Russia's Current Population Without Bolshevism and Without World War II

[CaliGuy]

What would Russia's current population be without Bolshevism/Communism and without World War II?

(For the record, one way to do this might be to somehow eliminate the Bolshevik Revolution in 1917, have Russia barely hold out in World War I until the end, and then to have the butterflies from this prevent World War II.)

As for my own thoughts on this, given that a non-Bolshevik Russia would probably indefinitely keep the overwhelming majority of Tsarist Russia's territory, this TL's Russia would have a population at least two times larger than our TL's Russia has in 2016. (Indeed, the Soviet Union's total population was about two times more than Russia's total population.) Of course, without World War II and Bolshevism (including the purges, mass killings, gulags, and Russian Civil War), Russia would have even more people than that. Indeed, instead of having around 300 million people (for the record, the Soviet Union had about 290 people right before it collapsed in 1991 in our TL), this TL's Russia would probably have somewhere between 400 and 500 million people right now (in 2016).

Anyway, any thoughts on this?

 

[CaliGuy]

Also, for the record, I doubt that a non-Bolshevik Russian government would actually allow territories such as Ukraine, Kazakhstan, et cetera to secede from Russia; after all, countries generally don't like losing their own territory.

 

[DrakonFin]

For questions like this, I think a search of the forum could be a good place to start before making a thread of it. Here, for example, is at least one short thread where a similar question was considered last year.

Also, for the record, I doubt that a non-Bolshevik Russian government would actually allow territories such as Ukraine, Kazakhstan, et cetera to secede from Russia; after all, countries generally don't like losing their own territory.

It might not be a question about whether or not St. Petersburg wants to allow it, as a Tsarist Russia that does not reform might reach a stage where it will break up all on its own and be (temporarily) powerless to stop such secessions, especially if other powers support these breakaway states in order to weaken Russia. In other words, how this not-Bolshevik Russia develops politically and economically will have a major effect on whether the Empire stays together or not. The trajectory Russia was on IOTL - major economic growth, growing cities and a growing working class, major economic inequalities, mounting social problems, rebellious minorities kept down by force, an oppressive and ramshackle, increasingly obsolete political system - will see many things come to a head in the 20s and 30s even without the OTL revolution(s). It was not a stable system, as systems go.

 

[CaliGuy]

For questions like this, I think a search of the forum could be a good place to start before making a thread of it. Here, for example, is at least one short thread where a similar question was considered last year.

Two things:

1. Tsarism is still overthrown in Russia during WWI in this TL.
2. I was told to create new threads rather than bump very old ones.

It might not be a question about whether or not St. Petersburg wants to allow it, as a Tsarist Russia that does not reform might reach a stage where it will break up all on its own and be (temporarily) powerless to stop such secessions, especially if other powers support these breakaway states in order to weaken Russia. In other words, how this not-Bolshevik Russia develops politically and economically will have a major effect on whether the Empire stays together or not. The trajectory Russia was on IOTL - major economic growth, growing cities and a growing working class, major economic inequalities, mounting social problems, rebellious minorities kept down by force, an oppressive and ramshackle, increasingly obsolete political system - will see many things come to a head in the 20s and 30s even without the OTL revolution(s). It was not a stable system, as systems go.

I was talking about Tsarism still collapsing but having the Russian Provisional Government survive, though.

Also, wouldn't supporting separatists in Russia create an extremely dangerous precedent for other countries? After all, if Ukraine is entitled to secede, why not, say, Algeria?

 

[DrakonFin]

2. I was told to create new threads rather than bump very old ones.

I mean that this is the kind of question that has been most likely considered before, and looking for such threads is very helpful in order to find info before posting a new thread. Especially post #5 by Viriato in the thread I linked should be very informative.

I was talking about Tsarism still collapsing but having the Russian Provisional Government survive, though.

Also, wouldn't supporting separatists in Russia create an extremely dangerous precedent for other countries? After all, if Ukraine is entitled to secede, why not, say, Algeria?

I think you should flesh it out some more - how did the war exactly end for Russia and the other states, especially in Eastern and Central Europe, how is the post-WWI world outside Russia in general, how is the new Russian political system working, what is St.Petersburg (or Moscow) doing to address the many issues the former empire has, why did no parts of the empire break away at the end of WWI, etc. That would be helpful in terms of considering the future development of Russia.

And anyway, nationalism would be a thing in Europe after WWI anyway, and there probably would be new nations in Europe - maybe Austria-Hungary broke apart, maybe Germany was dismembered, maybe something happened in the Balkans, etc. We can't know that until we have more information about this world.

 

[CaliGuy]

I mean that this is the kind of question that has been most likely considered before, and looking for such threads is very helpful in order to find info before posting a new thread. Especially post #5 by Viriato in the thread I linked should be very informative.

OK; also, Yes, post #5 in that thread is certainly extremely detailed and informative!

