Russian Republic survives Civil war

Zeldar155

Banned
Basicly, What would happen if the Russian Republic survived the Civil war?
Also, Any possiblites how it WOULD survive?
 
How it can survive:
-Kerensky stays in power by launching an preventive strike against the Bolsheviks by arresting their leaders and cracking down on their militas.
Might still lead to an civil war, but this would be one between an rebublican gouverment and the Bolsheviks.

-Kerenski stays in power because the First World War ends earlier or his troops are more sucessful

-Massive Entente intervention restors the Republic

-Whites win the civil war but for some reason fail to install a monarch. After a few years the military dictatorship hands over power / is overthrown and the republic is back.


Consequences:
I could imagine an economic development more or less similar to that of Brazil (most likely more succesful as Russia has more resources).

How Russia would develop politaly is hard to predict (social-democratic or leaping back into conservativism?)

Maybe the most important: Russia would be considered a member of the victourious Entente and present at Versailles. This should lead to an completly different Eastern Europe.

Worst case would be a collapse into warlordism like China
 
The only active Republic was under Kerensky, before the October Revolution.

The Kornilov Affair, if Kornilov was coming to protect the Kerensky government rather than seize power himself (this is a controversial topic), if it ended differently, could have prevented the October Revolution.
 

Lukkonle

Banned
That's good for Central and Eastern Europe since one of the major markets they traded with won't collapse or close down;for instance Soviet Union ended its trade with Poland which was catastrophic economically for former Russian Polish provinces. Even if there would be economic rivalry and competition, it wouldn't reach the levels of OTL.
 
That's good for Central and Eastern Europe since one of the major markets they traded with won't collapse or close down;for instance Soviet Union ended its trade with Poland which was catastrophic economically for former Russian Polish provinces. Even if there would be economic rivalry and competition, it wouldn't reach the levels of OTL.

Which was Kerenskis stance on polish independence?
The provisional goverment continued the war because they were unwilling to agree to Germanies territorial demands. They might have been not very keen to grand indipendence to anybody.
 

Lukkonle

Banned
Which was Kerenskis stance on polish independence?
The provisional goverment continued the war because they were unwilling to agree to Germanies territorial demands. They might have been not very keen to grand indipendence to anybody.
Provisional government promised a free Poland made from territories where Poles were majority in proclamation made on 30 March 1917 which would be united by military alliance with Russia. Those would probably would be made from Congress Poland, Western Galicia, Greater Poland and as much Upper Silesia and Pomerania as Poles would be able to take(although they would take more without Bolshevik threat in the East).
In that it wasn't different from Tsarist designs which viewed close integration of Polish territories as mistake and promised a long reaching autonomy(as well as former territories taken in partitions by Austria and Russsia).
Essentially by WW1 majority of policymakers in Russia were of the opinion that some sort of autonomy for Poland was in order, and that it drained Russian resources too much to keep as integral part of the Empire.

Also without Bolsheviks Pilsudski doesn't get the power he had,and Russia will prefer to deal with representatives of Polish Circle from the Russian Duma who already were important members of Polish National Committee in OTL(Poles consituted 53 out 499 Duma members in 1906 for example so they were quite visible group).
 
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yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Basicly, What would happen if the Russian Republic survived the Civil war?
Also, Any possiblites how it WOULD survive?
Easiest way: The Civil War never happens, Bolsheviks and Reactionaries actively crushed by Kerenski (hard to pull of but easier than the alternative).

Really hard way: Whites win the Civil War, and Russia stays a progressive republic. For this you need to wank the Provisional Government to make the generals respect them. Also you need to get the White generals to actually cooperate instead of all going solo. You need to get the peasants to consider the Whites the lesser evil, instead of the Reds. You need to get a more effective Entente intervention, without it actually hurting the White's image, as it did OTL. You need to make the Whites less proud, and have them recognize the secession of Finland, Poland and the Baltic States, so those countries actually would care to help the White against a common enemy. (You see why this way is hard). You could check up on the Czech. Legion too, since they were the part of the White Army that actually functioned as it should.
 
Consequences [of the survival of the Russian Republic after WWI}:
I could imagine an economic development more or less similar to that of Brazil (most likely more successful as Russia has more resources).

Hm, my guess is that there is no industrial great leap forward in the 30's. Without the leap, Barbarossa succeeds easily and Russian, Ukrainian, etc., are no longer written.

Maybe the most important: Russia would be considered a member of the victorious Entente and present at Versailles. This should lead to an completely different Eastern Europe.

