Russo-Indian invasion of Pakistan in 1985

destiple

Banned
With the KSA/Pakistan and CIA supporting the afghan terrorists, and the ISI supporting the sikh terrorists in the 80s.Esp after Indira Gandhi assasination things come to a head,it would have been only natural for the Indians and soviets to take joint action against pakistan.


Forces involved
Pak army- infantry heavy army with outdated T-59 chinease tanks, mostly towed artillery and no SSMs.Hatf 1 the locally made rocket did not have any combat capability.
Pak airforce- F-16 only modern planes, only 30+ available no BVR weapons other planes mostly older mirages and chinese F-6/A-5
Pak Navy -dwarfed by indian navy, 2 major ports within reach of indian naval forces

Soviets would likely use their mountain divisions and airborne divisions for the assault and once they secure the mountain passes use heavier units.Their major objective would be to destroy the madrassas and the pak military establishment in NWFP.The locals chiefs have never been entirely happy with the punjabi dominated pak army in the region if the soviets bribe the right leaders and do not push the socialistic agenda then they can get some genuine support amongst the locals against pak army.Plus the balochis ( another ethnic minority ) just recently rebelled against pak army in 70s allegedly with soviet help.
Indians have already had experience in fighting in kashmir for decades with aircover and pak army distracted by the soviets they would have no problem in securing the rest of kashmir and gain a strategic advantageous position in Punjab.Indian navy could easily blockade karachi and stop whatever help pakistan may get from its arab friends.

Allies- Many in the Arab world, but a lot of them also dependent on soviet help like libya, KSA and UAE would be expected to offer the most help

regional allies China, how much it will do to actively help pakistanis is questionable

Iran after revolution is ice cold towards islamabad

Objectives of indians/soviets
Indians : to occupy the pak administered kashmir and strategic areas that control flow of arms/cash to kashmiris and sikhs
Soviets to do the same in the frontier province of pakistan formerly known as NWFP.

They do have local allies, late ZA Bhutto's son Murtaza runs a terrorist outfit determined to overthrow Zia and is at odds with the military establishment.
Pushtoon nationalist elements have a chance of a life time to have one state on both sides of the khyber pass even if that means taking orders from Kabul

pak nukes are of tactical value only, ? how many in 1985 ! Can be delivered only by aircraft and no major soviet cities within range.If the soviet/indian forces stay out of the major population centers of punjab/sindh there would be no reason why the pak generals would feel forced to use the nukes.And if they do the allies would have the perfect excuse to totally obliterate pakistani military and economic capability
 
With the KSA/Pakistan and CIA supporting the afghan terrorists, and the ISI supporting the sikh terrorists in the 80s.Esp after Indira Gandhi assasination things come to a head,it would have been only natural for the Indians and soviets to take joint action against pakistan.



pak nukes are of tactical value only, ? how many in 1985 ! Can be delivered only by aircraft and no major soviet cities within range.If the soviet/indian forces stay out of the major population centers of punjab/sindh there would be no reason why the pak generals would feel forced to use the nukes.And if they do the allies would have the perfect excuse to totally obliterate pakistani military and economic capability

Pakistan got nukes in like 1998, others think the 80's .. but nukes flying would be a very dangerous thing for any and all.

an invasion of Pakistan would probably help to draw the US into the conflict and even Iran would be uneasy with this, as they were not best buddies with the soviets, and obviously not great friends with the USA, however Afghanistan, then Pakistan? Iran and Iraq are at war, Lebanon, Syria.. Israel .. Would probably cause the entire region to implode
 

destiple

Banned
even if pak has nukes in 1985 , how and where will they deliver it ?
F-16s or mirages ? very easily intercepted, they have no missiles of any decent range then
plus where ? at the advancing soviet troops in pashtun areas ? that will cause pashtuns to never forgive the punjabis
plus backlash the soviets can lob a few SCUDs with tactical nukes and its game over for pakistan military

what can the US do ? send the marines to Karachi ? and risk direct conflict with USSR and probably in Europe ? will european leaders agree with this ?

soviets are just occupying the pashtun areas of pakistan and part of balochistan not crossing the indus and remember the nationalists amongst the baloch and pashtun will have some degree of support esp if soviets stay away from their land reforms
and indians will likely only take azad kashmir and no try to dismember pakistan
 
At most the Soviets might try to attack some training camps, but attacking Pakistan without a casus belli would be a stupid idea.
 

destiple

Banned
bluff ! and I'm sure the soviets can withstand one or two tactical nuclear devices and then pakistanis will have hell to pay
 
perfect one could be assasination of a senior soviet or afghan miliatry leader by mujahideen

It might make USSR-Pakistan relations frostier, and maybe the Soviets might fund separatists and anti-Zia parties in return, and maybe commit airstrikes on training camps in Pakistan, but an all-out invasion won't work. At most the USSR might tell India "come on, invade" and then it will be India's decision. Pakistan is mountainous, has nukes, has good ties with the Islamic world, the US and China, and the entire population will be united against a Soviet invasion, even the Pakistani communists might fight against the Soviets. India joining in will depend on how well the Soviets do in Pakistan, and seeing as how the Soviets won't do well, India might decide it's not worth it and go back to fighting their own separatists.

A casus belli might be that Pakistanis get so angry at the Soviets they storm the Soviet embassy and kill everyone in it, but then the question must be asked on what the Soviets have done to make Pakistanis so angry.
 
