Russian reintervention in Afghanistan

Say the Union of Sovereign States is successfully or an alt Successor state that retains most of the Soviet Union survives.

Would a limited Russian reintervention in Afghanistan be possible during the 1990s or early 2000s to prop up either the communist government or if it fails the Northern Alliance.

What would be the impact of a Russian reintervention in Afghanistan
 
Last edited:

Khanzeer

Banned
Say the Union of Sovereign States is successfully or an alt Successor state that retains most of the Soviet Union survives.

Would a limited Russian reintervention in Afghanistan be possible during the 1990s or early 2000s to prop up either the communist government or if it fails the Northern Alliance.

What would be the impact of a Russian reintervention in Afghanistan
Probably will be by proxy militias and arms exports ,not boots on the ground
 

Khanzeer

Banned
Which proxies ?

What about a Syrian type intervention ?
Well dostum has a history of pro Soviet sympathies

Syrian type is primarily air support, that they can do with bases inside Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.No need to cross the border
 
I have been actually thinking of a timeline involving a surviving USSR but my involves them more weathering 1988 to 1992. Preferably minus Gorbachev who wasn’t the most competent leader or reformer like some in the west like to make him out to be. The Berlin Wall and Eastern Bloc still falls and Soviet Union stays together but very barely. After fall of Eastern Bloc they might have to do a immediate show of force in some of the SSRs just to keep people from breaking away. The 90s are still going to be tough but this is where you might see Soviet Union modernize and reform itself a good bit. More economically then anything. They probably disregard many actual communist beliefs regarding economics more so then even otl China. They become more like state capitalism then communism. The problem with communism in a big country especially when it is educated it is hard to provide for everyone which isn’t too much of an issue if they are uneducated poor masses who can’t do or say much but Soviet Union actually had a lot of skilled and educated people all round. They aren’t like China or Russian Empire anymore. Economic reforms was arguably needed before political and social ones. That was Gorbachev biggest mistake.

But a surviving USSR would create many interesting situations and talking points once 911 happens or something similar in the US. Let’s say US still has gulf war like otl. This lead to otl reactions by Bid Laden and Islamic fanatics. The USSR used the gulf war as opportunity to go full 1956 in the SSRs to prevent dissolution and collapse. They get a lot of international criticism but US is distracted and it’s still the USSR even if they look weak you don’t want to test your luck with a nation that has nukes and looks like it is becoming desperate. Soviet Union is also trying to be as friendly with the west as possible right now in regards to almost everything else just to get them off their back about human rights violations that are taking place to preserve the Union. Nothing like Stalin purges. More like the ones in China after Mao and people getting thrown under the bus to save the USSR face or being used as scapegoats. The Soviet Union will be dealing with too many domestic issues in 90s to project but Afghanistan will still be on the USSR border which does open up possible domestic issues especially with unrest in the 90s.

Bin Laden and other Islamic extremist will likely try to fund Muslim independence movements in Central Asian SSR and the Caucasus region. Afghanistan is the USSR Vietnam in many ways. They won’t go back there directly that soon after leaving. The Taliban might still take over after they leave. The fall of Kabul would mirror that of the fall of Saigon. The Soviets won’t recognize them and would be openly hostile but nothing more then embargo, cut ties, and militarized border. Many terrorist and partisan activities in USSR in the 90s by Muslims are tied to Biden Laden. A surviving USSR means no “religious revival” in those places or great demographic changes. It actually strengthens Soviet Union in the long run especially as economy starts improving and recovery at turn of century for them(Putin and his oligarchs still might take power. KGB people are good at taking power. The only difference is the political structure and Putin would not work with the Orthodox Church in this situation. Mafia and corrupt government/business dealings are probably still an issue those. The oligarch would just have much less openly right wing elements).

Bid Laden and religious extremist are often blinded by their faith to the point of not understanding when they come off as looking bad. Bid Laden and many of them think they are doing “god’s work” but they don’t understand many Muslims from the former USSR and communist countries often aren’t even exposed to their own religious text. They just know their Muslim because that’s their family or people followed. Same goes for Christians and Jews too. Religion was often heavily censored or indirectly discouraged through various means in communist countries. That’s only going to continue to be true especially if they are constantly dealing with Islamic terrorism but what their fanatics don’t understand Muslims who actually live in these places will think their batshit crazy and think “this is what being a Muslim is!?” Many nationalist from these countries aren’t as nearly religious as Middle East or North Africa. They have been intentionally or unintentionally influenced by more Soviet/Russian culture. Muslims in the Balkans for example are westerners. They aren’t Arabs or from Afghanistan. They will resort to some terrible stuff too but that’s often because Serbs are trying to kill them and they aren’t the type to tie a bomb to their chest and praise the lord name while doing. They are like European nationalist at worse. At worse they will shoot unarmed civilians who they think could be a threat to them. They won’t blow themselves up and has a school for teaching girls. That is the big difference between Muslims who from former communist countries and ones from places like Afghanistan or Saudi. Soviet state atheism and propaganda is going to play hard on that. Instead of expanding Islam in USSR Bid Laden might feed into actually killing it there. Terrorism against unarmed civilians of no military or political value is an idiotic tactic. People can stomach you attacking politicians or military targets. People don’t like it but understand it more. That’s some what of a trend in the west. That’s why IRA and nationalist try to avoid involving civilians often times. It destroys your image. You dehumanize yourself for the enemy which is one of the worse things you could possibly do against numerically superior military force especially if that enemy is the USSR. Theoretically, US and Russia now could wipe some countries completely off the map with their conventional weapons. Not even using the illegal, chemical, or nuclear weapons against them. Just conventional. Surviving USSR will be a lot stronger then the federation and right next to a lot of those places unlike the US and can be even more ruthless. Partisans are smart for keeping the fight at home. The public arguably has more effect on how countries conduct themselves in war then international law.

