This may have already been discussed and if such, I apologize. Was again reading The Guns of August, and was struck how the author Barbara Tuchman argued Russia's loss to the Japanese at the Battle of Tsu-Shima destabilized the balance of power in Europe, emboldened the Central Powers, contributing to the decision to go to war in August, 1914. This battle was considered by many to be the most decisive naval battle of the 20th Century and was the last time a fleet surrended on the high seas to its adversary. This surrender more than just the defeat provided the necessary impetus to the Decembrists and began the naval arms race between England and Germany with the launching of the HMS Dreadnaught in October, 1905, and the infamous Schlieffen Plan.
To me it begs the question; If Imperial Russia managed to pull a miracle out of this debacle or at least managed to save face, would this have managed to eliminate or stave off August, 1914, and the Great War? Previous to the Russo-Japanese war, the powers of Europe and America had gotten together to aid the Chinese Emperior to crush the Boxer Rebellion as recently as 1900. Was the Battle of Tsu-Tshima the canary in the coalmine to WWI, merely a symptom of what was inevitable, or the impetus to the drive to war that Europe found itself unable to pull itself out of?
To me it begs the question; If Imperial Russia managed to pull a miracle out of this debacle or at least managed to save face, would this have managed to eliminate or stave off August, 1914, and the Great War? Previous to the Russo-Japanese war, the powers of Europe and America had gotten together to aid the Chinese Emperior to crush the Boxer Rebellion as recently as 1900. Was the Battle of Tsu-Tshima the canary in the coalmine to WWI, merely a symptom of what was inevitable, or the impetus to the drive to war that Europe found itself unable to pull itself out of?