Russo-German Alliance and the WWI. Who will win?

[Mccdtk]

Recently I've been pondering a funky alternate WWI scenario in which Germany allies with Russia, which I believe is not as far fetched as it sounds.
As part of said pondering I formed the two opposing sides accordingly:

1. Germany - I assumed they never got their relationship with Austria-Hungary settled and thought plausible that Germany would want to expand into Austria and Bohemia
2. Russia - they too would want their piece of cake, possibly taking Galicia and putting Hungary in their sphere of influence
3. France - they would obviously be the main opposing force for Germany and Russia
4. Austria-Hungary - I imagine they'd ally with France; the French wanting an ally to squish Germany in a two-front war; forming the Entente
5. Italy - the Kingdom had interests in both France and AH and thus would join the "Imperial Powers" (as I dubbed the Russo-German bloc); they'd possibly want Nice and Savoy back, Tunisia as a colony from the French and the Adriatic Coast off of the Austrians
6. Britain - assuming Germany continued their policy of "strongest blue-water navy = strongest power in the world" they'd join the Entente
7. The Ottomans - probably would join against Russia, to take hold of the Caucasus, as well as potentially gain back some land from the Italians, which was lost a few years prior
8. Greece - would most likely heed Russia's call, as well as join against the Ottomans
9. Serbia - Russian ally; hates Austria
10. Romania - similarly to above
11. Bulgaria - I believe they'd join the Austrians

As for the US: they might join if the Germans use the policy of indiscriminate ship-sinking around the British Isles, or continue their isolationism if undisturbed.

And thus the lineup stands:
Imperial Powers:
Germany, Russia, Italy, Greece, Serbia, Romania
The Entente:
France, Austria-Hungary, Britain, the Ottomans, Bulgaria

Now as for what I would like to know:
Are the lineups at all reasonable?
Who do you think would win such a WWI?

 

[alexmilman]

Recently I've been pondering a funky alternate WWI scenario in which Germany allies with Russia, which I believe is not as far fetched as it sounds.
As part of said pondering I formed the two opposing sides accordingly:

1. Germany - I assumed they never got their relationship with Austria-Hungary settled and thought plausible that Germany would want to expand into Austria and Bohemia
2. Russia - they too would want their piece of cake, possibly taking Galicia and putting Hungary in their sphere of influence
3. France - they would obviously be the main opposing force for Germany and Russia
4. Austria-Hungary - I imagine they'd ally with France; the French wanting an ally to squish Germany in a two-front war; forming the Entente
5. Italy - the Kingdom had interests in both France and AH and thus would join the "Imperial Powers" (as I dubbed the Russo-German bloc); they'd possibly want Nice and Savoy back, Tunisia as a colony from the French and the Adriatic Coast off of the Austrians
6. Britain - assuming Germany continued their policy of "strongest blue-water navy = strongest power in the world" they'd join the Entente
7. The Ottomans - probably would join against Russia, to take hold of the Caucasus, as well as potentially gain back some land from the Italians, which was lost a few years prior
8. Greece - would most likely heed Russia's call, as well as join against the Ottomans
9. Serbia - Russian ally; hates Austria
10. Romania - similarly to above
11. Bulgaria - I believe they'd join the Austrians

As for the US: they might join if the Germans use the policy of indiscriminate ship-sinking around the British Isles, or continue their isolationism if undisturbed.

And thus the lineup stands:
Imperial Powers:
Germany, Russia, Italy, Greece, Serbia, Romania
The Entente:
France, Austria-Hungary, Britain, the Ottomans, Bulgaria

Now as for what I would like to know:
Are the lineups at all reasonable?
Who do you think would win such a WWI?

The initial combination would make WWI pretty much unrealistic. For the starters, getting into such a war would be clearly suicidal for AH and this leaves France pretty much alone on the continent.

The Ottomans in this schema are pretty much irrelevant: Russia was going to have more resources than needed to defeat them.