This is really bad for Afghanistan if 911 happens like otl. USSR military would have been cut down a good bit in the 90s but like the federation they transition they become a more professional force and refined. It helps save money but also keeps them the second most powerful military in the world and not far from the US especially as things improve. One reason USSR fell was the over bloated military which makes it hard to provide all that stuff communism is supposed to provide people. They actually could have the money to improve social conditions greatly if they didn’t have so many damn tanks. Also no more Eastern Bloc freed up a lot of military and economic investment. A Soviet Union who doing well economically and who has a military that goes for Quality over quantity could arguably pass the US militarily. There location alone give them much faster response time then the US. Even with the struggles of the 90s a surviving USSR who recovers after will have a much smaller gap between the US then ever before in almost every category. The US will still be head at certain things but Soviets will get head on few things and close behind on others(US can only focus on so much at once. Soviets will focus on something the US isn’t just for a possible edge). Additionally, military downside would free up oil use and add in public transportation projects the USSR would have leverage over many nations in regards to oil. Think how that might screw over many Islamic terrorist organizations who get funding from individuals within these nations.

When 911 happens Americans will react like otl but Soviets Unions won’t be joyful over it because they see it as a disgusting act too but see it as ironic. The USSR is coming out of a economic depression in the 90s that saw increased crime and terrorism and political unrest. But Soviets go into the 2000s with hope(still many corruption and crime issues but economy is strong and growing which helps the oligarchy and whatever strongman or Putin popular support strong). Islamic terrorism has been one of the biggest growing concerns in Union. Instead of the religious revivals of otl you see a even bigger shift to non-religious and state atheism in USSR. The former Eastern bloc same as otl for the most part. The USSR is going to condemn the acts of terrorism that took place in the US but won’t shy away from pointing out how the US indirectly or directly caused all this. They likely have information on the US related to their actions in Afghanistan during the 80s. A lot of records got lost when USSR fell either intentionally or by accident. The USSR probably still has all that and had a general idea that US funded partisans in the country either directly or indirectly. They just didn’t have a clear idea but they aren’t dumb. Afghans don’t go from having ww1 weapons, horses, and swords to having ak47 and RPGs. The Soviets know which countries they are selling there weapons too and it wasn’t Afghanistan. They kept up with their stuff until they fell apart. They also would know how much of their equipment they would have likely stolen or taken somehow. That’s going to open up a lot of issues for Bush and many people in politics in the US. No conspiracy just example of the US throwing money around to the enemy of my enemy without thinking of the long term impacts of that. It makes them look more reckless then anything. Politicians honestly might have just underestimated the extremes there religious fanatics will go too. This is interesting for US politics because social conservatives will be called out by Soviets and the left here if the USSR brings up how many of those same people supporting those same extremist in the 80s which lead to terrorism in both countries borders. The democrats might be more hawkish and take strictly secular stance on all religions which can create interesting butterflies on American culture.

Since the Soviets are on the up in most things they actually can project more internationally again instead of staying mostly to themselves which they did during the 90s with the exception of economics and trade. They will offer to help US immediately for a variety of reasons. It do want to correct that defeat in Afghanistan. It is a show of strength and propaganda to them but they can make this look like a act of kindness and good will to the US. Many in America still feel like they won the Cold War after wall fell but the Soviets have survived but aren’t a threat anymore(until the mid 2000s at least). But many especially on the right would be unwilling to work with them at all but Bush doesn’t look good to many others either if he just turns down free help. The Soviets and US interest would overlap perfectly here and Soviets could be pretty agreeable and cordial about helping invade Afghanistan. Bush looks like a dick and ignorant if he just said no to help like that because that is more Americans who die in fighting. Many Americans will think we should just provide air and special op support while the Soviets actually invade. Americans know how the Soviets might deal with Bid Laden and this war but many would openly say that’s the reason they want Soviets do deal with them especially right after 911. Public Americans can often violent too but it is our lack on personal connection to the rest of world that often makes us indifferent to it. Make it personal with them they can become rather ruthless like Russia about the conduct of its military. The USSR can get away with a lot more stuff if the US looks the other way or even passively supports it. The Soviets are going to point out how they had women dressing how they liked and going to college when it was under there occupation then compare it to after. This will make Americans question many things. In the era of Digital and mass media people see much more into what going especially if Soviet Union has open up its market to the US like China but unlike China their citizens would be much more wealthy on average and Soviets wouldn’t be democratic fully but not as authoritarian as China. Not US level raw wealth but expansive welfare state and modest living on average. Soviet Union could at least make life stable and somewhat comfortable with people.