I think you should flesh it out some more - how did the war exactly end for Russia and the other states, especially in Eastern and Central Europe,

The war ends the same way that it does in our TL, but with a smaller stab-in-the-back myth and with Russia (barely) remaining in the war until the end.

how is the post-WWI world outside Russia in general,

Outside of Turkey, Poland, and the Baltic states, it looks the same way that it looks in our TL.

how is the new Russian political system working,

You tell me.

what is St.Petersburg (or Moscow) doing to address the many issues the former empire has,

Presumably working on land reform and on providing greater autonomy to various parts of Russia.

why did no parts of the empire break away at the end of WWI, etc.

Actually, both Poland and Finland did do this.

That would be helpful in terms of considering the future development of Russia.

OK.

And anyway, nationalism would be a thing in Europe after WWI anyway, and there probably would be new nations in Europe - maybe Austria-Hungary broke apart, maybe Germany was dismembered, maybe something happened in the Balkans, etc. We can't know that until we have more information about this world.

Other than the areas where Russia was strongly involved, the post-WWI peace settlement in this TL looks very similar to what it looks like in our TL.

 

[BobTheBarbarian]

I recall Aleksey Kuropatkin (of Russo Japanese War infamy) stating in an article just after the conclusion of said war that by the year 2000 the population of the Russian Empire would be more than 450 million.

I'll see if I can find the exact link...

 

[CaliGuy]

I recall Aleksey Kuropatkin (of Russo Japanese War infamy) stating in an article just after the conclusion of said war that by the year 2000 the population of the Russian Empire would be more than 450 million.

I'll see if I can find the exact link...

Yes, please do!

 

[fasquardon]

What would Russia's current population be without Bolshevism/Communism and without World War II?

(For the record, one way to do this might be to somehow eliminate the Bolshevik Revolution in 1917, have Russia barely hold out in World War I until the end, and then to have the butterflies from this prevent World War II.)

As for my own thoughts on this, given that a non-Bolshevik Russia would probably indefinitely keep the overwhelming majority of Tsarist Russia's territory, this TL's Russia would have a population at least two times larger than our TL's Russia has in 2016. (Indeed, the Soviet Union's total population was about two times more than Russia's total population.) Of course, without World War II and Bolshevism (including the purges, mass killings, gulags, and Russian Civil War), Russia would have even more people than that. Indeed, instead of having around 300 million people (for the record, the Soviet Union had about 290 people right before it collapsed in 1991 in our TL), this TL's Russia would probably have somewhere between 400 and 500 million people right now (in 2016).

Anyway, any thoughts on this?

If Russian fertility declines at the same rate it did OTL, no further great wars happened (or at least, happened to Russia), then it would likely end up with a population of around 500 million.

However, without Bolshevism, Russian fertility would likely decline at a rate comparable to Latin America (the most similar economies to Russia). If fertility had followed a Latin American path, then likely we'd have close to 1 billion people in the Russian Empire by today.

fasquardon

 

[CaliGuy]

If Russian fertility declines at the same rate it did OTL, no further great wars happened (or at least, happened to Russia), then it would likely end up with a population of around 500 million.

However, without Bolshevism, Russian fertility would likely decline at a rate comparable to Latin America (the most similar economies to Russia). If fertility had followed a Latin American path, then likely we'd have close to 1 billion people in the Russian Empire by today.

fasquardon

Three questions:

1. Didn't parts of Latin America also have a lot of immigration?
2. How much immigration would there be to Russia in the 20th and early 21st centuries in this TL?
3. Would Russia actually have enough room, resources, food, et cetera for 1 billion people?

 

[fasquardon]

Didn't parts of Latin America also have a lot of immigration?

Yes. Parts did. But that really has nothing to do with the price of fish.

We're talking about when Latin America experienced its demographic transition (that is, when the number of babies born/woman dropped from 19th Century highs to the replacement rate - the only way immigration changes this is if lots of women are immigrating and they have preference for more or less children than the women who lived there before).

The Soviet Union experienced an extremely fast demographic transition after 1917 because a certain tyrant forced people into the cities (people in cities tend to have fewer children) and the Bolsheviks had a big fetish for education (educated people also tend to have fewer children).

How much immigration would there be to Russia in the 20th and early 21st centuries in this TL?

Some. But emigration would exceed immigration by a long way just as it was before 1917.

Would Russia actually have enough room, resources, food, et cetera for 1 billion people?

Probably not. As much as people often go on about Russian/Soviet resources, the truth is, most of the country's resources are in Siberia, a long way from the population centers and many of them may be too expensive to ever exploit. Also, "enough space and resources for 1 billion dirt poor people" is very different from "enough space and resources for 1 billion rich people". If Russians in this ATL had a per capita wealth equivalent to that enjoyed by modern Bolivians (among the poorest countries in Latin America), then probably there would be enough resources to support everyone. If Russians in this ATL had a per capita wealth equivalent to the people of modern Mexico, then likely Russia would depend on importing food and other key resources.

fasquardon