Russian victory in the Crimean War and the aftermath

[Tongera]

What pod would require Russia's victory in the Crimean War? I would assume that Sevastapol shouldn't fall and the Crimea isn't devastated, and the Russians got to defeat the Allied armies in the Crimea and it would help if the Russians can keep an advance on the Ottoman Empire in the Caucuses and the Balkans. I think it would also help if the Serbians and Bulgarians in the Balkans revolted, as that is what the Russians intended, but they didn't and if they did revolt, especially if the Russians can advance at the same time, then the Ottomans would be forced to spread their forces to deal with the rebellions.

I would also like to know about the aftermath of the Crimean War in the event of a Russian victory. What would Russia ask for, would the allies agree to it, would it weaken the Ottomans (i assume they would bear the brunt of any concessions of any kind), what affect would it have later on any Russian/Ottoman/British/French war and/or diplomacy?

Thanks for any potential answers.

 

[frlmerrin]

It is hard to imagine how exactly the Russians could actually win the Crimean war. I can quite easily imagine them throwing the alliance out of the Crimea. It is hard to imagine how they could stop the Royal Navy devastating the Black sea ports, the Baltic and the city that would become Leningrad, the ports of the sea of Azov, the settlements on the White sea, the far east, Nicoliev and Kamchatky-Petropavlovsk. Thus they could hold the Crimean forts and even advance on the Ottomans and still lose the war. The only way they could actually win is to have a navy that could match the RN and French navy combined and if they had that there would have been no Crimean war in the first place (but possibly a war over naval supremacy earlier).

 

[Tongera]

It is hard to imagine how exactly the Russians could actually win the Crimean war. I can quite easily imagine them throwing the alliance out of the Crimea. It is hard to imagine how they could stop the Royal Navy devastating the Black sea ports, the Baltic and the city that would become Leningrad, the ports of the sea of Azov, the settlements on the White sea, the far east, Nicoliev and Kamchatky-Petropavlovsk. Thus they could hold the Crimean forts and even advance on the Ottomans and still lose the war. The only way they could actually win is to have a navy that could match the RN and French navy combined and if they had that there would have been no Crimean war in the first place (but possibly a war over naval supremacy earlier).

I would imagine the Russians would have to defeat the Ottomans in the field, the Ottomans would sue for peace, then a conference would be held to decide the terms. I would figure the Allies would eventually give up if the Russians can defeat the Ottomans, depsite their naval power. The way i see it, the Russians would have to hold out then.

 

[yourworstnightmare]

A small butterfly is that a Russian victory would mean the Åland Islands never become demilitarized.

 

[Tongera]

A small butterfly is that a Russian victory would mean the Åland Islands never become demilitarized.

Effects of that?

 

[RGB]

With some luck the Allies can be defeated in Crimea, and certainly in the Caucasus the Russians had the upper hand the entire time, but the Allies' overwhelming naval power will prevent any Russian advances into the Balkans, completely. They will not cross the Danube, for sure.

So any rebellions would be premature and unsupported, although that might really change the post-war political attitudes of the Balkan nations towards the allies if they DID rebel and the allies chose to help the Turks.

As for any specific PODs? Balaklava's full of them. Have the Russians actually carry through with their planned attack and the Allies could be denied good siege positions.

Granted it might all be a waste anyway since the Russians need to take Yevpatoria to keep supplying reinforcements, but hey, there's another POD there for you.

It is hard to imagine how exactly the Russians could actually win the Crimean war. I can quite easily imagine them throwing the alliance out of the Crimea. It is hard to imagine how they could stop the Royal Navy devastating the Black sea ports, the Baltic and the city that would become Leningrad, the ports of the sea of Azov, the settlements on the White sea, the far east, Nicoliev and Kamchatky-Petropavlovsk. Thus they could hold the Crimean forts and even advance on the Ottomans and still lose the war. The only way they could actually win is to have a navy that could match the RN and French navy combined and if they had that there would have been no Crimean war in the first place (but possibly a war over naval supremacy earlier).

