Russo-indian invasion and Balkanization of Paksitan

Conditions were, in 1973, actually fairly stable, far better than in 1983. A move like this from the Soviets in 1983 would bring U.S. & Soviet forces into direct combat. The chances of that ending in anything short of a nuclear exchange are vanishingly small.

These may not be facts that help this scenario, but that doesn't invalidate them as facts.

This scenario winds up very badly.


There is still a small chance

The scenario isnt what you would call likely, but it is plausible (just barely) and you have to admit would be an intresting read if written well

If it is plausible its more important to be intresting than likely (IMO)
 
The chances of this happening are near zero. The USSR is not going invade Pakistan with RR in office. They were worried that he would start WWIII at any excuse and now they are going to just hand him that excuse? Even if you get rid of Reagan the US government is going to notice the preperations for the invasion long before either the USSR or India is ready. Once that happens they send the 101st airborne and start moving armor divisions or at the very least brigades to Pakistan. Meanwhile 2 or 3 Nimitz class carriers are sent to the region adding a LOT of firepower. The Soviets aren't going to invade anywhere there are a lot of US troops.
 
Please read OP, its a limited invasion and there is no grab of the arabian seaports
You're missing the fact that the USA has no idea that the Soviets plan this and will assume the worst and disregard any claims to the contrary.
 

Ak-84

Banned
The Pakistanis don't need any major weapons to stop the Soviets. The only route the Soviets face is through the Bolan and Khyber passes, each of which ar the worst terrain on the planet and also incidentally manned by a corps plus of troop........each, professional, trained and motivated troops. Air strikes in such terrain as experience has shown time and time again, are ineffective at high altitudes and suicidal at lower.

The only real weapons Pakistanis need are what they have plenty of and can be resupplied with easily, Arty,ATGMs and MANPADS.

Either way lots of Soviets are going to die. They have 2 options if they wish to attack. 1) move, cat 1 divs in E Germany. Thus is the only way they ar going to be able to break through the passes eventually. However this mo ement is going to be responded by US troops coming to Pakistan well before the Sovs are even ready. Now they face a war with the US. Option 2) maximum surprise, just employ troops in theater. That's about 8 divisions, in both Afghaistan and Tajikistan. To give you some idea, Cezchoslovakia in 1968 took 350000 troops in 50 divisions, and that was a much much much easier campaign then any in Pakistan promises to be. So the attack fails, and the Soviets have twi choices, either reinforce and face the Americans who are by nkw arriving or back down and admit they lost ro a third world country.


The sovs knows the above , which is why they did not do it.
 

Cook

Banned
The scenario isnt what you would call likely, but it is plausible (just barely) and you have to admit would be an intresting read if written well
Cal and I are not disputing that. What we are disputing is the suggestion that the US and NATO would not involve themselves in this.
 

nastle

Banned
The Pakistanis don't need any major weapons to stop the Soviets. The only route the Soviets face is through the Bolan and Khyber passes, each of which ar the worst terrain on the planet and also incidentally manned by a corps plus of troop........each, professional, trained and motivated troops. Air strikes in such terrain as experience has shown time and time again, are ineffective at high altitudes and suicidal at lower.

The only real weapons Pakistanis need are what they have plenty of and can be resupplied with easily, Arty,ATGMs and MANPADS.

Either way lots of Soviets are going to die. They have 2 options if they wish to attack. 1) move, cat 1 divs in E Germany. Thus is the only way they ar going to be able to break through the passes eventually. However this mo ement is going to be responded by US troops coming to Pakistan well before the Sovs are even ready. Now they face a war with the US. Option 2) maximum surprise, just employ troops in theater. That's about 8 divisions, in both Afghaistan and Tajikistan. To give you some idea, Cezchoslovakia in 1968 took 350000 troops in 50 divisions, and that was a much much much easier campaign then any in Pakistan promises to be. So the attack fails, and the Soviets have twi choices, either reinforce and face the Americans who are by nkw arriving or back down and admit they lost ro a third world country.


The sovs knows the above , which is why they did not do it.
You miss the whole point there significant differences from the OTL

1-major insurgency in balochistan sponsered by soviets keeping pakistanis occupied
2-Simultaneous attack in azad kashmir by indians
3-Pashtun warlords are bribed and encouraged by the pashtun nationalist govt in Afghanistan to rise up against the pakistan army
4-Soviets are going in with LIMITED objectives in pakitsan ( compariosn with czechoslovakia is not valid) they wont come riding through with their tanks through the khybar pass
5-Pak army has NO TRAINING to fight the kind of guerilla warfare as you are describing these soldiers drilled in textbook styles sweeps thru plains of punjab and rajastan are just as inflexible in their tactical thinking as soviet conscripts.
 

nastle

Banned
The chances of this happening are near zero. The USSR is not going invade Pakistan with RR in office. They were worried that he would start WWIII at any excuse and now they are going to just hand him that excuse? Even if you get rid of Reagan the US government is going to notice the preperations for the invasion long before either the USSR or India is ready. Once that happens they send the 101st airborne and start moving armor divisions or at the very least brigades to Pakistan. Meanwhile 2 or 3 Nimitz class carriers are sent to the region adding a LOT of firepower. The Soviets aren't going to invade anywhere there are a lot of US troops.
okay even of that happens it would be a korea part II

soviet/indian influenced area of kashmir part of NWFP and balochistan governed by local warlords who have deep animosity against punjabi dominated pak army and the american supported rump state of pakistan( of sind and punjab).
I see no need for nuclear war in Europe
 

Cook

Banned
4-Soviets are going in with LIMITED objectives in pakitsan ( compariosn with czechoslovakia is not valid) they wont come riding through with their tanks through the khybar pass
For some reason you don’t seem to be appreciating that what you are describing does not in any way shape or form sound limited. From the start you have talked about a multi-divisional force, with further heavy units coming in as a second tier. Limited is when you use local forces near the border to attack Mujahidin training camps near refugee camps within a few kilometres of the Afghan border. Preparations for what you are describing would not be seen as a limited action, it would be seen as the start of a full scale invasion.
 

nastle

Banned
Limited as compared to invasion of czechoslovakia
as there will be no invasion of islamabad or the big urban areas
 

Cook

Banned
Limited as compared to invasion of czechoslovakia
as there will be no invasion of islamabad or the big urban areas
But US Intelligence analysts are not going to see that, all they are going to see is large scale military preparations in Afghanistan and the Southern Soviet Republics and simultaneous preparations in India. They are going to try to project Indo-Soviet intentions based on the capabilities of the forces mobilised and the believed Soviet Strategic ambitions and then they are going to act according to those projections.
 

nastle

Banned
But US Intelligence analysts are not going to see that, all they are going to see is large scale military preparations in Afghanistan and the Southern Soviet Republics and simultaneous preparations in India. They are going to try to project Indo-Soviet intentions based on the capabilities of the forces mobilised and the believed Soviet Strategic ambitions and then they are going to act according to those projections.
We have discussed this before, I really appreciate your input in this thread but I dont agree with your conclusion.
 
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