Afghanistan is screwed and probably so is everyone involved in 911. They have the USSR right on its border and US and it’s coalition of allies. The only thing keeping many Soviets troops somewhat civil there is UN and European military presence there. My honest opinion many Americans soldiers will look the other way when Soviets violate international rules and laws of war. Many Americans will follow them out of respect for orders and rules but many don’t personally agree with them and will look the other way when Soviets break them(think of the demographics that often join the US military). The US might honestly let Soviets do the dirty work to keep their hands clean. Some Geneva conventions newer rules are a bit idiotic. For example if a new partisan or terrorist shoots at you but drops his weapon and flee your not supposed to shoot and kill him in some situations by international law. The US is spying on many foreign countries. It’s easier to find terrorist when many use computers and phones or any technology. If the US military busts into a person house in Afghanistan or Iraq while he sleeping and with his family the most likely know that person is a terrorist. It’s a waste of time and money to kill incorrect target so they are usually pretty sure before doing that stuff but that is technically illegal by international law. He might be defenseless but that is when it’s the easiest to kill him which could be difference between life and death for some of those men. The US military is calculated while USSR is traditionally just raw power and force.

US and providing support to a modernized Soviet military will see Afghanistan invasion last a week or less. The US in otl knew where many caves and bases were at because they did have involvement with the groups that created many of them. Even a more professional Soviet military will be more bronze and size then calculated compare to the US but both together are a deadly combination in Afghanistan. Some of the Soviet bombs might be even better then US ones for blowing up all those tunnels and caves.

Resistance after the war would be a lot harder then otl. Even if the US still invaded Iraq, which might not happen if they are still friendly with USSR, Afghanistan would still have a good number of Soviet and US troops. On top of that they would also have British, French, UN, India, Pakistan, local forces, and whoever else. Afghanistan might be a good place for partisan warfare but those are insane. I would say Pakistan might lead to more issues in this situation with USSR involved because the USSR and Pakistan probably don’t get along. State atheism or non-religious and communism will make them hated by much of the Islamic world especially due to the history there(many countries hold grudges much longer then Americans). Bid Laden likely doesn’t make it out of Afghanistan in this pod. He had the US and likely USSR tracking him for years now. Same goes for others. He has not just one superpower but two after him. A Soviet gulag is much worse then Guantanamo Bay. Some honestly might flee to US lines and surrender to UN or US troops instead of facing Soviets after many decide fighting is pointless at that point but many Taliban and Islamic fanatics will fight until death or just try to flee and hide which would be much harder in this situation.

The government part might be the most interesting after the war in Afghanistan. The Soviets are more like a mix of China and US in foreign policy in some ways once they start to remerge as a global power(it’s big that alone gives it a good amount of influence). The communist stuff isn’t really a big thing anymore. It is more focused at expanding economically but using its military to police neighboring regions. They want allies and stable friendly borders. Afghanistan will be given a democratic government with multiple parties and Soviets would agree to that and even help make sure that takes place but make their own modifications to it. The Soviets would impose strict secularization in politics. Religion freedom is allowed but religion in politics in any shape or form is illegal so no Islamic political parties. Many traditional clothes especially women ones are made illegal in certain places and education of women is strictly enforced. The Soviets do a lot to enforce women’s rights even if that means less general civil rights. Local communist and leftist parties are propped up in Afghanistan by the Soviets along with many normal centralist and democratic parties but the Soviets influence elections more through bribery and funding. Their parties and country is more open to US business and trade so they don’t say much especially since the Soviets are keeping the country stable and open to trade.

It’s similar to US rebuilding Germany but they have USSR helping them this time. Islam going to be targeted hard in this pod. When the US and USSR split Germany they made sure that nothing like this would happen again so they got rather aggressive about changing the culture to something that was more acceptable to them. The only difference is back then either could agree what that exactly was. In this situation USSR isn’t as stuck on communism anymore but Islam is seen as a threat to them. Many in the US are inclined to agree or just want the problem to be solved however possible. The big issue with Afghanistan Islam and culture is often so tied together that would be very hard to change but they can’t really fight back in this situation. They lack international sympathy and have a large amount of foreign military presence much more so then otl. If education is encouraging strict secularization and if religion is shunned from most public life most will start losing their dogmatic beliefs in that faith with each passing generation. Good education and development of the nation prevents some people from becoming terrorist. Americans might completely pull out by some point if the Soviets got things settled then they just invest and develop the place. Much of this stuff isn’t serene. US and USSR want to prevent further issues down the road with this and preferably get something out of it.

