Russian victory in WW1?

[Panhomo]

How would Imperial Russia have fared in a WW1 started like OTL, but ending in allied victory fairly quickly, and without the revolution?

The Russians wanted all of Poland, but of course Poland's borders were very much up for debate. What sort of actual change would be likely?

How would the next few decades be different?

 

[TheSpectacledCloth]

Russia would have likely acquired East Prussia, Galicia (from Austria-Hungary), all of Poland that was dictated in the Treaty of Versailles, Silesia (from Germany) and possibly West Prussia if the Russians put up a far better fight. Essentially, we'd see Germany with it's modern borders, but by the end of World War I and Russia would get significantly more territory. Turkey (after the dissolve of the Ottoman Empire) could have potentially been transformed into a puppet state for the Russian Empire. That being said, Nicholas II would still have to work on serious reforms if he wants to keep his power. Even after Russia wins the war, Nicholas could potentially fall down the path of King Louis XVI (only more incompetent) and a revolution could still take place. Nicholas would have to crack on down on opposition, but still give sufficient reforms to satisfy the population. The Duma would receive much more power. Unless Nicholas would seek to modernize the Russian military and economy (like how Trotsky wanted and what Stalin carried out), Russia will still be fairly behind in terms of technology compared to Western Europe. There won't be a Cold War and relations between Russia and the West would still be fairly positive. What happens next is uncertain. But I know this, Hitler's going to be FAR more malicious in conquering Russia when the next World War begins.

 

[Thomas1195]

Russia would have likely acquired East Prussia, Galicia (from Austria-Hungary), all of Poland that was dictated in the Treaty of Versailles, Silesia (from Germany) and possibly West Prussia if the Russians put up a far better fight. Essentially, we'd see Germany with it's modern borders, but by the end of World War I and Russia would get significantly more territory. Turkey (after the dissolve of the Ottoman Empire) could have potentially been transformed into a puppet state for the Russian Empire. That being said, Nicholas II would still have to work on serious reforms if he wants to keep his power. Even after Russia wins the war, Nicholas could potentially fall down the path of King Louis XVI (only more incompetent) and a revolution could still take place. Nicholas would have to crack on down on opposition, but still give sufficient reforms to satisfy the population. The Duma would receive much more power. Unless Nicholas would seek to modernize the Russian military and economy (like how Trotsky wanted and what Stalin carried out), Russia will still be fairly behind in terms of technology compared to Western Europe. There won't be a Cold War and relations between Russia and the West would still be fairly positive. What happens next is uncertain. But I know this, Hitler's going to be FAR more malicious in conquering Russia when the next World War begins.

In this case, there would be no Munich appeasement because the West and Russia would be far more likely to work together, and Hitler would have been crushed by a coalition within a year.

 

[TheSpectacledCloth]

In this case, there would be no Munich appeasement because the West and Russia would be far more likely to work together, and Hitler would have been crushed by a coalition within a year.

Yes, but the reason why Chamberlain appeased Hitler wasn't because he feared that Germany was too strong to defeat. The memories of World War I still held a scarring thought in Europe's mind, and avoiding a similar war would be top agenda. Besides, why would Hitler bother in bullying Czechoslovakia if Russia possessed a LARGE fraction of German territory. My guess would be that the Nazis would seek to attack Russia as soon as they were prepared (or at least in Hitler's mind). Germany could still reunite with Austria beforehand, but seeking the Sudetenland would be meaningless for Hitler as Russia had annexed much of Eastern Germany. It's probably going to be less likely for the Nazis to be successful, but we truly don't know how history can be affected through significant alterations.

 

[Riain]

Early victories are likely to be much less harsh than Brest Litovsk and Versailles were IOTL and even if Germany gets beaten in the West is still likely to make big gains in the east meaning a deal for status quo ante bellum is probably the outcome. Any gains Russia makes are likely to be at the expense of Austria Hungary since that's where her successes on the battlefield were.

 

[TheSpectacledCloth]

Early victories are likely to be much less harsh than Brest Litovsk and Versailles were IOTL and even if Germany gets beaten in the West is still likely to make big gains in the east meaning a deal for status quo ante bellum is probably the outcome. Any gains Russia makes are likely to be at the expense of Austria Hungary since that's where her successes on the battlefield were.

True. Very good point. Galicia IS going to be gained by Russia.