 

[Mccdtk]

The initial combination would make WWI pretty much unrealistic. For the starters, getting into such a war would be clearly suicidal for AH and this leaves France pretty much alone on the continent.

The Ottomans in this schema are pretty much irrelevant: Russia was going to have more resources than needed to defeat them.

The idea was that the whole war would start from Germany and Russia wanting to partition Austria-Hungary, and thus would be murder if anything as opposed to suicide.
Edit: France and Britain would join in order to stop Germany and Russia from growing.

 

[alexmilman]

The idea was that the whole war would start from Germany and Russia wanting to partition Austria-Hungary, and thus would be murder if anything as opposed to suicide.

But how likely was such an idea? The OTL Russian actions and Brusilov’s memoirs create an impression that Russia did not have any serious plans regarding Galicia and saw some serious potential “issues” like adding more Poles and figuring out the policy regarding the Jewish landowners. Even the Galician Ukrainians were problematic: due to the AH policies the Western Ukraine became a hot bed of the Ukrainian nationalism (which would be spreading Eastward and did so in OTL after 1917) and they were predominantly the Uniats, not Orthodox. Russian relations with Hungary never close and, if anything, Russia would prefer influence over Czechia but geographically it would go to Germany.

Was Germany eager to add non-German Czechs to its subjects? Or the Catholic Germans (after the Czechs)?

Edit: France and Britain would join in order to stop Germany and Russia from growing.

 

[Catspoke]

I could see this war happening like,

The Ottomans commit some atrocity in Armenia, the Russians intervene, the British back the Ottomans. Sort of a Crimean war 2, the French join in with the British, bringing in the Germans.

Getting the Austrians in is tricky.

 

[PobreCesar]

I would say that the Entente will win, if and only if, the US gets involved on their side and the French/Austro-Hungarians manage to bog down the Imperial armies.

 

[Imperial Advocate]

I'm actually doing a TL on the very topic lol, link here (as a shameless advertisement).

 

[Mccdtk]

But how likely was such an idea? The OTL Russian actions and Brusilov’s memoirs create an impression that Russia did not have any serious plans regarding Galicia and saw some serious potential “issues” like adding more Poles and figuring out the policy regarding the Jewish landowners. Even the Galician Ukrainians were problematic: due to the AH policies the Western Ukraine became a hot bed of the Ukrainian nationalism (which would be spreading Eastward and did so in OTL after 1917) and they were predominantly the Uniats, not Orthodox. Russian relations with Hungary never close and, if anything, Russia would prefer influence over Czechia but geographically it would go to Germany.

Was Germany eager to add non-German Czechs to its subjects? Or the Catholic Germans (after the Czechs)?

The idea isn't very likely in the first place, to be honest. The whole thing came about when I got inspired by a r/imaginarymaps post with a Germano-Russian alliance.
Me pondering was just trying to figure out what the alliances would look like if they did ally.
I guess making Germany's and Russia's interests align is difficult in the first place.

I could see this war happening like,

The Ottomans commit some atrocity in Armenia, the Russians intervene, the British back the Ottomans. Sort of a Crimean war 2, the French join in with the British, bringing in the Germans.

Getting the Austrians in is tricky.

Maybe something along the lines of: Austria sees it as an opportunity to snag Bosnia and Serbia brings Russia's attention to it, pushing the Tsar to intervene? Basically how it happened IRL.

 

[Mccdtk]

I would say that the Entente will win, if and only if, the US gets involved on their side and the French/Austro-Hungarians manage to bog down the Imperial armies.

I was thinking the same thing. When I ran the numbers a while ago the amount of mobilised troops was only larger on the Entente side if the US was involved.

 

[OxSpace]

I would say that the Entente will win, if and only if, the US gets involved on their side and the French/Austro-Hungarians manage to bog down the Imperial armies.

I was thinking the same thing. When I ran the numbers a while ago the amount of mobilised troops was only larger on the Entente side if the US was involved.