I don't know about a completely different Eastern Europe: the creation of the "new" Eastern Europe states after WWI was due to political forces independent of the collapse of the Russian Empire.



Worst case would be a collapse into warlordism like {pre-WWII}China

Definitely possible.
 
Hm, my guess is that there is no industrial great leap forward in the 30's. Without the leap, Barbarossa succeeds easily and Russian, Ukrainian, etc., are no longer written.

With no October Revolution, Nazi Germany might not even exist, let alone invade Russia.
 

elder.wyrm

Banned
Hm, my guess is that there is no industrial great leap forward in the 30's.

Russia was going to industrialize regardless, but the path of that industrialization is going to be different. Probably somewhat less heavy industry oriented towards supplying the army (depending on how exactly the Republic deals with the military) and more emphasis on light industry and consumer goods for the peasants.
 
Well.... One thing is for sure the death of the royal family is butterflied away. Tsar Nicky most likely remains imorisoned in comfortable living quarters by Kerensky. In fact during the later years, Kerenski grew close with the Tsar, in fact Kerenski tried to save the Tsar but due to bumbling by the monarchists, and the selfishness of Maria Rasputin and her Husband( forgot his name) They delayed the escape so the royal family was captured and taken to eklattesberg where they were executed by the Bolsheviks, maybe Nicolas doesnt remain n power but perhaps we could see a contitutional goverment where the Tsar is a figurehead like England's king. This will butterfly away the Revoulution, stalin, communism saving over 100 million lives, because Zedong does not rise to power, Khemer rouge, Pol pot, ho chi min, sung do not attain prominence
 
With no October Revolution, Nazi Germany might not even exist, let alone invade Russia.

The Nazis might be called something else, but there will still be a big revanchist party aching to settle scores from WWI. The German military will back that party, and then WWII begins.
 

Lukkonle

Banned
The German military will back that party, and then WWII begins.
If Russia isn't isolated like Soviet Union, Germany won't have a place to train its troops or develop weapons. Since it is likely that both Czechoslovakia and Poland would find themselves in Russian sphere of influence, than it would be a rather localised war. While France might join in to tip the balance, Britain might very well ignore this.
 
Russia was going to industrialize regardless, but the path of that industrialization is going to be different. Probably somewhat less heavy industry oriented towards supplying the army (depending on how exactly the Republic deals with the military) and more emphasis on light industry and consumer goods for the peasants.

Yes but if you put more emphasis on light industry and consumer goods, then you have less tanks to meet Barbarossa. Plus the total industry that a republic builds will definitely be less and probably a lot less than what was built in our time lime. Bukharin et al in the Communist party wanted to slow things down to minimize the pain to civilians, but was overruled by Stalin and eventually executed in the purges.
 

Lukkonle

Banned
Yes but if you put more emphasis on light industry and consumer goods, then you have less tanks to meet Barbarossa.
And where will Germany get the resources to make those tanks without Soviet Union to supply them and without a place to train the soldiers?
 
If I may suggest it--a good starting point is to avoid having Kerenski getting into power in the first place, seeing as his greatest talent was always self-promotion...
 

Typo

Banned
Yes but if you put more emphasis on light industry and consumer goods, then you have less tanks to meet Barbarossa. Plus the total industry that a republic builds will definitely be less and probably a lot less than what was built in our time lime. Bukharin et al in the Communist party wanted to slow things down to minimize the pain to civilians, but was overruled by Stalin and eventually executed in the purges.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Left_communism
He also killed the people who originally proposed industrializing the Soviet Union by squeezing the peasantry like Grigory Zinoviev and Lev Kamenev by allying with Bukharin et al and pushing them out of power first. Without Stalin the Soviet Union probably would have industrialized anyway along his lines by other people

Also, without Stalin, the purges almost certainly doesn't happen, which means that the Soviet Union probably isn't going to -need- the industry he built to win.
 

Typo

Banned
And where will Germany get the resources to make those tanks without Soviet Union to supply them and without a place to train the soldiers?
The Weimar Republic wasn't building the armies and the Nazis built their armies long before the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact.
 

Lukkonle

Banned
The Weimar Republic wasn't building the armies
Of course it was. Weimar Republic was very strongly engaged in military cooperation with Soviet Union.
http://www.feldgrau.com/articles.php?ID=23

[SIZE=-1]In short, German bases operating in the Soviet Union were to be primarily used for R&D efforts, tactical training, personnel evaluation, etc, in those disciplines which were expressly prohibited for Germany by the Versailles treaty. In return for these privileges, Germany would allow the Red Army to conduct military exercises alongside the Reichswehr and it would also agree to share industrial and military technology advances as applicable. The Soviet Union agreed to the above cited stipulations.

