Russian Revolution fails.

Ok, I was wondering how history would have turned out if either The Russian Revolution failed or did not occur at all. Would it have had an effect on World War One? Would World War Two occur as it did in OTL? Is it possible for there to have been a Cold War between a Democratic USA and an Imperial Russia (this might not be ASB. After all Russia could still have become a super power, if they win WW2)?
 

Hnau

Banned
Yes, it would have had an effect on World War One. The Eastern Front wouldn't have collapsed nearly as bad. The front was doing fine until news came in that there was a revolution in Petrograd. Then, all the peasant-soldiers decided to jump on train-cars and horseback or merely go on foot back to their villages, where they expected their family would need help repartitioning the land of the nobles. Desertions everywhere, soldiers' councils turning on their officers... the Russian Army disintegrated overnight, especially in the northern areas closer to the revolution.

Without the Russian Revolution, then the Eastern Front continues to hold. They'll lose a lot, but they'll keep pressure on the Germans. No Spring Offensive. Germany collapses very soon, maybe summer 1918. However, how do you deny to the Russians their Revolution? Every month of attrition on the Eastern Front means more and more revolutionary pressure back home. No food, transportation isn't working, economy breaks down... the Russians would be quite the stoic warrior-poets if they did NOT revolt at the time they did. They were going through a lot.
 
Ok, I was wondering how history would have turned out if either The Russian Revolution failed or did not occur at all. Would it have had an effect on World War One? Would World War Two occur as it did in OTL? Is it possible for there to have been a Cold War between a Democratic USA and an Imperial Russia (this might not be ASB. After all Russia could still have become a super power, if they win WW2)?

I echo what Hnau said. The army was capable of holding the line (if not terribly much else) until the total breakdown of morale, and avoiding the revolution is very, very difficult.

Obviously WW2 won't occur as it did in OTL, because there presumably won't be a Poland. Why does everybody hate the butterflies? :mad:

I've often argued that at least part of Russia (Imperial of Soveit Russia's) superpower poential lies in iitz shear size and the enormous manpower and resources available to it, and that without the war and civil war modernity would have come about Stalin or not and made the country very formidable, but another thing I've often argued that a bipolar world of "superpowers" having a "cold war" is a consequence of very specific circumstances at the end of WW2.
 
Obviously WW2 won't occur as it did in OTL, because there presumably won't be a Poland.
By 1917 some kind of Poland was inevitable, even Tsarist government acknowledged some kind of restoration of the statehood, and both France and USA pressed in one way or another to resolve the issue. Also you had significant Polish military organisations, which would be a problem after WW1 if not contained. Politically it was an issue that needed resolution since it was a source of repeated conflict over the past century in Central Europe and too much of powder keg for exploitation.
Also it assumes tha WW2 was caused by existance of Poland, which is rather dubious.
 
By 1917 some kind of Poland was inevitable, even Tsarist government acknowledged some kind of restoration of the statehood, and both France and USA pressed in one way or another to resolve the issue. Also you had significant Polish military organisations, which would be a problem after WW1 if not contained. Politically it was an issue that needed resolution since it was a source of repeated conflict over the past century in Central Europe and too much of powder keg for exploitation.

Yes, I'm aware of all that, however my statement was meant to refer to a Poland as we know it. The Tsarists government made that declaration principally to knock the bottom off the Austro-Polish barrel (and they weren't terribly succesful, the Poles mostly favouring the CP until the Oath Crisis) and of course for the benefit of France, and generally avoided implementing anything much. In any case the new Poland was to remain closely associated with Russia.

Now, as I said this scenario is unlikely to the point of impossibility. If the war continues into 1917 with no end in sight and everything seems much like OTL, there was going to be a revolution. However in the effectivly impossible scenario of a Tsarist government staggering on until the was is resolved in the west, the Russians are certainly got going to concede territory and will probably help themselves to at least Galicia.

Now, things will have to change, the declaration will have to be at least acknowledged, but Poland as a Russian autonomy or dependency is a completely differant thing from the Second Republic. To name but one obvious point of dictinction, you can't partition it with Russia. Poland may well exist in some form, but what I meant by my statement was that it will, like almost everywhere else (not least Germany) be so differant that "WW2 like OTL" will be quite simply impossible.

