What if Russia and Japan had partitioned Manchuria between themselves between 1905 and 1914?
Japan gets Liaoning and Yanbian, Russia gets Jilin and Heilongjiang.
Japan gets Liaoning and Yanbian, Russia gets Jilin and Heilongjiang.
I think this is what could have happened BEFORE the War of 1904, had the Russians had the foresight to see that they were overstretched in the Far East.
This could change a lot potentially, though the overall strategic motivations of the major actor will stay the same. Japan's attitude towards its foreign policy will be much more concerned with containing Western colonial influence in China and it's possible that they would work better with the Chinese authorities for this reason. Likewise the Chinese might see the Russians, not Japanese, as the primary invaders.
What if Russia and Japan had partitioned Manchuria between themselves between 1905 and 1914?
Japan gets Liaoning and Yanbian, Russia gets Jilin and Heilongjiang.
I agree this would be an interesting interesting tweak. Going one step further, what if instead of an Anglo-Japanese agreement, there was to be a Russo-Japanese agreement? Both would be well placed to hold hands and calve up China between themselves.I think this is what could have happened BEFORE the War of 1904, had the Russians had the foresight to see that they were overstretched in the Far East.
This could change a lot potentially, though the overall strategic motivations of the major actor will stay the same. Japan's attitude towards its foreign policy will be much more concerned with containing Western colonial influence in China and it's possible that they would work better with the Chinese authorities for this reason. Likewise the Chinese might see the Russians, not Japanese, as the primary invaders.
Agreed.Good and interesting point, but I wonder what could have gotten the Russians to see reason and understand Japan could be dangerous if crossed.
Actually, I think the Japanese at points before 1905 were willing to cede Russia an even better deal than partial control of Manchuria. I think the Japanese were willing to cede all Manchuria as a sphere of influence if the Russians recognized Japan's dominion over all Korea. And if there's no war, there's no chance of Russia losing South Sakhalin.
Not really. China was a far more significant market and it was totally dominated by the British. Britain would be the seriously aggrieved party of any Russo-Japanese alignment, but after decades of isolationism and being entangled in Southern Africa, there is not much Britain could do to stop it.They did, in terms of de facto spheres of influence. If you want formal protectorates, puppet states or annexations, I think the two powers could get away with it throughout the era the OP suggested, 1905 through 1914. Russia was far more important to France than China was and Japan was more important to Britain than China was. Theodore Roosevelt was unsentimental about China and would not have thought it would have been worth it for the U.S.to have a fuss with the more advanced Russia or Japan over "backward and weak" China. If Germany objected, she could not make any of her objections stick.