 

[A Most Sovereign Lady]

The Imperial Russian Army was so good at kicking around the German and Austro-Hungarian armies that Germany bankrolled Lenin to stop them. You might want to come up with reasons that the Ancien' Regime didn't get toppled to prevent Resounding Victory, first.

 

[Thomas1195]

Early victories are likely to be much less harsh than Brest Litovsk and Versailles were IOTL and even if Germany gets beaten in the West is still likely to make big gains in the east meaning a deal for status quo ante bellum is probably the outcome. Any gains Russia makes are likely to be at the expense of Austria Hungary since that's where her successes on the battlefield were.

It depends, if these early victories in the west allow the French to acquire Alsace Lorraine (most german iron ore pre ww1 was from there) and actually get into Ruhr, then they could demand an armistice as a victor. But it also depends on the British imperialists who wanted to eliminate the German navy as a potential challenger.

Yes, but the reason why Chamberlain appeased Hitler wasn't because he feared that Germany was too strong to defeat. The memories of World War I still held a scarring thought in Europe's mind, and avoiding a similar war would be top agenda. Besides, why would Hitler bother in bullying Czechoslovakia if Russia possessed a LARGE fraction of German territory. My guess would be that the Nazis would seek to attack Russia as soon as they were prepared (or at least in Hitler's mind). Germany could still reunite with Austria beforehand, but seeking the Sudetenland would be meaningless for Hitler as Russia had annexed much of Eastern Germany. It's probably going to be less likely for the Nazis to be successful, but we truly don't know how history can be affected through significant alterations.

About Munich, what I want to say is that any action like that, such as remilitarize of rhineland or anschluss could make Germany being suppressed quickly. The haunting memories of ww1 would be less as the meatgrinding trench warfare did not become widespread like OTL.

 

[Riain]

It depends, if these early victories in the west allow the French to acquire Alsace Lorraine (most german iron ore pre ww1 was from there) and actually get into Ruhr, then they could demand an armistice as a victor. But it also depends on the British imperialists who wanted to eliminate the German navy as a potential challenger.

They may demand and get Alsace and Lorraine, but most likely not demand the emasculation of the Armed forces, crippling indemnities and massive territorial losses in the east. The war radicalised in about 1916, that's when the hard-arses took over and the demands got tough.

Not that I think a quick Entente victory is likely or even possible given German superiority in the operational and tactical levels of war.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

Russia would have likely acquired East Prussia, Galicia (from Austria-Hungary), all of Poland that was dictated in the Treaty of Versailles, Silesia (from Germany) and possibly West Prussia if the Russians put up a far better fight. Essentially, we'd see Germany with it's modern borders, but by the end of World War I and Russia would get significantly more territory.

Highly unlikely. Far too many "German" Germans being brought into the Empire (Baltic Germans were ethnically German but had a long history of serving the tsar). All the Polish German territory is a possibility, Posen for example. You might swing West Prussia, but I doubt the Russians would want the German exclave of East Prussia in the midst of their new territories. Having all that German territory in Russia is just asking for a rematch as soon as Germany is able. The last thing unstable ethnically riven Russia needs is another unified, politically diverse, modern, European-orientated minority.

Turkey (after the dissolve of the Ottoman Empire) could have potentially been transformed into a puppet state for the Russian Empire. That being said, Nicholas II would still have to work on serious reforms if he wants to keep his power. Even after Russia wins the war, Nicholas could potentially fall down the path of King Louis XVI (only more incompetent) and a revolution could still take place. Nicholas would have to crack on down on opposition, but still give sufficient reforms to satisfy the population.

All of which Nicholas is incapable of. He couldn't even do it when Russia was losing the war, why would he change his god-given role when he's won the war? A puppet state Turkey would have to give up Constantinople, the Third Rome being a long-held ambition of the Tsars, which probably means Turkish revolts and yet another Russo-Turkish war somewhere down the line, unless European turkey is so split up as to balkanise it into peace.

The Duma would receive much more power. Unless Nicholas would seek to modernize the Russian military and economy (like how Trotsky wanted and what Stalin carried out), Russia will still be fairly behind in terms of technology compared to Western Europe. There won't be a Cold War and relations between Russia and the West would still be fairly positive. What happens next is uncertain. But I know this, Hitler's going to be FAR more malicious in conquering Russia when the next World War begins.

A more powerful Duma is set up to go head to head with the Tsar, constitutional deadlock being the result. With your increased German population, there's every chance a "German party" comes onto the scene and attempts to dominate the Duma.