I question your conclusion about the military organisations. The Poles in Russia had since 1863 developed the notion of propagating the "nation without the state" through cultural activities, which was the program of Endecja, and in Great Poland the Polish national movement's principal focus was again on cultural concerns, and also land ownership. Terrorism wasn't going to help anyone, and the only person who had ever advocated it was Pilsudski, who had in 1905 been fighting more against Endecja than the Russians, his Polish worker's revolution having failed to materliase. By 1914, his military oragnisations in Galicia were intended to be precisely what they became, the nucleus of an Austro-Polish volunteer conventional army, as Pilsudski anticipated the war. I sincerely doubt they'd have embarked on a violent peacetime campaign, and certainly that would have been the last thing Dmowski needed, and would likely have shattered their delicate collaboration with Austrian authorities.

Also it assumes tha WW2 was caused by existance of Poland, which is rather dubious.

Obviously the causes were infinitely more complex and numerous however you can't deny that in the absence of a Second Polish Republic the war "as in OTL" simply cannot happen.
 
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The Tsarists government made that declaration principally to knock the bottom off the Austro-Polish barrel (and they weren't terribly succesful, the Poles mostly favouring the CP until the Oath Crisis
Do you have a source on that ?
To my understanding I don't think you are correct, most Poles supported Entente-the Polish legions in France and Russia were always a on huge scale bigger then those in Austria. And the support for German Empire was so fringe that it can be dismissed.
and in Great Poland the Polish national movement's principal focus was again on cultural concerns, and lso land ownership.
The Sokol was very active in Great Poland, and it was the backbone of the successfull military organisation behind the uprising of 1918.
the Russians are certainly got going to concede territory and will probably help themselves to at least Galicia.
As far as my limited knowledge allows to recall they were only interested in annexing East Galicia to Russia. Western part wouldn't face opposition of annexation into Polish state.
Now, things will have to change, the declaration will have to be at least acknowledged, but Poland as a Russian autonomy or dependency is a completely differant thing from the Second Republic.
Still that was not the essence of your statement. Thanks for the clarification. A Poland in event of surviving Russian Empire, would likely be a federated entity, joined military with Russia at urging of France and Britain concerned about German revival. It would most likely consist of Congress Poland, Greater Poland, parts of Upper Silesia and most of West Galicia. Without Soviets the pressure to acquire an outlet to the sea would be smaller, although I can see Polish parts of Corridor going to Poland. The end result would in fact be better for Poland, as without the Eastern Kresy it would be a far more industralised country, with less hostile minorites it fought in OTL. Also it would have continued access to Russian market, rather then being fought economically by Soviet Russia as OTL.
The downside is that it would have to be ruled by opressive regime to counter eastern claims by Pilsudski group, which would engage in violent opposition. Endecja would acquire that role, as it was the faction that could enjoy support from Russia. For populism(and to counter the eastern demands) they would likely press claims on further parts of Germany claiming more Piast territories.

I would guess that due to pro-Russian tendencies Czechoslovakia would engage in friendly relations and possibly alliance with Russia to counter German and Austrian-Hungarian threats.

In the same way I see Yugoslavia and Bulgariaallyingthemself to Russian Empire.

In time perhaps Britain would start seeing Russia as threat to its interests and support revival of Germany.
Another point would be that RE and Poland could press for emigration of Jews which would destabilize situation in British Palestine.
 
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Do you have a source on that ?
To my understanding I don't think you are correct, most Poles supported Entente-the Polish legions in France and Russia were always a on huge scale bigger then those in Austria. And the support for German Empire was so fringe that it can be dismissed.

It depends on the time (note that I said "until the Oath crisis") and the specific group of Poles. Endecja was obviously broadly pro-Russian for as long as this was practicable, but the military movement was until said crisis pro-CP. Pilsudski, it's leader, had as his strategu the defeat of Russia, then the defeat of Germany, which of course was how it went.

The Oath Crisis changed things because of Ludendorff's supreme tactlessness combined with the "defeat Russia" phase having been basically implemented, and from that point the military movement supported France, however that's two discreet times. It wasn't a matter of comparing the pro-French and pro-Austrian constituency at any individual time: practically the whole military movement with only fringe exceptions was first Austrophil and then Francophil in accordance with Pilsudski's plans.

Were there any "Polish Legions" in Russia? There were Polish troops because Russia had a mass-conscript army, obviously, and on the civil side there was Endecja, but given what Pilsudski and Dmowski thought of eachother I think we can say that that had little to do with the "Polish Legions" organised in Galicia before the war.

The Sokol was very active in Great Poland, and it was the backbone of the successfull military organisation behind the uprising of 1918.