1. They didn't attempt to go for Petersbug at all, and I doubt they would. It's massively fortified and would make Sevastopol look easy, not to mention that bombarding Petersburg would be like bombarding London. Public opinion would be against them and the Russian population would smell Holy War in the air the way it didn't with OTL Crimea. They did awful against Sveaborg, what makes you think they'd do better against Kronstadt?
2. They failed in the Pacific; they'd need more assets there. Which means a much longer war.
3. They failed to do anything except shelling a monastery in the White Sea
4. They failed to take Taganrog and cut off Rostov as a supply base.

So it's not like the British didn't try what you suggested, it was just all wasted effort, and the press at home was acutely aware of that.

 

[Tongera]

With some luck the Allies can be defeated in Crimea, and certainly in the Caucasus the Russians had the upper hand the entire time, but the Allies' overwhelming naval power will prevent any Russian advances into the Balkans, completely. They will not cross the Danube, for sure.

So any rebellions would be premature and unsupported, although that might really change the post-war political attitudes of the Balkan nations towards the allies if they DID rebel and the allies chose to help the Turks.

As for any specific PODs? Balaklava's full of them. Have the Russians actually carry through with their planned attack and the Allies could be denied good siege positions.

Granted it might all be a waste anyway since the Russians need to take Yevpatoria to keep supplying reinforcements, but hey, there's another POD there for you.

Can ships actually go up the Danube and prevent the Russians from crossing? What if the Russians can enter Anatolia and keep going west, would that somehow draw the Allies there?

 

[RGB]

Can ships actually go up the Danube and prevent the Russians from crossing? What if the Russians can enter Anatolia and keep going west, would that somehow draw the Allies there?

Gunboats can, but the main point is that at the Danube Russia would face allies' much larger numbers and higher quality, supplied much better, in a great position, and flanked by the Allied navy.

Not gonna happen.

 

[Tongera]

Gunboats can, but the main point is that at the Danube Russia would face allies' much larger numbers and higher quality, supplied much better, in a great position, and flanked by the Allied navy.

Not gonna happen.

Then the Russians are going to have to go through the Caucuses and Anatolia then. Although they can't cross the Bosporous or the Dardanelles, they can wreck Anatolia pretty badly until a treaty can come in.

 

[yourworstnightmare]

Effects of that?

Probably not many on the large scale. Russia would have more time to fortify the islands before WW1 (if it happens), and thus have a somewhat better naval defence line. Also the city of Mariehamn would not be formed, and Skarpans would probably become the city on the islands. Also it could have butterflies on the status of the Åland Islands later, however there are many butterflies on the way. Do we have a WW1 if Russia wins the Crimean War?

 

[Tongera]

Probably not many on the large scale. Russia would have more time to fortify the islands before WW1 (if it happens), and thus have a somewhat better naval defence line. Also the city of Mariehamn would not be formed, and Skarpans would probably become the city on the islands. Also it could have butterflies on the status of the Åland Islands later, however there are many butterflies on the way. Do we have a WW1 if Russia wins the Crimean War?

WW1 would be different when Russia wins the Crimean War, just with different butterflies.

 

[Shnurre]

Well a PoD with faithfull Franz Joseph is thuogh rather unplausible can make Russia win Crimean war.

If a force that was held on Austrian border joins Russian forces in Crimea or marchs on Istanbul while Allies are occupied in Crimea or even does both in the same time( Russia held more forces agains Austria than it had versus Allies on all the fronts combined; the total number of troops on Austrian border was up to 200000 men ) than Russia has a huge advantage tomparing to OTL. This can be enough to make Russia the winner in the war ( I don't think Britain and France can field on Balcans much more forces than they had in OTL; remember that Sepoy Mutiny is comming).

 

[Tongera]

Well a PoD with faithfull Franz Joseph is thuogh rather unplausible can make Russia win Crimean war.

If a force that was held on Austrian border joins Russian forces in Crimea or marchs on Istanbul while Allies are occupied in Crimea or even does both in the same time( Russia held more forces agains Austria than it had versus Allies on all the fronts combined; the total number of troops on Austrian border was up to 200000 men ) than Russia has a huge advantage tomparing to OTL. This can be enough to make Russia the winner in the war ( I don't think Britain and France can field on Balcans much more forces than they had in OTL; remember that Sepoy Mutiny is comming).

