Russo-Japanese war, round two?

HMS Erin

Banned
Why did the Japanese not take the opportunity to drive the Russians out of the East decisively during the Siberian Intervention? Fifteen years earlier, the Japanese won a decisive victory, why did they not press their advantage and conquer/establish client states in Siberia? As far as I can tell, they had almost every advantage. Japan had sat out WWI, and Russia had gotten some of the worst of it. Russia was undergoing a civil war, Japan had international backing during the intervention (at least early on) and there were some viable White Russian leaders that could be established as puppets.

So what went wrong for the Japanese? Could they change that?
 

sharlin

Banned
Whilst the Japanese did everything right, they were bankrupt at the end of the Russo/Japanese war and the Russians were sending a metric feckton of troops that would have won through good old fashioned numbers.

The peace came at a time when it was needed, even though they had won everywhere, they were skint and global opinion was starting to turn against them.

Even later, why would they go into Siberia? at the time, there was nothing there. Apart from Vladivostok. And thats it. Remeber its only recently that the natural resources bounty's become more well known.
 

HMS Erin

Banned
Well essencially because it came around to bite them in the butt during WWII, didn't it? Even if they just hang onto Vladivostok, it will obviously make a big difference down the line.
 

Cook

Banned
Even later, why would they go into Siberia? at the time, there was nothing there. Apart from Vladivostok. And thats it. Remeber its only recently that the natural resources bounty's become more well known.
The point is that the Japanese did go into Siberia in 1918 and remained there until 1922, two years after the other intervening powers withdrew. Having a comfortable buffer space between Japan and the Bolsheviks provides a great deal of motivation.
 
The point is that the Japanese did go into Siberia in 1918 and remained there until 1922, two years after the other intervening powers withdrew. Having a comfortable buffer space between Japan and the Bolsheviks provides a great deal of motivation.

It's not really buffer space if you need to defend it yourself though is it?
 
It is; it’s a large piece of empty ground that puts a lot of distance between the Bolsheviks and the home islands of Japan.

Grabbing the rest of Sakhalin would make more sense in that case. Having to defend a large piece of empty ground against an enemy that wants it back badly is going to be a headache at best and not sustainable in the long term. It's not like the Soviets had naval superiority over the Japanese until late 1945 anyway, and that was more a case of Japan losing it's navy rather than the Soviets investing in one. It's probably best to keep your powerful navy and not annoy the enemy into building one of his own.
 
Well essencially because it came around to bite them in the butt during WWII, didn't it? Even if they just hang onto Vladivostok, it will obviously make a big difference down the line.
Will it though? There was already the undeclared Soviet-Japanese border conflicts/war in 1938-1939 and they got absolutely thrashed at the Battle of Khalkhin Gol. Would owning Vladivostok and some of the surrounding Siberia make that much of a difference in a similar conflict?
 
1) Public opinion was still much more able to assert pressure, and civilian leaders were less beholden to the armed forces, than in the East Asia war. The Japanese people didn't particularly want to get stuck in a fight for Sibiria.

2) The forces available were not all that different: both were infantry armies with a comparatively limited industrial base behind them.

3) Those White puppets made themselves really unpopular with the locals, mainly in Transbaikal, where the fighting would presumably have taken place. Thanks to the large population of miners and political prisoners, there was an active pro-Red partisan movement, which is an even bigger problem when you have precarious lines of supply. The Whites also behaved like cats in a bag among themselves.

4) The other powers were not necessarily thrilled by Japanese adventuring.
 
Perphaps an OTL where instead of a Great War, we instead get a series of small wars or conflicts that don't link in, including the following:

1. More Balkan Wars Pt ??
2. Russian-Japanese War Pt2
3. Ottomans distracted by various Arab issues and Italy
4. An AH with low level disorder and adventurism in the Balkans
5. Germany and France having several scares but no war
6. Britain distracted by Ireland and various colonial issues
7. Italy mucks about further in Libya etc
 
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