Sokol is precisely the sort of nation-without-a-state cultural organisation I was referring to. It played a big role in '18 because in the year, exceptional circumstances brought on by the war made a sucessful rising possible. Terrorism against the unchallenged power of the German state would have been supremely counterproductive, and if 1863 wasn't enough proof, in this timeline the Dashnags have probably met the same messy end.

As far as my limited knowledge allows to recall they were only interested in annexing East Galicia to Russia. Western part wouldn't face opposition of annexation into Polish state.

They wanted to annex the east as governates, and the west into the Polish autonomy they would establish (really, "state" is pretty optimistic: as I said, the Declaration was a pragamatic gesture. The best-case scenario for Dmowski would be something Finlandish, which amdittedly be called a state but was no Second Polish Republic). The reason provisional civil authorities were only established in the east was because the west wasn't occupied for any meaningful among of time (Krakow is itself was never in much danger).
 
Were there any "Polish Legions" in Russia?
Yes. The Pulawy Legion, later reformed into wider Polish units in Russian Army.
Although I don't know if the Blue Army in France wasn't bigger.
They wanted to annex the east as governates, and the west into the Polish autonomy they would establish (really, "state" is pretty optimistic: as I said, the Declaration was a pragamatic gesture. The best-case scenario for Dmowski would be something Finlandish, which amdittedly be called a state but was no Second Polish Republic).
Well the desires of each side need to be weighted against realities of situation, regardless if the Revolution fails, Russia is still in pretty bad situation by 1917 and unlikely to go out of the war unchanged.

Still like I said I would envision a bloc of countries aligned to Russia such as Yugoslavia, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia and Poland.

practically the whole military movement with only fringe exceptions was first Austrophil and then Francophil in accordance with Pilsudski's plans
That is incorrect, the Blue Army in France was the work of Dmowski and Endecja, it wasn't part of Pilsudski's faction.
 
Still that was not the essence of your statement. Thanks for the clarification. A Poland in event of surviving Russian Empire, would likely be a federated entity, joined military with Russia at urging of France and Britain concerned about German revival. It would most likely consist of Congress Poland, Greater Poland, parts of Upper Silesia and most of West Galicia. Without Soviets the pressure to acquire an outlet to the sea would be smaller, although I can see Polish parts of Corridor going to Poland. The end result would in fact be better for Poland, as without the Eastern Kresy it would be a far more industralised country, with less hostile minorites it fought in OTL. Also it would have continued access to Russian market, rather then being fought economically by Soviet Russia as OTL.

Of course, to say it's "better for Poland" is to ignore the opinion of people in Wilno and Lvov. I like the Second Republic boundaries. Anyway, I'd anticipate something like the DoW border, but probably not Upper Silesia. Britain wanted Germany to get the whole place OTL, and we're going to be a lot less easily reconciled to the idea of hanind one of Germany's principal industrial areas over to Russia, as opposed to a buffer state against it.

The downside is that it would have to be ruled by opressive regime to counter eastern claims by Pilsudski group, which would engage in violent opposition. Endecja would acquire that role, as it was the faction that could enjoy support from Russia. For populism(and to counter the eastern demands) they would likely press claims on further parts of Germany claiming more Piast territories.

How popular would crazy-nutballs nationalism actually be? Besides, the Russians probably wouldn't smile on such sentiments. Pilsudski's and Dmowski's rivalry will certainly be important, though.

I would guess that due to pro-Russian tendencies Czechoslovakia would engage in friendly relations and possibly alliance with Russia to counter German and Austrian-Hungarian threats.

Austro-Hungarian? Czechoslovakian? I rather think the one precludes the other.

In the same way I see Yugoslavia and Bulgariaallyingthemself to Russian Empire.

Bulgaria is going to ally with anyone who can help it with its frantic irredentism. Given Sazonov's schemes, that might turn out to be Russia, but if might not.

In time perhaps Britain would start seeing Russia as threat to its interests and support revival of Germany.

It's always bene my opinion that Russia's status as a country the size of a continet would upset the balance once it attained modernity, communism or no.

Another point would be that RE and Poland could press for emigration of Jews which would destabilize situation in British Palestine.

But surely, assuming Britain doesn't end up favouring the Jewsih side, they can just impose immigration quotas?
 
but the military movement was until said crisis pro-CP
Actually I found out that this is not the case-the first Polish unit in WW1 that fought was "Bayonne Legion" formed in France and fighting for Entente.

Of course, to say it's "better for Poland" is to ignore the opinion of people in Wilno and Lvov.
It would fit Dmowski, people there were supporters of Pilsudski, so he would cut off his political opposition.