The only big issues besides heavy religious oppression is Afghanistan might still having a large drug production problem. Drugs lords there often don’t like Taliban and religious fanatics which is a local support and funding base for both sides there. US has done this before. USSR could have still seen the mob grow powerful during the 90s and still be influential after. Drug use could still be an issue in Russia. The Russian mob would easily be able to work with the Soviet military to get drugs from Afghanistan and weapons. It’s really funny how much impact Afghanistan can have on the world. I think the bigger impacts is how this would change other countries.

This would really have a lot of butterflies and I’m trying to keep the point of divergence as close to the fall as possible and US history similar until the 2000s.
 

Sigfried

Banned
I have been actually thinking of a timeline involving a surviving USSR but my involves them more weathering 1988 to 1992. Preferably minus Gorbachev who wasn’t the most competent leader or reformer like some in the west like to make him out to be. The Berlin Wall and Eastern Bloc still falls and Soviet Union stays together but very barely. After fall of Eastern Bloc they might have to do a immediate show of force in some of the SSRs just to keep people from breaking away. The 90s are still going to be tough but this is where you might see Soviet Union modernize and reform itself a good bit. More economically then anything. They probably disregard many actual communist beliefs regarding economics more so then even otl China. They become more like state capitalism then communism. The problem with communism in a big country especially when it is educated it is hard to provide for everyone which isn’t too much of an issue if they are uneducated poor masses who can’t do or say much but Soviet Union actually had a lot of skilled and educated people all round. They aren’t like China or Russian Empire anymore. Economic reforms was arguably needed before political and social ones. That was Gorbachev biggest mistake.

But a surviving USSR would create many interesting situations and talking points once 911 happens or something similar in the US. Let’s say US still has gulf war like otl. This lead to otl reactions by Bid Laden and Islamic fanatics. The USSR used the gulf war as opportunity to go full 1956 in the SSRs to prevent dissolution and collapse. They get a lot of international criticism but US is distracted and it’s still the USSR even if they look weak you don’t want to test your luck with a nation that has nukes and looks like it is becoming desperate. Soviet Union is also trying to be as friendly with the west as possible right now in regards to almost everything else just to get them off their back about human rights violations that are taking place to preserve the Union. Nothing like Stalin purges. More like the ones in China after Mao and people getting thrown under the bus to save the USSR face or being used as scapegoats. The Soviet Union will be dealing with too many domestic issues in 90s to project but Afghanistan will still be on the USSR border which does open up possible domestic issues especially with unrest in the 90s.

Bin Laden and other Islamic extremist will likely try to fund Muslim independence movements in Central Asian SSR and the Caucasus region. Afghanistan is the USSR Vietnam in many ways. They won’t go back there directly that soon after leaving. The Taliban might still take over after they leave. The fall of Kabul would mirror that of the fall of Saigon. The Soviets won’t recognize them and would be openly hostile but nothing more then embargo, cut ties, and militarized border. Many terrorist and partisan activities in USSR in the 90s by Muslims are tied to Biden Laden. A surviving USSR means no “religious revival” in those places or great demographic changes. It actually strengthens Soviet Union in the long run especially as economy starts improving and recovery at turn of century for them(Putin and his oligarchs still might take power. KGB people are good at taking power. The only difference is the political structure and Putin would not work with the Orthodox Church in this situation. Mafia and corrupt government/business dealings are probably still an issue those. The oligarch would just have much less openly right wing elements).

