Russian Revolution without World War I

[robertp6165]

Let's assume the following scenario...

Franz Ferdinand is assassinated on schedule in August 1914. But the war which results is a local war between Austria, Russia, and Serbia only...Germany, Britain, France, the Ottoman Empire and Italy stay out (I have a scenario in mind for how this happens, which is not important to the question at hand). Russia wins the war in late 1916 after the ATL equivalent of the Brusilov offensive crushes the Austrian army.

Would the Russian Revolution still happen? I assume it would not happen at the same time...probably it would be delayed somewhat by the euphoria which would follow the victory in the war. If the Revolution does happen, what form will it take? Would Lenin and the Bolsheviks end up in control as in OTL, or could something along the line of the social democratic/liberal coalition which carried out the February 1917 revolution in OTL prevail? Could the monarchy be preserved, perhaps with Grand Duke Mikhail as the new Tsar (assuming Tsarevitch Alexei is not chosen because he is too young or too infirm)?

 

[Alratan]

I think there's a good chance that you could end up with a Duma with a mostly constitutional Tzar. If the right people are in place this sort of thing could be done in the aftermath of a victory that would seem impossible weakness before.

 

[Tom_B]

I don't see why it would take Russia until 1916 to win. Conrad would be forced to be conservative in this scenario so Gnila Lipa and the Serbian mishaps are avoided but the Russians should be able to overpower the KuK Army within 6 months or less.

The treaty that results could be the Tsar's downfall. If Russia and the Serbs go crazy then Britain will again take a serious look at who is the greatest threat. Without a war the German Socialists could well cause a crisis in Germany resulting in Wilhelm being reduced in power. They might cutback on the naval race. This could result in a German/British rapprochment.

Still a Next War might be avoided. The historic Great War initially stimulated Russian heavy industry. Later on labor shortages emerged but a short war might actually be good for the Russian economy.

 

[1940LaSalle]

Absent a war entirely, I think there would have been a revolution at some point nonetheless. Don't forget that Alexis was a hemophiliac: all it would have required would have been some simple household accident--the sort of thing we shrug off after applying a Band-Aid--but this time the bleeding doesn't stop. The Tsarevitch dies, Rasputin is discredited entirely, and with Rasputin's influence removed, the public realizes the incompetence and weakness of the incumbent regime. To stave off the worst, the Grand Duke Nicholas, along with Count Witte, lead a palace revolution that forces Nicholas II and his brother Michael to abdicate in favor of the Grand Duke, but not before granting a sweeping constitutional reform.

Afterward, the now-deposed branch of the Romanovs is forced into exile--I'm thinking perhaps Spain, since I doubt whether any of the Scandinavian monarchies would touch them.

 

[Wendell]

Let's assume the following scenario...

Franz Ferdinand is assassinated on schedule in August 1914. But the war which results is a local war between Austria, Russia, and Serbia only...Germany, Britain, France, the Ottoman Empire and Italy stay out (I have a scenario in mind for how this happens, which is not important to the question at hand). Russia wins the war in late 1916 after the ATL equivalent of the Brusilov offensive crushes the Austrian army.

Would the Russian Revolution still happen? I assume it would not happen at the same time...probably it would be delayed somewhat by the euphoria which would follow the victory in the war. If the Revolution does happen, what form will it take? Would Lenin and the Bolsheviks end up in control as in OTL, or could something along the line of the social democratic/liberal coalition which carried out the February 1917 revolution in OTL prevail? Could the monarchy be preserved, perhaps with Grand Duke Mikhail as the new Tsar (assuming Tsarevitch Alexei is not chosen because he is too young or too infirm)?

An Austrian revolution is what would (might) happen. Regardless, Germany comes away as the big winner in any such scenario whereby Russia collapses unaliligned in peacetime.

 

[Anaxagoras]

The Russian Revolution in 1917 was triggered largely because of the disastrous performance of the Russian Army in World War I. Take that away (or replace it with success) and the immediate causes of the revolution are gone.