I'd anticipate something like the DoW border, but probably not Upper Silesia. Britain wanted Germany to get the whole place OTL, and we're going to be a lot less easily reconciled to the idea of hanind one of Germany's principal industrial areas over to Russia,
Well there is going to be uprising there anyway, and without the war with Bolsheviks in the East Poles are going to concentrate far more effort and support to gain those territories. Also Sazonov definetely mentioned Upper Silesia as part of Russian controlled Poland
How popular would crazy-nutballs nationalism actually be? Besides, the Russians probably wouldn't smile on such sentiments.
Depends on who is running Germany. Dmowski certainly was in ok relations with a fair range of Russian conservatives when he was in Duma.

Austro-Hungarian? Czechoslovakian? I rather think the one precludes the other.
I don't get what you mean ? Czechoslovakia in OTL was afraid of both of Austrian or Hungarian attempts of revival.

Bulgaria is going to ally with anyone who can help it with its frantic irredentism.
Bulgaria had traditional good relations with Russia.

But surely, assuming Britain doesn't end up favouring the Jewsih side, they can just impose immigration quotas?
They can do what they want, but still this would be problematic situation caused by Russian bloc.
 
Yes. The Pulawy Legion, later reformed into wider Polish units in Russian Army.
Although I don't know if the Blue Army in France wasn't bigger.

Can you tell me more about this? I've never encountered it before. Nevertheless, it would be logical for Polish conscripts to be consolidated into Polish units after the Declaration, but that doesn't mean there was a pre-war "Legion" movement in the Galician sense. Was there?

Well the desires of each side need to be weighted against realities of situation, regardless if the Revolution fails, Russia is still in pretty bad situation by 1917 and unlikely to go out of the war unchanged.

I consider it essentially impossible for the Tsarist goverenment to survive 1917. The scenario is hypothetical, really?

Still like I said I would envision a bloc of countries aligned to Russia such as Yugoslavia, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia and Poland.

I'd expect more pragmatism. Yugoslavia will work with anyone who shares its interests, principally "Italy sucks boo chiz", and could well co-operate with a German regime. Bulgaria, as I said, will sell itself to the highest bidder.

That is incorrect, the Blue Army in France was the work of Dmowski and Endecja, it wasn't part of Pilsudski's faction.

Re-checking sources, I'd gotten by dates in a muddle and considerably over-estimated the extent to which the Blue Army was formed from deserters who had formerly been working for the CP, however this all goes back to an offhand remakr I made to the effect that the Declaration didn't wholly succeed in foiling Austo-Polonism, which is a remark I'll stand by.

Actually I found out that this is not the case-the first Polish unit in WW1 that fought was "Bayonne Legion" formed in France and fighting for Entente.

By "the military movement", I referred to Pilsudski's movement, the most prominent un the earlier stage of the war.

It would fit Dmowski, people there were supporters of Pilsudski, so he would cut off his political opposition.

True, but the way you phrased yourself indicated that that was your opinion and not Roman Dmowski's.

Well there is going to be uprising there anyway, and without the war with Bolsheviks in the East Poles are going to concentrate far more effort and support to gain those territories. Also Sazonov definetely mentioned Upper Silesia as part of Russian controlled Poland

Well, it depends on the precise scenario. Any scenario for a Tsarist victory which is actually plausible had victory in late '16 at the latest, and the one I'm toying with for my TL involved German forces in a much better shape and Germany better able to negotiate terms. Whereas if we're in the strange hypothetical of Tsarist victor in '18, you're probably right.

Depends on who is running Germany. Dmowski certainly was in ok relations with a fair range of Russian conservatives when he was in Duma.

But what I mean is that Russia is in all thinsg pragmatic and if it's aiming for good relations with Germany, it will have no time for Dmowski making a liability of himself.

I don't get what you mean ? Czechoslovakia in OTL was afraid of both of Austrian or Hungarian attempts of revival.

Ah, you mean the revanchism of the Austrians and also the Hungarians, not the revanchism of the Hapsburg monarchy!

Bulgaria had traditional good relations with Russia.

I'll have to question that. In 1912, Russia has been sternly telling Bulgaria off for getting too near the Straits, and going back earlier much of Bulgaria's earlier independent history has Bulgarian politicians trying to preserve the country's independence from Russian generals. Russia spoke out angrily against Bulgaria's annexation of Eastern Rumelia in 1885.

They can do what they want, but still this would be problematic situation caused by Russian bloc.

And?
 
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In one of my timeline, the Russian Revolution fails and the die hard communists left over move to Persia which eventually becomes red.

but my PoD is before the RR even starts.
 
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