Bid Laden and religious extremist are often blinded by their faith to the point of not understanding when they come off as looking bad. Bid Laden and many of them think they are doing “god’s work” but they don’t understand many Muslims from the former USSR and communist countries often aren’t even exposed to their own religious text. They just know their Muslim because that’s their family or people followed. Same goes for Christians and Jews too. Religion was often heavily censored or indirectly discouraged through various means in communist countries. That’s only going to continue to be true especially if they are constantly dealing with Islamic terrorism but what their fanatics don’t understand Muslims who actually live in these places will think their batshit crazy and think “this is what being a Muslim is!?” Many nationalist from these countries aren’t as nearly religious as Middle East or North Africa. They have been intentionally or unintentionally influenced by more Soviet/Russian culture. Muslims in the Balkans for example are westerners. They aren’t Arabs or from Afghanistan. They will resort to some terrible stuff too but that’s often because Serbs are trying to kill them and they aren’t the type to tie a bomb to their chest and praise the lord name while doing. They are like European nationalist at worse. At worse they will shoot unarmed civilians who they think could be a threat to them. They won’t blow themselves up and has a school for teaching girls. That is the big difference between Muslims who from former communist countries and ones from places like Afghanistan or Saudi. Soviet state atheism and propaganda is going to play hard on that. Instead of expanding Islam in USSR Bid Laden might feed into actually killing it there. Terrorism against unarmed civilians of no military or political value is an idiotic tactic. People can stomach you attacking politicians or military targets. People don’t like it but understand it more. That’s some what of a trend in the west. That’s why IRA and nationalist try to avoid involving civilians often times. It destroys your image. You dehumanize yourself for the enemy which is one of the worse things you could possibly do against numerically superior military force especially if that enemy is the USSR. Theoretically, US and Russia now could wipe some countries completely off the map with their conventional weapons. Not even using the illegal, chemical, or nuclear weapons against them. Just conventional. Surviving USSR will be a lot stronger then the federation and right next to a lot of those places unlike the US and can be even more ruthless. Partisans are smart for keeping the fight at home. The public arguably has more effect on how countries conduct themselves in war then international law.

This is really bad for Afghanistan if 911 happens like otl. USSR military would have been cut down a good bit in the 90s but like the federation they transition they become a more professional force and refined. It helps save money but also keeps them the second most powerful military in the world and not far from the US especially as things improve. One reason USSR fell was the over bloated military which makes it hard to provide all that stuff communism is supposed to provide people. They actually could have the money to improve social conditions greatly if they didn’t have so many damn tanks. Also no more Eastern Bloc freed up a lot of military and economic investment. A Soviet Union who doing well economically and who has a military that goes for Quality over quantity could arguably pass the US militarily. There location alone give them much faster response time then the US. Even with the struggles of the 90s a surviving USSR who recovers after will have a much smaller gap between the US then ever before in almost every category. The US will still be head at certain things but Soviets will get head on few things and close behind on others(US can only focus on so much at once. Soviets will focus on something the US isn’t just for a possible edge). Additionally, military downside would free up oil use and add in public transportation projects the USSR would have leverage over many nations in regards to oil. Think how that might screw over many Islamic terrorist organizations who get funding from individuals within these nations.

When 911 happens Americans will react like otl but Soviets Unions won’t be joyful over it because they see it as a disgusting act too but see it as ironic. The USSR is coming out of a economic depression in the 90s that saw increased crime and terrorism and political unrest. But Soviets go into the 2000s with hope(still many corruption and crime issues but economy is strong and growing which helps the oligarchy and whatever strongman or Putin popular support strong). Islamic terrorism has been one of the biggest growing concerns in Union. Instead of the religious revivals of otl you see a even bigger shift to non-religious and state atheism in USSR. The former Eastern bloc same as otl for the most part. The USSR is going to condemn the acts of terrorism that took place in the US but won’t shy away from pointing out how the US indirectly or directly caused all this. They likely have information on the US related to their actions in Afghanistan during the 80s. A lot of records got lost when USSR fell either intentionally or by accident. The USSR probably still has all that and had a general idea that US funded partisans in the country either directly or indirectly. They just didn’t have a clear idea but they aren’t dumb. Afghans don’t go from having ww1 weapons, horses, and swords to having ak47 and RPGs. The Soviets know which countries they are selling there weapons too and it wasn’t Afghanistan. They kept up with their stuff until they fell apart. They also would know how much of their equipment they would have likely stolen or taken somehow. That’s going to open up a lot of issues for Bush and many people in politics in the US. No conspiracy just example of the US throwing money around to the enemy of my enemy without thinking of the long term impacts of that. It makes them look more reckless then anything. Politicians honestly might have just underestimated the extremes there religious fanatics will go too. This is interesting for US politics because social conservatives will be called out by Soviets and the left here if the USSR brings up how many of those same people supporting those same extremist in the 80s which lead to terrorism in both countries borders. The democrats might be more hawkish and take strictly secular stance on all religions which can create interesting butterflies on American culture.

Since the Soviets are on the up in most things they actually can project more internationally again instead of staying mostly to themselves which they did during the 90s with the exception of economics and trade. They will offer to help US immediately for a variety of reasons. It do want to correct that defeat in Afghanistan. It is a show of strength and propaganda to them but they can make this look like a act of kindness and good will to the US. Many in America still feel like they won the Cold War after wall fell but the Soviets have survived but aren’t a threat anymore(until the mid 2000s at least). But many especially on the right would be unwilling to work with them at all but Bush doesn’t look good to many others either if he just turns down free help. The Soviets and US interest would overlap perfectly here and Soviets could be pretty agreeable and cordial about helping invade Afghanistan. Bush looks like a dick and ignorant if he just said no to help like that because that is more Americans who die in fighting. Many Americans will think we should just provide air and special op support while the Soviets actually invade. Americans know how the Soviets might deal with Bid Laden and this war but many would openly say that’s the reason they want Soviets do deal with them especially right after 911. Public Americans can often violent too but it is our lack on personal connection to the rest of world that often makes us indifferent to it. Make it personal with them they can become rather ruthless like Russia about the conduct of its military. The USSR can get away with a lot more stuff if the US looks the other way or even passively supports it. The Soviets are going to point out how they had women dressing how they liked and going to college when it was under there occupation then compare it to after. This will make Americans question many things. In the era of Digital and mass media people see much more into what going especially if Soviet Union has open up its market to the US like China but unlike China their citizens would be much more wealthy on average and Soviets wouldn’t be democratic fully but not as authoritarian as China. Not US level raw wealth but expansive welfare state and modest living on average. Soviet Union could at least make life stable and somewhat comfortable with people.