At most the Soviets might try to attack some training camps, but attacking Pakistan without a casus belli would be a stupid idea.
Yep... Unless there was a significant provocation I just don't see the U.S. in 1985 accepting a Soviet invasion of Pakistan.
 

mad orc

Banned
Kick
Pakistan is a failed state governed by the interests of terrorist radicals.
The whole region would have been peaceful had it been real.
 

destiple

Banned
Pakistan is mountainous, has nukes, has good ties with the Islamic world, the US and China, and the entire population will be united against a Soviet invasion
again , the soviets do not have to invade and occupy large parts of pakistan
They need an invasion to sufficently degrade the military capacity of pak army and scare them so that it does not interfere with their operations in afghanistan
remember in 70s pakistan waged a brutal counter insurgency in balochistan, they will revel at the chance of a payback esp if soviets promise them a seperate state


they might have good relations with arab gulf states but other than pouring money into pakistan to shore up their economy i see no military benefit
India joining in will depend on how well the Soviets do in Pakistan, and seeing as how the Soviets won't do well, India might decide it's not worth it and go back to fighting their own separatists.
there was no insurgency in kashmir in 1985 worth mentioning , and sikh revolt had petered off too
 

destiple

Banned
Pakistan is a failed state governed by the interests of terrorist radicals.
The whole region would have been peaceful had it been real.
no i disagree , pakistan is governed by a mafia of landlords , army generals and industrialists
these people see religious radicals as useful idiots
Pakistan will not disappear as a result of this invasion but the destruction of most of their armored divisions and airforce plus most major industries pounded by air attacks will have a sobering effect
 

destiple

Banned
Or the Islamic world. Expect a second oil embargo, this time directed at the USSR.
how vulnerable was USSR to middle east oil ? and why was this not done after the afghan invasion


What will china do ? maybe soviets will bomb and destroy the karkoram highway between pakistan and china ?

and indian navy ( whichh devasted karachi port in 1971) will blockade any supplies coming from gulf states

biggest question is if and how much the US will get involved ?
esp with the tension situation in Europe

Is Pakistan worth incinerating the whole of western Europe ?
 
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again , the soviets do not have to invade and occupy large parts of pakistan
They need an invasion to sufficently degrade the military capacity of pak army and scare them so that it does not interfere with their operations in afghanistan
remember in 70s pakistan waged a brutal counter insurgency in balochistan, they will revel at the chance of a payback esp if soviets promise them a seperate state

Yes, that might be the case, and again - bombing of training camps in Pakistan, support of separatists and anti-Zia groups along with telling India to invade or at least do some action might be what the Soviets have to do to get that kind of result, and much more plausible. If the Soviets get really angry you probably get them commit raids on Pakistani nuclear facilities like what Israel did to Iraq, but those were heavily guarded and Israel had already planned to do so to Pakistan but it was leaked which led to the heavy security.

there was no insurgency in kashmir in 1985 worth mentioning , and sikh revolt had petered off too

Sikh revolt ended in early 1990s, this scenario states that the USSR invades Pakistan in mid 1980s, when it is at its peak.

Pakistan is a failed state governed by the interests of terrorist radicals.
The whole region would have been peaceful had it been real.

Even the first part is true (which it isn't) the second part is downright ASB. Pakistan probably didn't have more than 10 nuclear weapons in the mid 1980s, so any strikes they do on the USSR and India would not lead them to totally collapse but it would had led to even more instability and possibly an earlier end of the Soviet Union. India had a lot of insurgencies in the 1980s so a nuclear strike might lead to civil war or something close. The Soviets and Indians would definitely retaliate, leading to a refugee crisis, more Islamic radicalism in the area, and the region would pretty much be chaotic for most of that time. By the 21st century the subcontinent is as developed as some of the better places of Central Africa, with as much of the instability.
 

destiple

Banned
Yes, that might be the case, and again - bombing of training camps in Pakistan, support of separatists and anti-Zia groups along with telling India to invade or at least do some action might be what the Soviets have to do to get that kind of result, and much more plausible. If the Soviets get really angry you probably get them commit raids on Pakistani nuclear facilities like what Israel did to Iraq, but those were heavily guarded and Israel had already planned to do so to Pakistan but it was leaked which led to the heavy security.
good idea , how about before a land invsion , the soviets launch 500 + sorties esp with aircraft of strategic aviation against targets in rawalpindi, and attack the pak army corps stationed in quetta and around peshawar
How well can PAF counter such attacks in 1985 ?
 
good idea , how about before a land invsion , the soviets launch 500 + sorties esp with aircraft of strategic aviation against targets in rawalpindi, and attack the pak army corps stationed in quetta and around peshawar
How well can PAF counter such attacks in 1985 ?

Pakistan Army might place anti-aircraft missiles in potential Soviet targets, shooting down some Soviet planes.
 
If the USSR becomes actively/visibly involved, the risk of the USA becoming directly involved skyrockets - a very bad thing.
 

destiple

Banned
Pakistan Army might place anti-aircraft missiles in potential Soviet targets, shooting down some Soviet planes.
They did not have many SAM to make a big difference , the mirages and F-6 will shot down quite a few soviet attackers but will likely suffer heavy losses too esp if soviets stick to high level attacks where Fizaiyah was particularly vulnerable.Also probably will get a barrage of SCUDs at their Army corp HQ.The soviet attack helicopters will probably make life hell for their mechanized divisions
 
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