Numbers mean absolutely nothing when you have a front at literally every corner of your Empire. There is very little way for France to support Austria-Hungary is any materialistic or convincing way. Austria-Hungary would fall in 1914 and that would leave France and Britain alone. Considering the near success of the schlieffen plan iotl, France likely does not last long after that. The US will have no time to join because the soldiers will be home by Christmas.

 

[pandizzy]

Am I crazy to think that this should be in post-1900?

 

[Mccdtk]

Am I crazy to think that this should be in post-1900?

Well, I kind of intended this discussion to be more about how Germany and Russia would ally, thus pre-1900, but yeah, I think I'll move it, if it's possible.

 

[JackLumber]

I doubt this war would even kick off but should it the Russo-German alliance win it quite handily.
AH will collapse in likely a matter of weeks to months, depending on how quickly the minors around it join the Russo-German alliance.
The Habsburg realm couldn't have held up against the Germans or the Russians, let alone both and then on top of that Serbia, Romania and Italy would be joining very enthusiastically, the Hungarian are likely to try some kind of revolt to spare themselves being too carved up, they may be able to hold onto at least Slovakia if Germany is receptive to this.
This will leave Germany and Italy free to focus on France and Russia+friends to mop up any Balkan resistance and deal with the Ottomans, assuming they joined.
The British Empire likely won't have the time to martial and focus it's considerable power on France fast enough to save it from the Italo-German assualt (although expect the Italians to take terrible casualties for minimal gains).
The German Empire will annex Austria, the territories of the modern Czech Republic, Luxembourg, key iron rich regions of France, possibly up to the Meuse river in Belgium, and potentially most of Slovenia. They are likely to seek to establish prevailing influence over what will remain of hungary and they will likelybtry to establish their "MittleAfrika" and the expense of France nd belgium, it's also probable they do a cheeky name change to the Empire of Germany to reflect the Kaiser's dominion over basically all German land.
Italy is likely to get Savoy, Nice, Corsica, Trentino (but not South Tyrol), istria, Trieste, Dalmatia (likely all but at least in part), likely parts Slovenia and Croatia to connect all this territory (I don't think the Germans would care enough to argue with the Italians over it), Tunisia and they may ask for more Greek islands if the Greeks enter the war and may desire more Ottoman land but I'm not sure they'd get much.
The Russians will likely annex Galicia even if it is a bit of a poison pill for the sake of pan slavic legitimacy, they may seek to establish a Slovakia for the same reason, assuming the Ottomans join they will want the straights, they may seek more Armenian land but the big prize for them will be the straights and having successfully brought all the Balkans under their sphere of influence.
Romania will ask for and likely recieve Transylvania, Bukovina and Romanian majority parts of the Banat.
Serbia is likely to try to form a greater Yugoslav state and if Bulgaria joins the war they may even try to include it, if Greece joins the war they may try to take the same parts of Greece bulgaria wanted, they may also desire forcibly incorporate Albania, they may or may not receive Slovenia and Dalmatia depending on how the peace deal shakes out but I suspect Germany and Italy would be taking the bulk of those lands.

Britian is going to be well and truly annoyed but isn't likely to lose much other than pride due to their overwhelming naval advantage, they may trade back German colonies for continental concessions in the peace deal (something like giving back German colonies to secure the continued existence of Belgium)
They are then likely to begin attempting to drive some kind of wedge in this continental alliance.
France is relegated to a secondary power in the face of German preeminence in western and central Europe.
Austria-Hungary will largely cease to be, the Habsburgs may be permitted to still rule in a reduced Hungary and/or a reduced Austria and if they are permitted to rule in a reduced Austria (bohemia is likely to be seperated as either a kingdom or annexed by Prussia) as a part of Germany I wouldn't be surprised if the Hohenzollerns rub it in by admitting them as mere Dukes instead of kings like Saxony and Bavaria.