Afghanistan is screwed and probably so is everyone involved in 911. They have the USSR right on its border and US and it’s coalition of allies. The only thing keeping many Soviets troops somewhat civil there is UN and European military presence there. My honest opinion many Americans soldiers will look the other way when Soviets violate international rules and laws of war. Many Americans will follow them out of respect for orders and rules but many don’t personally agree with them and will look the other way when Soviets break them(think of the demographics that often join the US military). The US might honestly let Soviets do the dirty work to keep their hands clean. Some Geneva conventions newer rules are a bit idiotic. For example if a new partisan or terrorist shoots at you but drops his weapon and flee your not supposed to shoot and kill him in some situations by international law. The US is spying on many foreign countries. It’s easier to find terrorist when many use computers and phones or any technology. If the US military busts into a person house in Afghanistan or Iraq while he sleeping and with his family the most likely know that person is a terrorist. It’s a waste of time and money to kill incorrect target so they are usually pretty sure before doing that stuff but that is technically illegal by international law. He might be defenseless but that is when it’s the easiest to kill him which could be difference between life and death for some of those men. The US military is calculated while USSR is traditionally just raw power and force.

US and providing support to a modernized Soviet military will see Afghanistan invasion last a week or less. The US in otl knew where many caves and bases were at because they did have involvement with the groups that created many of them. Even a more professional Soviet military will be more bronze and size then calculated compare to the US but both together are a deadly combination in Afghanistan. Some of the Soviet bombs might be even better then US ones for blowing up all those tunnels and caves.

Resistance after the war would be a lot harder then otl. Even if the US still invaded Iraq, which might not happen if they are still friendly with USSR, Afghanistan would still have a good number of Soviet and US troops. On top of that they would also have British, French, UN, India, Pakistan, local forces, and whoever else. Afghanistan might be a good place for partisan warfare but those are insane. I would say Pakistan might lead to more issues in this situation with USSR involved because the USSR and Pakistan probably don’t get along. State atheism or non-religious and communism will make them hated by much of the Islamic world especially due to the history there(many countries hold grudges much longer then Americans). Bid Laden likely doesn’t make it out of Afghanistan in this pod. He had the US and likely USSR tracking him for years now. Same goes for others. He has not just one superpower but two after him. A Soviet gulag is much worse then Guantanamo Bay. Some honestly might flee to US lines and surrender to UN or US troops instead of facing Soviets after many decide fighting is pointless at that point but many Taliban and Islamic fanatics will fight until death or just try to flee and hide which would be much harder in this situation.

The government part might be the most interesting after the war in Afghanistan. The Soviets are more like a mix of China and US in foreign policy in some ways once they start to remerge as a global power(it’s big that alone gives it a good amount of influence). The communist stuff isn’t really a big thing anymore. It is more focused at expanding economically but using its military to police neighboring regions. They want allies and stable friendly borders. Afghanistan will be given a democratic government with multiple parties and Soviets would agree to that and even help make sure that takes place but make their own modifications to it. The Soviets would impose strict secularization in politics. Religion freedom is allowed but religion in politics in any shape or form is illegal so no Islamic political parties. Many traditional clothes especially women ones are made illegal in certain places and education of women is strictly enforced. The Soviets do a lot to enforce women’s rights even if that means less general civil rights. Local communist and leftist parties are propped up in Afghanistan by the Soviets along with many normal centralist and democratic parties but the Soviets influence elections more through bribery and funding. Their parties and country is more open to US business and trade so they don’t say much especially since the Soviets are keeping the country stable and open to trade.