However, the fundamental issues of inequality, the effects of industrialization, rising political radicalism and an inflexible autocratic system remain. I think it is certain that some sort of political upheavel will take place sooner or later. hat form it will take, and whether it will be successful, is anyone's guess.

 

[Nicole]

An Austrian revolution is what would (might) happen. Regardless, Germany comes away as the big winner in any such scenario whereby Russia collapses unaliligned in peacetime.

Why? Everyone underestimates Austria-Hungary... the Russians, being a multi-ethnic state themselves, would have an interest in preventing a collapsing revolution in A-H, rather than promoting one (which happened OTL).

 

[Wendell]

Why? Everyone underestimates Austria-Hungary... the Russians, being a multi-ethnic state themselves, would have an interest in preventing a collapsing revolution in A-H, rather than promoting one (which happened OTL).

If we look at World War I, Austria ran its war like Italy ran its in World War II; they basically did what the Germans told them, because their command structure was inept, antiquated, or uninspiing.
Russia may be interested in preventing a revolution in Austria, but they may have their own problems to deal with. The Germans, on the other hand...

 

[Nicole]

If we look at World War I, Austria ran its war like Italy ran its in World War II; they basically did what the Germans told them, because their command structure was inept, antiquated, or uninspiing.
Russia may be interested in preventing a revolution in Austria, but they may have their own problems to deal with. The Germans, on the other hand...

They did what the Germans told them to because the Germans forced them too... And as for a revolution, let's look at some dates:

November 9, 1918 - Proclamation of German Republic, abdication of Wilhelm II and everyone else in Germany
November 11, 1918 - Abdication of Karl I of Austria.

Hm...

 

[Wendell]

They did what the Germans told them to because the Germans forced them too... And as for a revolution, let's look at some dates:

November 9, 1918 - Proclamation of German Republic, abdication of Wilhelm II and everyone else in Germany
November 11, 1918 - Abdication of Karl I of Austria.

Hm...

And Karl abdicated partly because anschluss was getting popular...

 

[Nicole]

And Karl abdicated partly because anschluss was getting popular...

And your point? Nicholas II was killed because Bolshevism was getting popular...

 

[Wendell]

And your point? Nicholas II was killed because Bolshevism was getting popular...

But Bolshevism wasn't a sure thing yet. Anschluss, like Bolshevism did prevail in OTL, eventually

 

[Nicole]

But Bolshevism wasn't a sure thing yet. Anschluss, like Bolshevism did prevail in OTL, eventually

And in both cases was temporary...

Without a complete collapse of the Empire in other ways, many Austrians will still look to glory within their own state- Anschluss was seen as the only way to prevent Austria from being a small unimportant country...

 

[Wendell]

And in both cases was temporary...

Without a complete collapse of the Empire in other ways, many Austrians will still look to glory within their own state- Anschluss was seen as the only way to prevent Austria from being a small unimportant country...

Austria-Hungary would not have survive long if it fought a war alone against Russia and wasn't quick to make peace. Yes, Russia was vast and more diverse, but Austria-Hungary has more people-and uncertain politics-in much less space. Not to mention that it was arguably the most backward country in Western Europe.

 

[robertp6165]

I don't see why it would take Russia until 1916 to win. Conrad would be forced to be conservative in this scenario so Gnila Lipa and the Serbian mishaps are avoided but the Russians should be able to overpower the KuK Army within 6 months or less.

A couple of reasons. 1) In the scenario I am working on, the Austro-Hungarian Army underwent reforms prior to the war which made it much better prepared for the war, whereas the Russian army did not; this is one reason why Austria pushes ahead for war even though not supported by Germany or any other major ally; and 2) Unlike OTL, the Austrians don't have an Italian front draining men from the main theatre.

But all that is irrelevant to the topic at hand, which is how a Russian Revolution would unfold...or whether it would unfold...in such a scenario.

 

[robertp6165]

I think there's a good chance that you could end up with a Duma with a mostly constitutional Tzar. If the right people are in place this sort of thing could be done in the aftermath of a victory that would seem impossible weakness before.