 

[TheSpectacledCloth]

Highly unlikely. Far too many "German" Germans being brought into the Empire (Baltic Germans were ethnically German but had a long history of serving the tsar). All the Polish German territory is a possibility, Posen for example. You might swing West Prussia, but I doubt the Russians would want the German exclave of East Prussia in the midst of their new territories. Having all that German territory in Russia is just asking for a rematch as soon as Germany is able. The last thing unstable ethnically riven Russia needs is another unified, politically diverse, modern, European-orientated minority.

All of which Nicholas is incapable of. He couldn't even do it when Russia was losing the war, why would he change his god-given role when he's won the war? A puppet state Turkey would have to give up Constantinople, the Third Rome being a long-held ambition of the Tsars, which probably means Turkish revolts and yet another Russo-Turkish war somewhere down the line, unless European turkey is so split up as to balkanise it into peace.


A more powerful Duma is set up to go head to head with the Tsar, constitutional deadlock being the result. With your increased German population, there's every chance a "German party" comes onto the scene and attempts to dominate the Duma.

After World War II, many Germans were resettled out of areas given Poland by the Soviet Union. If the large German population proved to be a problem with Russia's new borders, they could be forced into the new German borders. Nicholas was always incompetent but the army would have to be somewhat competent in order to win the war, so they'd ultimately go with resettling the German population if there's a revolt. Again, such resettlement is going to give Hitler more fire to attack Russia, but war is bound to happen between them due to the new borders..

 

[Evil Crusader]

The main objective of Russia in World War 1 was control of the Straits of Constantinople, so that's what they would have wanted - and probably gotten; free access, maybe with some guarantees.
After that, I think they'd just dismantle Galicia and Carpatho-Ukraine from the A-H Empire to have all the Ukrainians on board, maybe get a slice or two of East Prussia, but nothing more than that. Britain wouldn't have wanted that, and any further enlargement means Germany as a very pissed off neighbor.

 

[anotherlurker]

The main objective of Russia in World War 1 was control of the Straits of Constantinople, so that's what they would have wanted - and probably gotten; free access, maybe with some guarantees.
After that, I think they'd just dismantle Galicia and Carpatho-Ukraine from the A-H Empire to have all the Ukrainians on board, maybe get a slice or two of East Prussia, but nothing more than that. Britain wouldn't have wanted that, and any further enlargement means Germany as a very pissed off neighbor.

Not if the British have anything to say about that - the Russians would need to roll into Constantinople to enforce that, also the other side of the straits, even then teh British will blow a fuse because Russians in the Mediterranean is so not according to their plans you'd have people facepalming themselves for not supporting Germany and letting Russia become a superpower prematurely and putting them into a position where they can not be assaulted - Germany cut down to size, A-H gone and replaced by loyal Russian puppets, Straits in their hand etc.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

After World War II, many Germans were resettled out of areas given Poland by the Soviet Union. If the large German population proved to be a problem with Russia's new borders, they could be forced into the new German borders. Nicholas was always incompetent but the army would have to be somewhat competent in order to win the war, so they'd ultimately go with resettling the German population if there's a revolt. Again, such resettlement is going to give Hitler more fire to attack Russia, but war is bound to happen between them due to the new borders..

Yeah the key part there is after WWII up until then mass population exchanges weren't common.

This is, presumably, after a short WWI (Russia wouldn't be able to win any other kind) so the need to "punish" the loser wouldn't be as apparent. Computer game style massive territorial gains ignoring ethnicity and politics were the last thing the Russians needed - and they knew that. Poland is doable as the Tsar believed himself the protector of the Polish people. Germans - especially the Germans the Tsar has just fought in a War - are not what the Empire needs or wants. The as-yet-unknown quantity of Ukrainians in Galicia could be brought in but Protestant, educated, politically aware and in some cases ennobled and rich Germans are a no-no. Russia "forcing them into the new German borders" is the start of a new war or a revolution. The Soviets weren't as bothered about nationality and ethnicity (at least at the beginning) as other nations as the Workers Revolution would sweep all that away.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

Not if the British have anything to say about that - the Russians would need to roll into Constantinople to enforce that, also the other side of the straits, even then teh British will blow a fuse because Russians in the Mediterranean is so not according to their plans you'd have people facepalming themselves for not supporting Germany and letting Russia become a superpower prematurely and putting them into a position where they can not be assaulted - Germany cut down to size, A-H gone and replaced by loyal Russian puppets, Straits in their hand etc.