The Ottomans can surrender then.

 

[Basileus444]

I don't know about specifics, but if the Russians keep (or throw) the allies out the Crimea and break through the Caucasus, they have a good chance of knocking the Ottomans out. They can't threaten Constantinople itself, but the Russians can really trash Anatolia and allied sea power can't stop that.

That should have interesting butterflies regarding Isma'il Pasha and Egypt. And it would be interesting to see what would happen if the Crimean war was still ongoing and the Indian Mutiny happened as IOTL.

 

[Tongera]

I don't know about specifics, but if the Russians keep (or throw) the allies out the Crimea and break through the Caucasus, they have a good chance of knocking the Ottomans out. They can't threaten Constantinople itself, but the Russians can really trash Anatolia and allied sea power can't stop that.

That should have interesting butterflies regarding Isma'il Pasha and Egypt. And it would be interesting to see what would happen if the Crimean war was still ongoing and the Indian Mutiny happened as IOTL.

They can thrash Anatolia and the Ottomans would have to surrender eventually, as they and the allies won't have the troops necessary to fight the Russians there and to hold back any potential crossing at the Danube and the Crimea all at the same time. Anatolia is where the power of the Ottomans mainly comes, in terms of money and mapower.

Britain would have to pull out of the Crimea War if it is still fighting when the Indian Mutiny breaks out, as India is more important than fighting for the Sick Man of Europe to the British Empire. That would leave the French and Sardinians, the Russians can definitely win then.

 

[RGB]

They can thrash Anatolia and the Ottomans would have to surrender eventually, as they and the allies won't have the troops necessary to fight the Russians there and to hold back any potential crossing at the Danube and the Crimea all at the same time. Anatolia is where the power of the Ottomans mainly comes, in terms of money and mapower.

The Balkans are actually more important, but they're also far more costly to keep down. But in any case the Turks wouldn't want a protracted war on their own soil.

Britain would have to pull out of the Crimea War if it is still fighting when the Indian Mutiny breaks out, as India is more important than fighting for the Sick Man of Europe to the British Empire. That would leave the French and Sardinians, the Russians can definitely win then.

The French were the driving force behind the war, as well as the more successful of the allies. I still say Russia is in trouble with just the French+Ottomans in it if they get too ambitious just because Britain left.

 

[Tongera]

The French were the driving force behind the war, as well as the more successful of the allies. I still say Russia is in trouble with just the French+Ottomans in it if they get too ambitious.

But they still had a chance to win. And now they got a better chance.

 

[RGB]

But they still had a chance to win. And now they got a better chance.

You know what would be really funny at that point?

Austria comes into the war.

On Russia's side. Because hell, why not. Britain's too busy, France stuck neck out for ally too far, Sardinia can't defend interests in Italy without pulling out of conflict. Austria wins in Italy, the Balkans, or both. Russia gets some concessions and maybe to keep its navy. Or get the Turks to pay for a new one.

 

[Tongera]

You know what would be really funny at that point?

Austria comes into the war.

On Russia's side. Because hell, why not. Britain's too busy, France stuck neck out for ally too far, Sardinia can't defend interests in Italy without pulling out of conflict. Austria wins in Italy, the Balkans, or both. Russia gets some concessions and maybe to keep its navy. Or get the Turks to pay for a new one.

It would be funny. I think if Austria and Russia works together, then they can attack into the Balkans and Anatolia. The Ottomans would probably be destroyed and have to give up a lot of land.

 

[RGB]

The Ottomans would probably be destroyed and have to give up a lot of land.

Easier said than done, and I don't think anyone wants LOTS of land. Russia wants protectorate over Christians, and access through the straits. After Sevastopol, also reparations. Everything else is gravy.

And of course if the Balkan Revolts happen at the same time Austria's and Russia's plans might be thrown into interesting confusion, to the point where they might have to go into damage control.

Anyway, don't want to steer conversation towards this timeline too far, it was just an idea.