Russo-Japanese War, Russia victorius

Onyx

Banned
Suppose Russia manages to defeat Japan and is still a Major Power in the Far East, Russia could've occupied Manchuria and the Northern Islands of Japan.
But would the Russian Revolution happen anyway even though Russia won? Would the Japanese re-think of what happened during the war,also could it affect WWI, IMO, it was probably the last war before WWI happened.
 
The defeat of the Russian forces in 1905 directly led to the blip on the radar in late 1905. I think due to the numerous elements that revolution was going to happen regardless. However a victory could delay that revolution much much later, by perhaps seeing a stronger Russian appearance in WW1.
 

Germaniac

Donor
Well, Russia is in a precarious situation but had every chance to win. For even a chance of success the Russians NEED to stop the Japanese First Army from marching up through Korea. First Stepan Makarov NEEDS TO SURVIVE. That man is the only competent commander of naval operations in Russia. The Russians will need to change their perspective on naval operations as well. They will need to constantly harrass the Japanese navy and her supply and communication lines.

Another key, Russia needs to concentrate her entire naval force in Port Arthur. While taking more damage in the begining, the concentration of Russian ships will force the Japanese to reconsider such a swift move into korea.

You must realize that Japans forces were better trained, better equiped, and was numerically superior (for the time being). The Russians could simply not hold back the Japanese.

So, the key is cutting Japanese Supply lines. The Japanese wont make any moves against Korea if it feels threatened, Japan vastly overestimates Russian power in the region. Russia must then sit and wait. Allow the Japanese to waste her manpower resources in human wave attacks, and slowly reinforce her positions while Makarov hits and runs in the pacific. The Japanese Navy wont have te ability to sting the Russians in a Massive sea battle destroying the entire fleet if there all never in one place.

By 1905 the Japanese public will be clamoring for a peaceful end to the war, the Japanese Navy will be in the gutter, and Russia will have a huge army presense in Manchuria

Now onto the after effects. This war has HUGE EFFECTS on how WW1 will be fought. A) The Human wave style of attack will be seen as a failure and trench warfare (which will likely still develop) will have to fought in a different way. B) German Naval stratigests will see the Naval war as a model to attack the much larger Royal Navy (which likely would not adopt a new non-linear battle line) C) Russia will have no reason to make peace with GB about central asia as their own position is less tenuois. D) The Russians Will not reform their military as much as in post war OTL. They will remain decades behind western powers. E) Manchuria likely annexed into Russia soon after, Manchu falls and China erupts into Civil War. F) Japan does not emerge as the Major Pacific Power, Russia Does

As for the Revolution. Its still coming. However it will be vastly different. I see a much less radical form, and a constitutional russian monarchy on its way.
 
acctually, there's a very good timeline here by Tukk323 on this topic. here: Not By a Mine

Intrestingly in this version Russia winning the Russo-Japan war creates an Independent Korea with close ties to Japan, and seems to speed up the Red Revolution.
 
You could easily have a late war victory. By the time of the armistice, the Japanese swarm tactics had badly depleted their numbers while the Russians were just bringing their massive numbers to bear (no pun intended). Had the war gone on another year you'd likely see a major reversal on the land, navy or no navy. The Russian mass could eventually (assuming no outside intervention) push the Japanese out of Manchuria or even out of Korea.
 
C) Russia will have no reason to make peace with GB about central asia as their own position is less tenuois. D) The Russians Will not reform their military as much as in post war OTL. They will remain decades behind western powers.

Those two have major repercussions. Without finding more common ground with Russia is the UK going to be as unwilling (or willing depending on the year really) to attempt some type of alliance with Germany? Germany's Fleet acts were only just starting to antagonize Britain. Would a resurgence Russia threatening the Crown Jewel of the Empire cause the Brits to rethink their relationship with Germany. A lot of talk went on in the early years of that first decade of the century OTL. How will France behave if Russia and the UK still can't or haven’t come to some kind of agreement over the 'Great Game' ventures in Persia and India regions?

As for point D: Didn't the Russians and French initiate programs that grossly enlarged their infantry numbers because of the reforms of OTL causing the Germans to do the same? The German leadership by 1914 was absolutely paranoid of encirclement and losing their military superiority to the Frogs and Ivans. If those reforms don't happen do we see a German military less prone to spring into a 'now or never' type mentality.
 
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