Absent a war entirely, I think there would have been a revolution at some point nonetheless. Don't forget that Alexis was a hemophiliac: all it would have required would have been some simple household accident--the sort of thing we shrug off after applying a Band-Aid--but this time the bleeding doesn't stop. The Tsarevitch dies, Rasputin is discredited entirely, and with Rasputin's influence removed, the public realizes the incompetence and weakness of the incumbent regime. To stave off the worst, the Grand Duke Nicholas, along with Count Witte, lead a palace revolution that forces Nicholas II and his brother Michael to abdicate in favor of the Grand Duke, but not before granting a sweeping constitutional reform.

I tend to agree that a revolution is probably inevitable, and possibly the most likely outcome, given a Russian victory in the war, would be a constitutional monarchy of some sort. I think Grand Duke Mikhail might be a better choice, than Grand Duke Nicholas, as Mikhail was a bit more liberal and actually seems to have supported reform in OTL. Grand Duke Nicholas was more conservative, IIRC.

The Russian Revolution in 1917 was triggered largely because of the disastrous performance of the Russian Army in World War I. Take that away (or replace it with success) and the immediate causes of the revolution are gone.

Not entirely. A large part of the cause of the revolution was the economic crisis which the war caused in Russia and the disruption of the Russian transport industry by the war, which caused food shortages in the cities. Indeed, the February Revolution which ousted the Tsar began with rallies against the food shortages more so than because of the war.

 

[Wendell]

And in both cases was temporary...

Without a complete collapse of the Empire in other ways, many Austrians will still look to glory within their own state- Anschluss was seen as the only way to prevent Austria from being a small unimportant country...

Anschluss was dissolved by force. Bolshevism fell ultimately short of full-scale, open conflict.

 

[Soyuz]

All depends how far will the western powers allow Russia to advance into the Empire... Galicia is taken for certain, then a culmination in Hungary? All the while Germany and the Ottomans twiddle their thumbs and show Britain just how bad Russia really is? Still, the Franco-Prussian conflict will have to be resolved at some point, while this time the Central powers loose Austria and the Entente looses Britain. Just because of that, it may force Italy and Japan to switch sides too. Either way Entente surely defeated, Russia breaks out into a revolution, but now, is it advantageous to the Germans to have a Bolshevik Russia? Probably not...

 

[Wendell]

If the Austrians are smart...

All depends how far will the western powers allow Russia to advance into the Empire... Galicia is taken for certain, then a culmination in Hungary? All the while Germany and the Ottomans twiddle their thumbs and show Britain just how bad Russia really is? Still, the Franco-Prussian conflict will have to be resolved at some point, while this time the Central powers loose Austria and the Entente looses Britain. Just because of that, it may force Italy and Japan to switch sides too. Either way Entente surely defeated, Russia breaks out into a revolution, but now, is it advantageous to the Germans to have a Bolshevik Russia? Probably not...

They will set up Galicia as an independent Polish kingdom to fight Russia for the rest of Poland.

 

[Tom_B]

But all that is irrelevant to the topic at hand, which is how a Russian Revolution would unfold...or whether it would unfold...in such a scenario.

You ever read Norman Stone's book on the Eastern Front in the Great War (one of the really underdone topics in military history)? He makes frequent references to conspiracies to make Archduke Nicholas Tsar but there is no mention of Michael. But Grey Wolf was always fond of Romanovs survive with Michael scenarios.

Stone's other intriguing point is that the Great War was initially good--very good-- for Russian heavy industry but later labor shortages arose as more men were drafted and that is when the wheels came off. With a demobilization in late 1916 the labor shortages are more than half rectified and things should get better in a hurry. Also with the Dardanelles open they can import goods and a victorious Russia should have tolerable credit problems.

So I would see Russia getting through the winter resource crisis and after that things actually look bright. If there is a downfall it's well down the road.

Anyway if you remain convinced of a 1917 revolution in a victorious Russia you might look at Sidney Reilly becoming a player.

Tom