It’s similar to US rebuilding Germany but they have USSR helping them this time. Islam going to be targeted hard in this pod. When the US and USSR split Germany they made sure that nothing like this would happen again so they got rather aggressive about changing the culture to something that was more acceptable to them. The only difference is back then either could agree what that exactly was. In this situation USSR isn’t as stuck on communism anymore but Islam is seen as a threat to them. Many in the US are inclined to agree or just want the problem to be solved however possible. The big issue with Afghanistan Islam and culture is often so tied together that would be very hard to change but they can’t really fight back in this situation. They lack international sympathy and have a large amount of foreign military presence much more so then otl. If education is encouraging strict secularization and if religion is shunned from most public life most will start losing their dogmatic beliefs in that faith with each passing generation. Good education and development of the nation prevents some people from becoming terrorist. Americans might completely pull out by some point if the Soviets got things settled then they just invest and develop the place. Much of this stuff isn’t serene. US and USSR want to prevent further issues down the road with this and preferably get something out of it.

The only big issues besides heavy religious oppression is Afghanistan might still having a large drug production problem. Drugs lords there often don’t like Taliban and religious fanatics which is a local support and funding base for both sides there. US has done this before. USSR could have still seen the mob grow powerful during the 90s and still be influential after. Drug use could still be an issue in Russia. The Russian mob would easily be able to work with the Soviet military to get drugs from Afghanistan and weapons. It’s really funny how much impact Afghanistan can have on the world. I think the bigger impacts is how this would change other countries.

This would really have a lot of butterflies and I’m trying to keep the point of divergence as close to the fall as possible and US history similar until the 2000s.

DEW IT
 
Northern Afghanistan, plus some smaller areas in the south, have majority populations fo Tajiks, Kirghiz, Uzbeks, and Turkmen. Though with Pashtuns sprinkled around, and looking at the Wikipedia page it shows things that suggest those languages aren't majority or something. I am wondering if it is due to politics? Anyways, would this CIS try and take any of their border lands for their own people or would they perhaps focus on having higher autonomy for them in Afghanistan? Or possibly for them making up a disproportionate amount of the leadership.
 
A really interesting read and thank you
One small niggle, the IRA targeted civilians throughout the mainland bombing campaign (albeit not exclusively) example being the pub bombings of the 70s
That’s was often collateral and they did prefer just to kill military and political targets. I am not saying it was good but much different from Islamic fanatics. IRA understood high civilian casualties hurt there movement in the long run. That’s why the British or government in Northern Ireland not warning civilians about bombs near the end of the troubles might actually be a legitimate claim by the IRA. The IRA would sometimes call the British telling them their bomb was planted in a general area just not exactly where. This see the civilian population flee the area while the military and law enforcement look for which is still a very dangerous situation for them. That bomb can blow with them all near it at any moment and some IRA people might be still hiding near by with a sniper or gun ready to take a few shots before hopefully fleeing.

Islamic terrorist often literally like the grunts from Halo. They will run in and shout before bombing themselves up in a random crowd of people out of nowhere which is stuff most other terrorist would even find insane. Most people aren’t for senseless death and rather fight another day when possible. That’s how you know religious fanatics are truly insane people. Many in IRA did not fear death but they are going to try to live when possible. Why die today when they can fight and do more tomorrow or later. IRA isn’t going to shoot up a Ariana Grande concert full of little girls. Even if some civilians die IRA and other European terrorist have clear goals. It is not just for shock value and fear tactics. Also I am pretty sure the ones they have blow themselves up usually aren’t their most educated and talented people. The ones who are smart and actually good at combat probably aren’t the ones being put in the position of suicide bomber most of the time at least right away. Also in otl the IRA did lose support when they were caught and accused of targeting civilians which they tried to say the British didn’t warn civilians after they told them about the bomb and general location of it(honestly could go either way there. No clear facts on it to my knowledge but I would not put it pass either side).

Bid Laden was wrong about the his enemies fearing death. At least when talking about US and Russians. Many of them don’t fear death they just don’t seek it and are very off put or disgusted by the actions of these religions fanatics. They don’t often understand it. They don’t agree with it but when communist did something mess up they usually understood the reason for it even if they didn’t agree with it or like it they understood it. It made sense to them. It’s the same reason people are often more disturbed by Nazism then communism. Communist could be cold hearted but with the exception of North Korea they usually did everything for clear reasons. The Nazis would kill the most random people due to having only a little Jewish. Many Americans thought the camps would just be full of political prisoners when they first got there but were surprise and horrified when it was very average people and kids.

They feel bad for political prisoners and many were actually respected for their encourage but many understood most of them had to say something to get put there if they are political prisoners. Even if the reason was a morally wrong one it was still a reason. Even the Soviet soldiers were disgusted and horrify by these camps. They liberated most. Why do you think they were so brutal once they got to Germany. After liberating Auschwitz it is hard for many soldiers to think clearly or have any sympathy towards the people he ties to this. He sees many of his very own people in these camps. Some regular civilians and even kids.

