Russo Japanese War

Lets say that the Japanese were less successful in the initiate stages of the war and their fleet could not get a decisive advantage. Later when the second squadron arrived from Europe the Russians win a big battle and the Japanese navy loses control of the seas. After that the Japanese army is beaten little by little.

What would have been the initiate and near future consequences of an victorious Russia in the Russo-Japanese War?

Thanks for the help.
 
The most obvious outcome is that the Russians are going to control Korea and drive any Japanese influence out of Manchuria. Beyond that the Japanese are going to sit on their islands and wait to return the favour, probably during the Russian Civil War.
 
The most obvious outcome is that the Russians are going to control Korea and drive any Japanese influence out of Manchuria. Beyond that the Japanese are going to sit on their islands and wait to return the favour, probably during the Russian Civil War.

A Russian Victory may very well butterfly away the Russian Civil War. One of the main things that drove hatred of the Czar to the forefront was the defeat at the hands of Japan.
 
Russian victory in 1905 (not that unreasonable with a slightly different set of leadership decisions) could not only butterfly away the RCW, but even WW1; Russia would keep its Baltic Navy, and retain apperance of strength, something the Germans would have to consider before throwing the dice in 1914. Maybe the assassination in Sarajevo would be more like the Morocco crisis.
 
It would butterfly away the Russian Civil War, but a Russian Civil War is still likely to occur. The 1905 revolution is going to happen, Russians coming into The First World War may still happen (Not because of a desire to restore prestige, but riding high off of a victory, plus the regular delusions of grandeur and balance of power). There are still huge social problems that a victory in the East won't wipe out, and may even be exaggerated (since troops able to be put into putting down the 1905 Revolution, there will be less pressure to accede to the demands of the revolutionaries).

People will still be poor, they'll still be hungry, education and infrastructure will still be broken, the aristocracy will still wield unchecked power, and the international situation will still be bleak because in spite of the victory Russia doesn't have their stuff together enough to be taken seriously anywhere West of the Urals.

As for the Navy... Well, it surviving would cause its own problems. The navy was pretty badly outdated, and the Russians would be better off scraping it and building new ships. IRL it was the buildup after the Russo-Japanese war that worried the British naval planers, not the fleet before. The loss of the sailors was... Well, it was unfortunate, but considering their performance they weren't irreplaceable either. The only thing really worth keeping from the 1904 Russian Navy was the officers.

I don't like being so hard on them, I think there's a lot of potential at this point, but Manchuria and Korea don't really get Russia anything. What they really need is governmental reform, and I don't know how they'd get that.
 
Russian victory in 1905 (not that unreasonable with a slightly different set of leadership decisions) could not only butterfly away the RCW, but even WW1; Russia would keep its Baltic Navy, and retain apperance of strength, something the Germans would have to consider before throwing the dice in 1914. Maybe the assassination in Sarajevo would be more like the Morocco crisis.
It won't butterfly away WW1. In fact if anything it makes it more likely. The reason why Austro-Hungary did not attack Serbia straightaway after the assassination of the Arch Duke was that they were worried that the Russians would attack them in support of the Serbs. Thus they allowed the situation to develop until that became a certainty. At this point the Germans and French were also in effect involved.

A stronger Russia is thus going to increase Austro-Hungary's fears and thus the follow the OTL path to war. It should also be noticed (and I am not trying to be racist here) but the defeat of Japan by the Russians would not be regarded by her allies and enemies as a proper victory because the Japanese were not European. The same would apply if the Russians were to defeat the Turks.
 
There is a TL about this: It is called "Not by a mine".

Thanks for the plug Markus :). Anyone wanting to check it out can follow the link. Updates have been a bit slow lately, but I've been busy organising my move to Singapore the last couple of weeks, but there will be a new post soon.
I was just checking this out if it was a TL, as it can be interesting to see how other people do PODs that are similar to your own TL.
 
There's quite a lot to consider here

-1- Austria may well not annex Bosnia-Hercegovina if Russia has the appearance of being strong and victorious

-2- Russia is unlikely to suffer any large revolution when it is winning the war, the origins of the 1905 troubles were the defeats, the losses, and the perceived wasting of lives and consequent weakness of the regime

-3- Japan is going to be broke and defeated and a military regime is a quite likely occurrence

-4- Russia continuing its economic partnership with China may well prevent the collapse of imperial authority and the outbreak of civil war. Especially if China signs some sort of security codicil whereby Russia would intervene to help, which would certainly give Yuan pause for thought

-5- The Korean monarchy may well survive, though perhaps on a par with Khiva and Bokhara as protectorates within the Russian Empire over time.

-6- The Russian battleships WILL be replaced with first-class units simply by the passage of years. The dead-end of the intermediates (Andrei Pervoswani) would be avoided.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
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