 

[Mccdtk]

I doubt this war would even kick off but should it the Russo-German alliance win it quite handily.
AH will collapse in likely a matter of weeks to months, depending on how quickly the minors around it join the Russo-German alliance.
The Habsburg realm couldn't have held up against the Germans or the Russians, let alone both and then on top of that Serbia, Romania and Italy would be joining very enthusiastically, the Hungarian are likely to try some kind of revolt to spare themselves being too carved up, they may be able to hold onto at least Slovakia if Germany is receptive to this.
This will leave Germany and Italy free to focus on France and Russia+friends to mop up any Balkan resistance and deal with the Ottomans, assuming they joined.
The British Empire likely won't have the time to martial and focus it's considerable power on France fast enough to save it from the Italo-German assualt (although expect the Italians to take terrible casualties for minimal gains).
The German Empire will annex Austria, the territories of the modern Czech Republic, Luxembourg, key iron rich regions of France, possibly up to the Meuse river in Belgium, and potentially most of Slovenia. They are likely to seek to establish prevailing influence over what will remain of hungary and they will likelybtry to establish their "MittleAfrika" and the expense of France nd belgium, it's also probable they do a cheeky name change to the Empire of Germany to reflect the Kaiser's dominion over basically all German land.
Italy is likely to get Savoy, Nice, Corsica, Trentino (but not South Tyrol), istria, Trieste, Dalmatia (likely all but at least in part), likely parts Slovenia and Croatia to connect all this territory (I don't think the Germans would care enough to argue with the Italians over it), Tunisia and they may ask for more Greek islands if the Greeks enter the war and may desire more Ottoman land but I'm not sure they'd get much.
The Russians will likely annex Galicia even if it is a bit of a poison pill for the sake of pan slavic legitimacy, they may seek to establish a Slovakia for the same reason, assuming the Ottomans join they will want the straights, they may seek more Armenian land but the big prize for them will be the straights and having successfully brought all the Balkans under their sphere of influence.
Romania will ask for and likely recieve Transylvania, Bukovina and Romanian majority parts of the Banat.
Serbia is likely to try to form a greater Yugoslav state and if Bulgaria joins the war they may even try to include it, if Greece joins the war they may try to take the same parts of Greece bulgaria wanted, they may also desire forcibly incorporate Albania, they may or may not receive Slovenia and Dalmatia depending on how the peace deal shakes out but I suspect Germany and Italy would be taking the bulk of those lands.

Britian is going to be well and truly annoyed but isn't likely to lose much other than pride due to their overwhelming naval advantage, they may trade back German colonies for continental concessions in the peace deal (something like giving back German colonies to secure the continued existence of Belgium)
They are then likely to begin attempting to drive some kind of wedge in this continental alliance.
France is relegated to a secondary power in the face of German preeminence in western and central Europe.
Austria-Hungary will largely cease to be, the Habsburgs may be permitted to still rule in a reduced Hungary and/or a reduced Austria and if they are permitted to rule in a reduced Austria (bohemia is likely to be seperated as either a kingdom or annexed by Prussia) as a part of Germany I wouldn't be surprised if the Hohenzollerns rub it in by admitting them as mere Dukes instead of kings like Saxony and Bavaria.

While I would agree that the Imperial win would be most likely, it's not like the Austrians don't have mountains (Alps and Carpathians) they can use to their advantage. Austria-Hungary would still likely fall though.
Had the Imperial Powers won I don't believe Imperial Germany would annex Austria and Czechia, I think they'd install their princes though.
As for Mittelafrika: it's such a tired trope, for one, and two, I honestly don't think they could pull it off that easily. Germany would have to pacify the colonial authorities in all of the colonies (unless I'm misunderstanding how the colonial administrations worked).
Russia would probably annex Galicia, but Slovakia might be taking it too far.

