Russian victory in the Russo-Japanese War: Effects on WWI?

GauchoBadger · Mar 25, 2017

If Russia had defeated Japan in the Russo-Japanese War, then how does that affect geopolitics?
Is it true that Russia will keep its military unreformed due to being emboldened by a victory or is some reform inevitable?
Will WWI still spark like it did? If Russia remains focused in the far east, will they still come to Serbia's defense if the country is threatened?
Will Japan revert to secondary status, in an Ethiopia-like situation?

Carl Schwamberger · Mar 25, 2017

GauchoBadger said:
...
Is it true that Russia will keep its military unreformed due to being emboldened by a victory or is some reform inevitable?

Reform is inevitable. It could have taken a different course, particularly if a progressive general emerged and wen to the top of the Army.

Will WWI still spark like it did? If Russia remains focused in the far east, will they still come to Serbia's defense if the country is threatened?

Russia had been playing the Balkans game too long to drop the ball there.

Will Japan revert to secondary status, in an Ethiopia-like situation?

The Russo japanese war was not a all or nothing total war. It was a limited war & the stakes being gambled did not completely threaten Japans embryonic empire. Also the US goal in brokering a treaty was to retain a balance in that corner of asia. Absent some unlikely Russia wank its going to be much the same as OTL & the peace treaty.

JackLumber · Mar 25, 2017

Russia will appear to be able to project power in the east, could effect the dynamics of the entente

GauchoBadger · Mar 25, 2017

JackLumber said:
Russia will appear to be able to project power in the east, could effect the dynamics of the entente

That, or a neutral Japan in *WWI.

JackLumber · Mar 25, 2017

GauchoBadger said:
That, or a neutral Japan in *WWI.

Hmm doubtful ww1 was a low risk opportunity for Japan to expand its holdings, I don't see why why they would pass it up.

BBadolato · Mar 25, 2017

JackLumber said:
Russia will appear to be able to project power in the east, could effect the dynamics of the entente

Not really, this is assuming WW1 breaks out on schedule, it could practically butterfly away the Entente. France is backing Russia and Britain Japan, barring that it could also give Russia more of a foothold near then the British are comfortable with if a Japanese defeat prevents the Annexation of Korea in 1910.

A better Ruso-Japanese War for Russia keeps Nicholas's reputation more intact before, no there's 1904 Revolution or Bloody Sunday. However it If we want to play with the POD from the very outset of the war, we could have a non-hemophiliac Alexi, which could give more survivability to the Russian monarchy. There's no uncertain succession with a sick heir, and Alexandra doesn't come to rely on mystics like Rasputin so no loss of prestige or listing to the advice of quacks.

JackLumber · Mar 25, 2017

BBadolato said:
Not really, this is assuming WW1 breaks out on schedule, it could practically butterfly away the Entente. France is backing Russia and Britain Japan, barring that it could also give Russia more of a foothold near then the British are comfortable with if a Japanese defeat prevents the Annexation of Korea in 1910.

A better Ruso-Japanese War for Russia keeps Nicholas's reputation more intact before, no there's 1904 Revolution or Bloody Sunday. However it If we want to play with the POD from the very outset of the war, we could have a non-hemophiliac Alexi, which could give more survivability to the Russian monarchy. There's no uncertain succession with a sick heir, and Alexandra doesn't come to rely on mystics like Rasputin so no loss of prestige or listing to the advice of quacks.

A neutral Britain In world war 1 is terrible enough for the entente should they side against Russia and France it will be all kinds of bad for them.

I also wonder if growing Russian influence In Korea could cause Britain to move into Tibet.

BBadolato · Mar 25, 2017

JackLumber said:
A neutral Britain In world war 1 is terrible enough for the entente should they side against Russia and France it will be all kinds of bad for them.

I also wonder if growing Russian influence In Korea could cause Britain to move into Tibet.

That depends on what a Russian victory in the Russo-Japanese war does for China, but that I'm not sure about.

JackLumber · Mar 25, 2017

BBadolato said:
That depends on what a Russian victory in the Russo-Japanese war does for China, but that I'm not sure about.

I agree, the scale of the Russian victory will be important but China at this point time was mostly just bullied by the imperialist powers I don't see them doing anything against Russia should the Russians set up shop in Korea.

BooNZ · Mar 25, 2017

GauchoBadger said:
Will WWI still spark like it did? If Russia remains focused in the far east, will they still come to Serbia's defense if the country is threatened?

OTL Russia was not only focused on the far East - at the time it was pushing boundaries in almost every direction, including Persia the Ottomans and A-H. If the aura of Russian military strength survives the Russo Japanese war, then France is going to struggle to get Britain and Russia into the same tent. It would be interesting in 1908 if A-H still chooses to annex Bosnia-Herzegovina. If A-H proceeds with the annexation and Russia backs the Serbian call to arms, then the Entente (without Britain or Italy) is likely well beaten.

GauchoBadger · Mar 25, 2017

BooNZ said:
OTL Russia was not only focused on the far East - at the time it was pushing boundaries in almost every direction, including Persia the Ottomans and A-H. If the aura of Russian military strength survives the Russo Japanese war, then France is going to struggle to get Britain and Russia into the same tent. It would be interesting in 1908 if A-H still chooses to annex Bosnia-Herzegovina. If A-H proceeds with the annexation and Russia backs the Serbian call to arms, then the Entente (without Britain or Italy) is likely well beaten.

But could a russian victory against the japanese that makes Russia seem strong postpone or even butterfly away the bosnian annexation crisis?

BooNZ · Mar 25, 2017

GauchoBadger said:
But could a russian victory against the japanese that makes Russia seem strong postpone or even butterfly away the bosnian annexation crisis?

It's possible, although I understand OTL A-H got Russian sign-off before proceeding with the annexation - it was only after the fact that Russia changed tact and asserted it had been wronged in some way...