Russo-German War without WWI?

I've been thinking a lot about that general period, and I was wondering if it was at all possible for Germany and Russia to go to war without the preceding events of the beginning of the war?

If so, how does this play out and what is the outcome? I would be hesitant to assume anything, because I don't know anything beyond the basics of the period. Is the entente destined to get involved? Will France declare war on Germany if Germany invaded Russia?

Or will a Russo-German War be the trigger of a WWI if Franz Ferdinand isn't killed or some such POD?
 
I think France would get itself involved. They might strike to take back Alsace-Lorraine from Germany, or just fight to stick a finger in Germany's eye in defence of the French ally Russia.

I think that that is likely to be the extent of the war, unless Germany violates Belgian neutrality (bring in UK), or France collapses on the fields of battle (bringing in Italy). In which case the Russo-German war does become global.

However, my knowledge of this time period is rather limited, so my ideas might not hold water...
 
A conflict between Germany and Russia would have to involve France which was allied with Russia at this time and very likely Austro-Hungary which was allied to Germany.

The German war plan the famed Schlieffen Plan assumes France's involvement because it requires taking out France before Russia has had time to mobilize its larger man power. As part of this plan requires German troops to sweep through neutral Belgium and because of the 1839 treaty that Britain had signed guaranteeing Belgium neutrality you now have Britain jumping up and down.

My guess is that for an ATL to work, you need to break the alliance between Russia and France. Perhaps with assuming that the revolution in Russia goes according to plan at least by the early twenties. The Soviet state would then become as it became the pariah of Europe and tensions between Germany and it would grow, especially if Austro-Hungary collapses as well it might have even with out World War 1. By this point the Alliance between France and Russia would be broken and if revolution spread to the neighbouring Austro-Hungary Germany might well forget about possible threats from the West and concentrate on the East. It is likely that this new Eastern threat could well have solidified the Western nations into a friendlier stance with one another.

So a possible scenario, say a major depression hits Europe towards the end of the 1910's, revolution hits Russia in 1920. Followed by the collapse of the Austro-Hungarian Empire a year or so later. A new Soviet Union under Lenin begins a major industrialization process and focus its attention on the newly established countries that have formed out of the remains of the old Hapsburg Empire. First by providing support for any the the revolutionary groups that exist and later as Soviet military strength grows it starts looking at annexing territories along its western boarders.

Germany becoming more and more worried forms an alliance with the major Western States (France and Britain also concern by growing Soviet power.) A Soviet intervention in Finland sparks a war with the west.
 
Top