 

[JackLumber]

While I would agree that the Imperial win would be most likely, it's not like the Austrians don't have mountains (Alps and Carpathians) they can use to their advantage. Austria-Hungary would still likely fall though.
Had the Imperial Powers won I don't believe Imperial Germany would annex Austria and Czechia, I think they'd install their princes though.
As for Mittelafrika: it's such a tired trope, for one, and two, I honestly don't think they could pull it off that easily. Germany would have to pacify the colonial authorities in all of the colonies (unless I'm misunderstanding how the colonial administrations worked).
Russia would probably annex Galicia, but Slovakia might be taking it too far.

Austria-Hungary is being attacked from all sides mountains or no mountains they will quickly fold, besides you really only have to occupy bohemia and Vienna (if that) which is very doable, the Austrians couldn't hold their borders on their own with Germany as an ally, they won't stand a chance when the Germans are an enemy.
The Germans would annex Austria and Czechia, Bohemia was extremely valuable land and not absorbing Austria after their empire collapses is basically politically impossible whether the German leadership wants it or not the people will demand it.
You can call MittleAfrika a trope of you want but the Germans actively desired more African colonies than they had and France and Belgium wouldn't be in a position to argue the transfer of colonies, if the colonies attempted to resist on their own after that is another matter but I doubt they'd be successful.
I don't think the Russians would annex Slovakia, they just may support the creation of Slovakia as a country.

 

[Fehérvári]

The Alps, Bohemian Forest, Sudetes and Carpathians provide superior defence positions for A-H. If the Habsburg Monarchy properly prepares for the war (French levels of militarisation), then they can hold out and outlast the Germans and Russians as long as the Aegean is uncontested and Franco-British reinforcements can pour in.

 

[wcv215]

Italy most likely stays neutral, since they don’t want to go to war with the British. And I wouldn’t count AH or on Russia out for a very simple reason, France. OTL France pumped a massive amoint of money in the Russian economy in the form of pre-war loans to finance Russian industrialization and modernization. But here Russia is a French enemy given the alliance with Germany. Russia will thus be both more backwards and significantly weaker internally. As it was French loans which stabilized the tsar’s absolutist government after 1905 OTL.

And instead all that money will be going into Austria instead pre-war. Meaning the problems with the chronically underfunded army and state as a whole will be less of a problem. Austria still has a lot of issues, but they won’t be as bad off as they were OTL. And if Germany focuses on Austria first then France will smash across the border, and possibly takenthe Rhineland before Germany can finish off the Austrians.

 

[Basils]

I would say that the Entente will win, if and only if, the US gets involved on their side and the French/Austro-Hungarians manage to bog down the Imperial armies.

I could see the USA swinging the balance. But no way does AH hang in against Russia alone. Plus whatever Germany decides to throw at them. They are out by early 15imho. Nothing saves them unless they get Italians on their side plus probably the Anzacs in early 15 instead of Gallipoli

 

[PobreCesar]

But no way does AH hang in against Russia alone

A-H would collapse for sure. But dealing with the insurgent nationalists who spring out of the wreck of A-H might be much harder than toppling the Empire itself.

 

[alexmilman]

The Alps, Bohemian Forest, Sudetes and Carpathians provide superior defence positions for A-H. If the Habsburg Monarchy properly prepares for the war (French levels of militarisation), then they can hold out and outlast the Germans and Russians as long as the Aegean is uncontested and Franco-British reinforcements can pour in.

Carpathian Mountains are not a big deal and France and Britain would be extremely busy defending France against Germany: in OTL they had been repeatedly asking for the Russian offensives to prevent the German ones on the Western Front. Not to mention that the massive French-British landing in Trieste with the troops then marching all the way to the Russian front is a logistical fantasy, anyway.
AH hardly could afford the “French” levels of the mobilization much more than Russia did so it does not make sense to go into that line of the fantasies. But, IIRC, in OTL France started running out of money rather quickly and had to ask Britain for the loans. Who will provide AH with the funds?
Anyway, with practically all Russian army lined against it, plus Serbia, Rumania, Italy, AH is encircled and attacked on all sides. The best thing it can do is to sue for peace really fast to get reasonably descent terms.