By 1924, a Moscow Center office had been opened by the Reichswehr in Moscow. In March of 1924, the Russians approached the Germans to see which types of industrial capabilities could be quietly transferred to the Soviet Union. Could the Albatros Werke build airplanes in the Soviet Union; could Blohm and Voss build submarines, could Krupp build ammunition production plants, etc.

Co-operation was supposed to be a two-way street. As German military units were gaining experiences in the Soviet Union, a number of Soviet military technology experts and military officers were being secretly trained in Germany. However, in reality, the Germans took far more from the Soviets than they were willing to give in return. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=-1]German Bases in the Soviet Union 1922-1933: In 1926, the Germans established a Panzerschule named Kama in Kazan. It was to teach both the practical and the theoretical. By 1929, the basic infrastructure had been built at the base and the first Panzers started arriving; six 23-ton tanks (BMW engines; 75mm main gun) and three 12-ton tanks armed with 37mm guns. The Soviet Army gave the Reichswehr a number of British Carden-Lloyd light tanks. In return for those, Germany provided the Soviet Union with a number of industrial and manufacturing tools the Soviets were not yet capable of fabricating. General Lutz of the Reichswehr was the Commanding Officer of the Motor Transport Inspection Nr. 6. One of the schools most famous teachers was Heinz Guderian. No German uniforms were worn; only civilian clothing was permitted, though on occasion, the Soviets who trained there as well let the Germans borrow their uniforms for a while.

In terms of aviation matters, the following approximate timetable applied: In 1921 Germans worked on establishing aviation manufacturing capabilities in the Soviet Union. In 1924, German personnel and German material support built the Lipetsk facility. From 1925 to 1927, German pilots (old and new) received refresher courses based on the existing flight school curriculum. Both pilots and instructors were familiarized with equipment and with flight strategies/tactics. In 1926, Reichswehr officers were trained to become pilots and flight leaders. In 1928, Jungmärke (young pilots) were now accepted into the training program. This lasted until 1933. The aerial observation program was started, but dropped in 1930. Numerous technical innovations in military aviation were also tested and evaluated while battle strategies and tactics evolved. In 1933 the Lipetsk school was closed.


[/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]The German facility for chemical warfare development issues in the Soviet Union was code-named Tomka. This base was located near Podosinky (Ivshchenkovo) in 1926 (in the Samara Region of the Volga). The location was not by chance. The base would need to draw on German speaking individuals for many support functions thus regions close to German colonies in the Soviet Union were always high on the site-selection list of the Reichswehr.

During the months of August and September of 1923, the German company of GEFU (Gesellschaft für Förderung gewerblicher Unternehmungen) created a joint-venture company with its Soviet counterpart, Bersol. Two headquarters were created; one in Berlin and one in Moscow. In 1925, GEFU became WIKO (Wirtschaftskontor).

The Germans brought in many chemical warfare experts and established a very comprehensive CW program there. In May of 1926, the first batch of gas (diphosgene) was ready. Large-scale tests were conducted near Luga. Within a short period of time, many other types of gasses were also being produced at Tomka (coded yellow cross, blue cross, green cross, etc.) [/SIZE]

Just three samples-there is a lot more in the link I provided.
 
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Well.... One thing is for sure the death of the royal family is butterflied away. Tsar Nicky most likely remains imorisoned in comfortable living quarters by Kerensky. In fact during the later years, Kerenski grew close with the Tsar, in fact Kerenski tried to save the Tsar but due to bumbling by the monarchists, and the selfishness of Maria Rasputin and her Husband( forgot his name) They delayed the escape so the royal family was captured and taken to eklattesberg where they were executed by the Bolsheviks, maybe Nicolas doesnt remain n power but perhaps we could see a contitutional goverment where the Tsar is a figurehead like England's king. This will butterfly away the Revoulution, stalin, communism saving over 100 million lives, because Zedong does not rise to power, Khemer rouge, Pol pot, ho chi min, sung do not attain prominence

I just had one of those weird moments where reality shifted - I was going to ask "Who the Hell is Maria Rasputin?!" but thought I'd look it up first and found that someone has inserted her into the timeline! She never used to exist! Its the Battle of the Philippine Sea all over again...

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