Russian Revolution w/o WWI?

LordKalvert

Banned
The main point however is that Russia was heading for tousling times but perhaps not revolution. And it should be noted that wages were lower than in 1905. A point you miss is that the quote dons't argue revolution in 1914 but maybe later on and that Russia wasn't settled from 1905 as the Duma had no power and was dismissed twice for being too progressive(Despite most member being nobles). Also to note that the Tsar awarded unites that used violence against protesters! So tan original wages strike put down harshly had the potential to become political. And the upper class was becoming distance from the Tsar for his association with the sex addict Rasputin (murdered by nobles in 1916 in an attempt to save the Tsar's reputation.) So the cards weren't in his favor.

That the Duma had been dismissed twice without incident pretty much shows how little support in the country that institution really had

As for real wages, that is always a very difficult measurement. They probably had for St. Petersburg since it was the center of the metalworking industry and those workers were earning a huge amount of overtime in 1905 due to the pressing need of fulfilling orders for the Japanese War.

The wave of strikes that hit St. Petersburg in July 1914 was a short lived event, peaked at about 20% of workers (26% if you believe pravda) A lot had to do with some violence commited by the strikers- in particular the attacks on trams led the tram workers to refuse to go out without police protection. When the Cossacks escorted the trams, the workers returned

The strike was strongest in the metalworking plants (where workers were highly paid) and lowest in the textile industry (where they weren't)
 
That the Duma had been dismissed twice without incident pretty much shows how little support in the country that institution really had

As for real wages, that is always a very difficult measurement. They probably had for St. Petersburg since it was the center of the metalworking industry and those workers were earning a huge amount of overtime in 1905 due to the pressing need of fulfilling orders for the Japanese War.

The wave of strikes that hit St. Petersburg in July 1914 was a short lived event, peaked at about 20% of workers (26% if you believe pravda) A lot had to do with some violence commited by the strikers- in particular the attacks on trams led the tram workers to refuse to go out without police protection. When the Cossacks escorted the trams, the workers returned

The strike was strongest in the metalworking plants (where workers were highly paid) and lowest in the textile industry (where they weren't)

Well I think what was keeping the country in line where the Cossacks rather than lack of will to change anything. They were loyal because the land the Tsar gave them made them part of the elite.
 

LordKalvert

Banned
Well I think what was keeping the country in line where the Cossacks rather than lack of will to change anything. They were loyal because the land the Tsar gave them made them part of the elite.

The Cossacks are in rather dire straits as their culture was becoming impractical due to high population growth. They had serious land issues particularly with grazing. Finally, the military regulations on the Cossacks are quite severe- they had to provide their own horses for example

The country really was sparsely policed (the regulations called for only 1 police officer per 2000 rural residents) so fear isn't the main cause of loyalty
 
The Cossacks are in rather dire straits as their culture was becoming impractical due to high population growth. They had serious land issues particularly with grazing. Finally, the military regulations on the Cossacks are quite severe- they had to provide their own horses for example

The country really was sparsely policed (the regulations called for only 1 police officer per 2000 rural residents) so fear isn't the main cause of loyalty

But you have got to admit the Tsar wasn't a negotiator.
 
This subject interacts with how European politics play out more generally TTL. In OTL, Russia's leaders were somewhat hesitant to take their country into war, with a good number of the Tsar's advisors saying that it would risk bringing down the whole order. If Russia makes it to 1916 or 1917 without a major war, they'll have time to enact their military reforms; will they still be feel cautious about stress testing the Tsar's rule?
 

LordKalvert

Banned
This subject interacts with how European politics play out more generally TTL. In OTL, Russia's leaders were somewhat hesitant to take their country into war, with a good number of the Tsar's advisors saying that it would risk bringing down the whole order. If Russia makes it to 1916 or 1917 without a major war, they'll have time to enact their military reforms; will they still be feel cautious about stress testing the Tsar's rule?

The Russians had no real desire for war and were content to wait for Austria's internal collapse. Nothing in the record indicates that they were planning or seeking a war let alone one anytime soon
 
The Russians had no real desire for war and were content to wait for Austria's internal collapse. Nothing in the record indicates that they were planning or seeking a war let alone one anytime soon

That's the impression I get as well. So if Germany becomes more cautious following 1914, the chances for war breaking out in the following years (to 1920, say) are pretty low.
 
Russian Revolution would have been Butterflied if WW1 never Happened

Russia would have become a Constitutional Monarchy like UK
 
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