-happens-if-trump-brands-china-a-currency-manipulator/
[32] http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-...esident-elect-trump-may-shake-up-trade-policy
[33] http://www.npr.org/2016/11/10/501597652/fact-check-donald-trumps-first-100-days-action-plan
[34] https://ballotpedia.org/2016_presidential_candidates_on_DACA_and_DAPA
[35] http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/19/news/economy/sanctuary-cities-trump-funding/
[36] http://www.npr.org/2016/11/10/501597652/fact-check-donald-trumps-first-100-days-action-plan
[37] http://www.npr.org/2016/11/10/501597652/fact-check-donald-trumps-first-100-days-action-plan
[38] http://www.nbcnews.com/feature/nbc-...-would-be-devastating-lgbtq-americans-n698416
[39] http://mashable.com/2014/09/06/internet-without-net-neutrality/#L7k3ElNZFsq7
[40] http://gizmodo.com/the-grim-future-of-a-world-without-net-neutrality-1501161513
[41] http://thehill.com/policy/technology/233231-poll-finds-skepticism-on-net-neutrality
[42] http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/trump-us-embassy-jerusalem-232724
[43] https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-embassy-to-jerusalem/?utm_term=.8675e534e0f0
[44] https://assets.donaldjtrump.com/_landings/contract/O-TRU-102316-Contractv02.pdf
[45] http://cjonline.com/news/2016-11-21/kobach-took-plan-department-homeland-security-trump-meeting
[46] http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box...americans-split-on-trumps-muslim-ban-proposal
[47] Yes that’s the actual name: http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/230320-gop-floats-individual-mandate-repeal
[48] http://kff.org/health-costs/poll-finding/kaiser-health-tracking-poll-november-2016/
[49] This is based on Scenario 3: Mr. Trump Goes to Washington from Moody’s Analytics: https://www.economy.com/mark-zandi/documents/2016-06-17-Trumps-Economic-Policies.pdf
[50] http://www.factcheck.org/2016/01/obamas-numbers-january-2016-update/
Results
Methodology
This is a project to forecast the results of the 2018 Senate elections using demographics and approval data. At its most basic, I am attempting to project the voter preferences by racial group for the 2012 Senate races onto the “midterm electorate”, or the whiter set of voters that turn out for midterm elections. I would have liked to use race and education, but for whatever reasons none of the exit polls for 2012 had this specific combination with defined voter preferences. Furthermore, exit polls for the most recent midterm elections in each of these states are not entirely comprehensive, so I made do with what I had there as well.
Moreover, some of the 2012 races where characterized by Republican nominees with unusually low favorability numbers due to their comments about rape e.g. in Indiana and Missouri. Furthermore, some candidates (such as Joe Manchin) have approval numbers that differ as much as 10% from their last race. Thus, unless the likely candidates for each race both have net approval or favorability ratings within 6% of the net approval or favorability ratings for the candidates in 2012, a more comparable statewide race was found to be projected onto the midterm electorate.
If one candidate has a defined approval number within 6% of a comparable 2012 candidate (e.g. the same person or the same party’s nominee) but the other does not, the undefined candidate was assumed to have favorability similar to the equivalent 2012 candidate if said candidate is not unusually unpopular or popular (an approval rating above 3% or below -3%). If a comparable race could not be found to the one in 2012, other data was used. None of this is all that scientific per se, and this infobox series is just for entertainment (obviously). I hope you enjoy it!
Last edited:
Accurateworldwar
Banned
You're welcome. I'm not very good at making wikiboxes, so it's nice to see some really good ones.Thanks!
I have this question that I've always wanted to ask.
How come Vang, an Asian-American Dem, manages to lose Hawaii?