So, as far as I can tell, a common answer to the question of "what if the loose White forces won the Russian Civil War" is that Russia would be a repeat of the Warlord Era in China, with a weak central government in Petrograd and various White generals and other forces carving out their own domains and territories in the periphery.
Honestly, such a scenario is incredibly fascinating to me, because there are just so many possibilities with such a concept for both internal Russian events and for the effect this would have on foreign powers. It couldn't just be a repeat of Warlord China, either. A Warlord Era in Russia, unlike in China, would be severely different because of Russia's prior status as a great power, its proximity to Western Europe and far different geographic conditions.
So, with that said, here are some topics of discussion:
- Has such a scenario been done in a TL before, and if so, where?
- What would the ideology of the central Russian government likely be? Would it be a restored monarchy? Some powerful White general like Wrangel, Denikin or Kolchak calling the shots? Or maybe a democratic republic, like the one established by the Constituent Assembly of 1918?
- What would the warlords and warlord regions be? The White movement had a plethora of colorful personalities. Wrangel, Denikin, Kolchak, Yudenich, Kornilov, Diterikhs, von Ungern-Sternberg... Anyone else?
- Would there be a Communist holdout, like in China? Not necessarily Bolshevik - the Komuch or Georgian Mensheviks could realistically fill that gap, imo. If so, where would its center of operations be and would they still have a chance to return to power? And if the far-left forces in Russia are pushed to the countryside and are forced to establish their base within the peasantry rather than the city proletariat, could something like a Russian equivalent of Maoism arise?
- How long would the Russian warlord era last? I couldn't imagine Russia staying divided for long - so if there is an equivalent of the Nanjing Decade, who would lead the charge for Russian reunification?
- What impact would the lack of a united Russia have on the Interwar period? The Nazis probably won't rise to power without the Soviet threat and communism would have its wings clipped in general... What about the impact on Eastern Europe, the actions of the Entente victors, USA?
Lots of food for thought.
Honestly, I see the "Russian warlord era" response get thrown around a lot, but never delving in to analyze what it would actually mean - so this is a start.