The British were willing for the Russians to have Constantinople in the Sykes-Picot negotiations? Or is this in the aftermath of a longer WWI only? After all, control of Constantinople is hardly control of the entire Med, especially to a RN based in Cyprus (or even in Alexandretta, if there's a British puppet Arab state of some kind).

 

[anotherlurker]

The British were willing for the Russians to have Constantinople in the Sykes-Picot negotiations? Or is this in the aftermath of a longer WWI only? After all, control of Constantinople is hardly control of the entire Med, especially to a RN based in Cyprus (or even in Alexandretta, if there's a British puppet Arab state of some kind).

The British promised a lot of things to a lot of people to get them to fight for the crown - without all parties knowing about it

 

[Deleted member 94680]

The British promised a lot of things to a lot of people to get them to fight for the crown - without all parties knowing about it

Haha! Too true, but surely the signatories of the agreement knew what was involved. That includes the French. If (in the context of a short, 3 party victorious, WWI) the French and the British agree on something - it's going to happen.

 

[Evil Crusader]

Not if the British have anything to say about that - the Russians would need to roll into Constantinople to enforce that, also the other side of the straits, even then teh British will blow a fuse because Russians in the Mediterranean is so not according to their plans you'd have people facepalming themselves for not supporting Germany and letting Russia become a superpower prematurely and putting them into a position where they can not be assaulted - Germany cut down to size, A-H gone and replaced by loyal Russian puppets, Straits in their hand etc.

I would only expect them to get free access, not full control of the Straits. But some concessions will have to be made, and the British probably won't be as strong to avoid making at least some concessions; though they'll definitely then help the Ottomans/Turkey resist any further Russian penetration and maybe even roll it back.

 

[Aphrodite]

Early victories are likely to be much less harsh than Brest Litovsk and Versailles were IOTL and even if Germany gets beaten in the West is still likely to make big gains in the east meaning a deal for status quo ante bellum is probably the outcome. Any gains Russia makes are likely to be at the expense of Austria Hungary since that's where her successes on the battlefield were.

Why would you thnk that? The speed iof the victory has little impact on the terms. It is the magnitude of the victory.

The Iran Iraqq War lasted neary a decade and ends with status quo ante bellum basically. The same in Korea

Some rather quick wars- the Franco-Prussian for example, result in pretty harsh terms The colonial warstended to be very short and the terms were usually annexation.

If the allies crush Germany the terms are likely to be very harsh even if the war is over in September 1914.

The competing interests of the allies will be the determining factor. Russia is more interested in destroying Austrian power than German. As no one would object, Austria is being dismembered with Russia, Italy, Romania and Serbia taking what they please

As for Germany, there are two options. Its power is either destroyed as in a Versailles like settlement or the y get off rather easily because it is in someone's interest to keep it strong. The French are likely to want to see it crushed, the Russians much less so. A strong Germany could prevent an Anglo-French anti-Russian alliance.

British interests are likely to be ignored in a short war scenario. The Germans aren't likely to care much about their colonies when the French and Russian armies are pouring into Germany The British lack an army to have any influence until 1916

 

[Thomas1195]

Why would you thnk that? The speed iof the victory has little impact on the terms. It is the magnitude of the victory.

The Iran Iraqq War lasted neary a decade and ends with status quo ante bellum basically. The same in Korea

Some rather quick wars- the Franco-Prussian for example, result in pretty harsh terms The colonial warstended to be very short and the terms were usually annexation.

If the allies crush Germany the terms are likely to be very harsh even if the war is over in September 1914.

The competing interests of the allies will be the determining factor. Russia is more interested in destroying Austrian power than German. As no one would object, Austria is being dismembered with Russia, Italy, Romania and Serbia taking what they please

As for Germany, there are two options. Its power is either destroyed as in a Versailles like settlement or the y get off rather easily because it is in someone's interest to keep it strong. The French are likely to want to see it crushed, the Russians much less so. A strong Germany could prevent an Anglo-French anti-Russian alliance.

British interests are likely to be ignored in a short war scenario. The Germans aren't likely to care much about their colonies when the French and Russian armies are pouring into Germany The British lack an army to have any influence until 1916

It depends on how big the victory was. If much of German soil is occupied, then the terms would be hard.

Besides, Britain would want to cut down the HSF, especially the BBs and submarine forces.