Russo-Ukraine war in 2015 Year

What if Russian Federation invaded Ukraine on the end of spring 2015? Which would be West reaction? Doesn't this would lead to WW3?
I've got some info about planned invasion, that was denied at this time.
UPD: dont blame me for bad English, this is not my native language.
UPD2: Also, i dont know, its counts as present-day politics?
 
What if Russian Federation invaded Ukraine on the end of spring 2015? Which would be West reaction? Doesn't this would lead to WW3?
I've got some info about planned invasion, that was denied at this time.
UPD: dont blame me for bad English, this is not my native language.
UPD2: Also, i dont know, its counts as present-day politics?

Probably not WWIII.
No Western leader wants to go down in history as the reason their country got nuked.
But if you though OTL's sanctions were bad, it will an embargo this time around.
 
Putin claimed he had nukes ready in 2014... it depends on a lot of factors if it would escalate to WWIII. But as has already been said, no one's willing to trade New York or London or Paris or Prague or wherever for Kiev.
 
There could be an escalation,
if Russia invaded Ukraine AND Baltic states, plus massive air attacks on Poland?
UPD Thanks to info leak, this plan was denied, and this never happened
 
There could be an escalation,
if Russia invaded Ukraine AND Baltic states, plus massive air attacks on Poland?
UPD Thanks to info leak, this plan was denied, and this never happened
If they attack the Baltic States then WWIII is guaranteed.
Unlike Ukraine, the Baltic States are members of NATO.
 
There would be almost no resistance in Ukraine. Ukrainian army until first half of 2016 year was trash, so...

The problem for Russia will not be the invasion, it will be the occupation. And the international reaction, especially what the US and EU nations will do. The OTL sanctions would be small potatoes in comparison to what Russia will face here.

So, in any case this invasion and what follows would get very expensive for Russia, even if it managed to initially take the entire Ukraine with minimum losses.
 
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Possible WW3 is guaranteed, bexause there was around 5k NATO soldiers on excercises. What if one of those poligons on Western Ukraine got hit by russian tactical rocket(Scud,Frog, etc) tipped with HESH or chemical wearon? 10-20 soldiers is died, what would be West reaction?
 
But if you though OTL's sanctions were bad, it will an embargo this time around.

Extremely unlikely, due to the following:

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eu_pipes.jpg
 
But the EU can easily switch to American and Middle Eastern oil if need be. Invasion of Ukraine will definitely not be tolerated.
"Easily" is a big word. It can do that, and I'm expecting the idea to be seriously considered if needed. The thing is, that's MAD - if Russia cuts oil and gas to Europe, a very large slice of its GDP evaporates in thin air (flat-out _tens_ of percentage point, IIRC). It can use that as deterrent, but if the EU goes forward anyway the Russian economy is gone. Just gone.
 
I think it would have broken any semblance of Western solidarity. Ultimately, Germany had no stomach for an extended confrontation among its citizenry (who in opinion polls are by far the most pro-Russian of all Western Powers), nor from the standard of national interest (Gazprom weighs mightily over them). Because Ukraine is not a NATO nation, collective defense would not be triggered, and the most vociferously anti-Russian nations in 2015, which were Canada and Poland, would not be able to do anything on their own, while America would likely huff and puff and sanction and do nothing.

The Russian Army probably would be able to reach Kiev in about two weeks. Any attempt to occupy land on the west side of the Dnieper River is going to run into substantially more paramilitary resistance and a protracted guerrilla war will begin, while on the Eastern side of the Dnieper, things would go a lot more smoothly with a lot more local support. The idea of NovoRossiya forming as a Russian satellite state is quite possible, with the same crypto-Communist trappings and pretensions of the two current breakaway republics in Eastern Ukraine that exist today, but of course really just acting as a puppet of Moscow.
 
But the EU can easily switch to American and Middle Eastern oil if need be

Which they've been trying to do since 2014, or at least planned to, but ended up getting more addicted to Russian energy. Even if they did seriously want to switch sources, doing so would take time and major capital investments, while Europe's economy is taking major hits in the interim; the U.S. oil shocks of the 70s are a good example of this.

Invasion of Ukraine will definitely not be tolerated.

Like Georgia wasn't in 2008? More than likely the Europeans do the same thing as they did back in '08 and cite reported actions of Ukrainian units as a reason to stay out of it, because they're aware of the energy issues and they (As well as Washington) don't want to remove Russian options because such would induce them to go to the extremes.
 

gaijin

Banned
But the EU can easily switch to American and Middle Eastern oil if need be. Invasion of Ukraine will definitely not be tolerated.

It can be done but its going to be far from easy. It's not just a problem of pumping more oil and gad(if other sources have to serious ramp up production it might be time consuming). It is also a matter of logistics.

Most of the Russian gas and lots of the oil comes via pipelines. If you switch sources you need to see if the logistical system can handle it. A few immediate problems that come to mind:
Do you have to import more relying on tankers instead of pipelines (the answer is yes especially if you switch to US or Middle Eastern oil)
Can you find enough tankers to do so in a short space of time?
Is there sufficient loading and docking facilities available where you need them?
Is the oil you are importing usable in the refineries you have?

