Well, Russia is in a precarious situation but had every chance to win. For even a chance of success the Russians NEED to stop the Japanese First Army from marching up through Korea. First Stepan Makarov NEEDS TO SURVIVE. That man is the only competent commander of naval operations in Russia. The Russians will need to change their perspective on naval operations as well. They will need to constantly harrass the Japanese navy and her supply and communication lines.
Another key, Russia needs to concentrate her entire naval force in Port Arthur. While taking more damage in the begining, the concentration of Russian ships will force the Japanese to reconsider such a swift move into korea.
You must realize that Japans forces were better trained, better equiped, and was numerically superior (for the time being). The Russians could simply not hold back the Japanese.
So, the key is cutting Japanese Supply lines. The Japanese wont make any moves against Korea if it feels threatened, Japan vastly overestimates Russian power in the region. Russia must then sit and wait. Allow the Japanese to waste her manpower resources in human wave attacks, and slowly reinforce her positions while Makarov hits and runs in the pacific. The Japanese Navy wont have te ability to sting the Russians in a Massive sea battle destroying the entire fleet if there all never in one place.
By 1905 the Japanese public will be clamoring for a peaceful end to the war, the Japanese Navy will be in the gutter, and Russia will have a huge army presense in Manchuria
Now onto the after effects. This war has HUGE EFFECTS on how WW1 will be fought. A) The Human wave style of attack will be seen as a failure and trench warfare (which will likely still develop) will have to fought in a different way. B) German Naval stratigests will see the Naval war as a model to attack the much larger Royal Navy (which likely would not adopt a new non-linear battle line) C) Russia will have no reason to make peace with GB about central asia as their own position is less tenuois. D) The Russians Will not reform their military as much as in post war OTL. They will remain decades behind western powers. E) Manchuria likely annexed into Russia soon after, Manchu falls and China erupts into Civil War. F) Japan does not emerge as the Major Pacific Power, Russia Does
As for the Revolution. Its still coming. However it will be vastly different. I see a much less radical form, and a constitutional russian monarchy on its way.