Russo-Japanese War: Best/Worst Case Scenarios?

[ZachScape]

I usually hop around from one historical event to the next, but this question has been on my mind for a while now:

How much land could Japan get in the Russo-Japanese War, by anyway possible?

Here is the actual Treaty of Portsmouth:

In accordance with the treaty, both Japan and Russia agreed to evacuate Manchuria and return its sovereignty to China, but Japan was leased the Liaodong Peninsula (containing Port Arthur and Talien), and the Russian rail system in southern Manchuria with access to strategic resources. Japan also received the southern half of the Island of Sakhalin from Russia. Although Japan gained a great deal from the treaty, it was not nearly as much as the Japanese public had been led to expect, since Japan's initial negotiating position had demanded all of Sakhalin and a monetary indemnity as well. The frustration caused the Hibiya riots, and collapsed Katsura Taro's cabinet on January 7, 1906.

The primary objective of this thread is to determine just how much the Japanese could win.

One possibility is Outer Manchuria. But would it be all of it like this?:


Or less? How much less?
How much money can they win?

The secondary objective would be to determine just how much the Russians could win. But I doubt the thread will come far enouph for this to be answered.

 

[RGB]

Well, Russia would have (at most, probably) have kept the concession ports, demanded free hand over Korea, and demanded dismantlement of the Japanese navy.

They weren't really going to touch the Home Islands.

What Japan wanted is a bigger question.

 

[Grey Wolf]

I can't see how Japan can conquer much more on land - it was a Hell of a hard slog (Mukden, Harbin etc) and the Russian defence got its act together in the end.

The main difference is in keeping this, rather than handing it back to China

The Russian negotiators came away from Portsmouth surprised at how little they had lost, IRRC, which was in its way a triumph for TR. Get some other country to host the peace, or do it directly, and Japan may increase their demands and get them at the moment that Russia is at its weakest (internal revolution)

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[Mark AH]

It would be very hard for Japan to get more land from Russia during the Russo-Japanese War, so the only approach is to alternate the The Treaty of Portsmouth.

There is one area that could be take hold of at that moment and that is Manchuria. What if there was agreed that Russia would have give their share back to China, but Japan would hold their part?

Would China have accepted that?

 

[Will Lucky]

Worst Case Scenerio? Russia holds out a couple more months as this would surely force Japan to the negotiating table.

Best Case Scenario? Somehow cause the 1905 Revolution to be more severe on the Russian Empire.

 

[ZachScape]

Thank you all. I will look into several factors you brought up.

Chinese View, including the Sino-Japanese War
1905 Revolution

Also I read that the Trans-Siberian Railroad was a great factor. Could the Japanese Sabotage the project, delaying invaluable resources and reinforcements from aiding their comrades?

EDIT: W/o Triple Intervention, Russia wouldn't be able to go to port Arthur. So they would have ~10 years away from the eastern part of the railroad. Also, Japan could concentrate more towards Russian mainland.