Once again it can be done but it will not be easy and it will not be cheap and most likely it won't be fast either. The main question is can the logistic questions be solved before the EU (and global economy) collapse along with the Russian economy.


Also on a side note. The Russians were never seriously planning an invasion in Ukraine. As Drakonfin said, the invasion would be easy the occupation woukd be really hard.
If you want to get the Russians to invade you should explain what makes them decide to do this instead of going for the tried and proven method of creating a frozen conflict.
 
One of the things we were talking about back then was that the Russians would be in Kiev in two weeks, but only if the Ukrainians stood and fought. Less than seven days was possible if the only resistance encountered was coming from local paramilitaries. During the civil unrest, it was believed that a complete collapse of Ukrainian civil authority was not out of the question if the Russians invaded. In that case, the certain outcome on the right side of the Dnieper would be a Russian occupation, while the left side would either be a NATO-supported 'West Ukraine' or an outright NATO occupation. Involving the Poles or Romanians, who would have large force relatively close, would certainly bring up some interesting political questions.
 

Manman

Banned
Europe would panic, introduce sanctions and then vite the people that did that and make peace with Russia. In the end morality doesn't matter if the economy is at steak and with the entire European continent experiencing an oil shock you can bet that they will throw the ukranians under the bus in the hope of not having a new depression.

If they do continue than expect depression 2.0 and mass leaving of the EU and even balkanization in their future.
 
Well, if Russia only invaded Ukraine, I could see it turning nasty at some point.

While the occupation would be difficult enough, and assuming it had somehow managed to supress resistance, it could still spark some kind of WW3. Before the Russian army even marched on Kiev, the eastern states of NATO would become extremely jittery. Poland would not want an occupied Russia on its border and while a forward march into Poland would be unlikely, I think NATO's millitary capacity would be on high alert. As a previous poster mentioned, any NATO soldiers training in Ukraine could easily be caught up in the conflict-then what? Likely response would be the direct arming of Ukrainian insurrectionists, which would probably lead to Russian attacks on NATO supply lines. Accidental or "Accidental" strikes on NATO personel in Ukraine would probably continue, as well as surgical SAS strikes on high profile Russian millitary personel in Ukraine.

I think overtime, Russia's plan would be to ware down the nearby baltics with pro-Russian propaganda. Probably painting a picture of Russian occupied Ukraine being some sort of a safe haven. NATO would be expecting this of course, so with tensions running so high on both sides, I think there would be a general build up to some kind of conflict between NATO and Russia. Possibly a sudden massive air onslaught or a jittery Royal Navy in the North Sea launching attacks on a nearby Russian ship. Russian planes "buzzing" US ships would almost certainly see them being shot down.

It depends on how Germany would respond to a Russian invasion of Ukraine. In the book "War with Russia" NATO almost collapsed because the Germans found it difficult to abandon their pascifist stance. If it seems there was ongoing division in NATO and the EU regarding a response to Russia, it could provoke Russia to be more boistrious and aggressive if they believe they would be limited NATO resistance. Besides, as soon as it seems there is a whiff of imminent confrontation between Russia and the West, what would happen to the global economy? Surely gold prices will go through the roof in anticpation of a possible breakdown in oil infrastructre in Europe. If Polish and Baltic citizens become too jittery and begin moving away from the eastern borders, near possible Russian invasion areas, how would that affect their economies? And the eurozone economy as a whole? A growing economic crisis because of East-West tension could lead to public dissident, fertile ground pro-Russian propaganda.

In any case, NATO could respond by ramping up attacks against the Assad Government in Syria to destablise Russia's shpere of influence. If NATO could create another headache for Russia in Syria while they were dealing with Ukraine, it could overstretch Russia's millitary capacity. I think that indirectly, a Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2015 would eventually escalate into a short but nasty World War 3.
 
It depends on how they invaded... if they continued the covert way(which is most probable), the invasion wouldnt fit the conventional mold of aggression. The russians would likely stir the pot and support maidan and anti-maidan protests, meanwhile they assassinate as many pro-eu politicians as possible. The actual invasion would consist of local criminal elements overthrowing regional governments and LGMs moving in afterwards. After maybe 6 months or a year you would see Russian forces occupying everything east of dniepr and Odessa...and two competing Ukrainian governments.

NATO would supply the pro-eu government with weapons to try and bleed the russians dry. Close encounters with jets would result in russian jets being shotdown, cyber attacks would disrupt the internet for billions and cause blackouts in america, europe, and russia.

Sanctions would ramp up and the EU would gradually switch from russian to oil to alternative sources, i believe this would be possible within a year or two. Ofc gas prices would sky rocket but the EU has relatively good public transport and would absorb the shock better than america imo. Shale companies, OPEC, and electric car companies would see a massive rise in profits.

By 2017, russia would be in economic freefall and may lash out japan style by supporting kurdish and shiite insurgency in the ME...along with supplying the taliban in both afghanistan and pakistan.
 
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