Russian win in the Russo-Japanese war.Could Russia rip Manchuria off during the Xinhai Revolution

Say Russia wins the Russo-Japanese war or it doesn't happen

Could Russia carve Manchuria off as a puppet state similar to Mongolia during the Xinhai Revolution
 
Say Russia wins the Russo-Japanese war or it doesn't happen

Could Russia carve Manchuria off as a puppet state similar to Mongolia during the Xinhai Revolution

Maybe but...

Russia would have to have a couple of ASBs parked in Port Arthur and in the HQ of the 1st Manchurian Army to do it. How the Russians could LOSE that war on paper has always astonished me. After doing research for "Another Splendid Mess You Got Us Into, Teddy!", I've since come to the conclusion that the Russians were heroes led by morons.
 
Maybe but...

Russia would have to have a couple of ASBs parked in Port Arthur and in the HQ of the 1st Manchurian Army to do it. How the Russians could LOSE that war on paper has always astonished me. After doing research for "Another Splendid Mess You Got Us Into, Teddy!", I've since come to the conclusion that the Russians were heroes led by morons.

Well, not just that. Even with all of the disasters in the Russo-Japanese War, it still wouldn't have been a Russian defeat if not for the Revolution of 1905 forcing them to the peace table.
 

raharris1973

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Why couldn't Japan rip off Manchuria during the Xinhai revolution in OTL? Or Russia and Japan rip it off and split it?
 
Poles could be Russified also. Only think stop that is collapsed Russian Empire. Anything staying inside Russian Empire be Russified in some degree.
Chinese and Poles would be too numerous to Russify, given that they have large populations of co-ethnics outside of Russian control.
 
Why couldn't Japan rip off Manchuria during the Xinhai revolution in OTL? Or Russia and Japan rip it off and split it?

Manchuria was already to large extent a part of Japanese sphere of influence so there wasn't particular need to have more formal control over the territory. Their businesses could operate quite freely in the area and same went to their military units. Having a direct control over the area brings its own expenses after-all. In addition, this was still very much a period of European high imperialism which was only ended by the WW1. There was an unwritten agreement between great powers to maintain some level of balance of power in China. By taking a chunk of the country Japan would have gone against this consensus and possibly provoked other powers to do the same while also hurting its foreign relations. It should be also noted that when Japan eventually took control over Manchuria, it wasn't so much response to the weakness of China but to the fear that the Chinese central government was strengthening and would be able to exert greater control over the region if Japanese didn't act soon. (There were many other factors too but this seems to have been fairly important.) In the case of the Xinhai Revolution such an urgent need to act didn't exist.

About the second question, there were probably similar factors than what I mentioned above though I also expect that there just didn't exist much interest between Russia and Japan to make such a deal. My understanding is that Nicholas II came to absolutely hate Japanese after the Russo-Japanese War. In addition, Russia and Japan suddenly agreeing to such a deal might have ruffled feathers of many policymakers in European capitals, particularly those of Japanese allies in London.
 
Manchuria is a game of two halves , the North , which is what Russia really wanted , is possible as most of the population is in the South. The South has too many Chinese for the Russia to successfully do it and in fact they only wanted a rail route through it and it not being under Japanese control. ( preferably under Russia influence but not vital)
 
A lot of Chinese in Russia now. Most Mary Russian woman. I guess if Russia acquired Manchuria they can provide initiative for Chinese to move to sibirea and north. Chinese hard working people. Offer them better life if they move to north or zelina
 
Geography is wrong. Those competitors were more interested in southern China since that was where their trade lanes were headed.

Southern China was long divided between the British and French zone of interest by this time around. We are talking about the Manchuria competition between the Americans, the Russians, and the Japanese.
 
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