The Islamic fanatics aren’t as powerful as the Nazis were by any means or have their abilities but the logic above is still the same. If Vietcong only kills Americans in the jungles of their homeland a few things can happen even if it isn’t a actual military victory for the Vietcong. People at home will start wondering why the hell are our young men dying over there. They can’t do anything to us. We got our own problems. But if the Vietcong came here and set off a bomb in a crowd of hippies or random civilians that war would not end like it did and US war crimes might honestly go up more due to individual soldiers seeing these people as animals then the government itself. This is why Islamic terrorist tactics is possible a very self destructive one that ends up indirectly getting their own innocent civilians killed in large numbers. Once you start completely ignoring certain rules of war so will your enemy. Look at ww2, many did not use chemical weapons because they did not want a repeat of ww1. If it wasn’t for 911 the US honestly might have cut back it’s involvement in global military and politics. Many citizens started questioning the military industrial complex and if one so large was still needed in 90s. 911 convinced some people we still need it and provided the government for excuse for it.

I think Arab kings sometimes understand this. This is why they throw money at US and try to reign in the more militant fanatics because honestly many of them aren’t that far off from actual government in adherence to belief. Conflicts between themselves is actual more political. Many have similar religious beliefs the differences is many religious fanatics don’t like monarch system or they want to take a more aggressive approach towards the west. Bid Laden is a Saudi noble and former friends with the royals. The royals might not be militant and will work with the west but don’t think that doesn’t mean they aren’t far off from Bid Laden on religious views. Saudi actual look at as extreme religiously by other Arabs in neighboring kingdoms. This does present massive issues for them if USSR is still around and in Afghanistan. The US and USSR actually working together in Afghanistan might cause some serious issues with Arab monarchs especially Saudi.

This might be even worse if Iraq is Soviet friendly because that means no US invasion of Iraq but it does cause a lot of heavily publicized political debate in the US. Iraq like the Soviets will both point out how each been fighting these groups for years now. That wmd excuse won’t work here and they are allies or friendly with the Soviets so people in the US won’t confuse them with Bid Laden group like otl(the public here is often ignorant of much of the worlds politics but even they would know communism and religious fanatics aren’t friends. There own propaganda depicts Soviets as godless so you can’t label Iraq as Islamic terrorist in anyway). Same might go for Syria too. Those two dictators probably don’t directly help anyone in Afghanistan but Saddam and Assad could tell the Soviets where they might find these terrorist or their networks. Saddam would be happy to give out any information that will make Saudi and Arab monarchs look bad especially to the US public. Your bringing Cold War era propaganda/pr campaigns but with more modern mass media. The US doesn’t even look like the bad guy in this situation just straight up irresponsible and reckless. The Soviets will be sure to highlight the difference between Iraq, Soviet Afghanistan, and maybe Syria compared to Saudi, Taliban Afghanistan, Gulf kingdoms, and Iran who the Soviets don’t like at all unlike the Russian Federation of otl. The USSR propaganda about the US doesn’t even have to be exaggerate or twisted at all like it often is. They just have to state clear facts and make sure the US public is seeing it. Many Americans will be hard to convince Saudi isn’t enemy or at least worse then Iraq or Syria.

The Soviets and Iraq will be having a field day with this. Iraq will make a clear point by executing terrorist who have any ties to attack or any extremist groups. Same with the Soviets and Syria. Saudi either trying to pander hard to US to keep them friendly which might actually piss off many regular or powerful Saudis. Or they try what they did in otl which honestly won’t be enough to discourage the heavy negative media coverage they are getting in the US. Most of hijackers are Saudis and Bid Laden is high up and respected noble there. Iraq and Soviets also have a lot of oil too. If both are open to US trade and business Saudi and other monarchs are in trouble. The US won’t likely invade Saudi for a few reasons but they could cut ties and maybe even embargo them especially once they can get oil for same price or cheaper elsewhere. It isn’t a coincidence in otl the US is starting to work more with Russia now in otl. They still don’t trust them at all but willing to work with because they are actually more open to trade now then EU or many social democracies of Europe. If USSR is a mix of Chinese and Russian Federation in economic policy the US might be doing a lot of business there. The US can expand domestic oil production and get more from USSR and Iraq and maybe Syria too.

Saudi, Iran, and Arab monarchs might have to shift allies or lose everything. China would be there only big exporter option left. India likely friendly with both US and USSR by 2000s. Both coming at increasing odds with China plays into that. Japan another big oil importer strong US ally. UK, EU, and much of Europe is tied to the US and USSR in a variety of ways and honestly has to follow what they do if both do something together. Pissing off both is really bad for them. USSR sends a lot of oil to Europe too so them and US together can probably get them to trade and cut ties with the same people especially Saudi who many European countries already heavily criticize. The US and USSR would most likely try to isolate these countries into collapse instead of doing it the conventional way. Without people to send oil to many of these regimes are screwed or would have to depend on trade with places like China but China honestly might get isolated too. The US and USSR still don’t always see eye to eye but they are going to prevent the rise of a possible third superpower. USSR probably doesn’t like China for taking their place at the head of heavy industries and other ones they use to dominate. USSR and US together can rather easily isolate and contain most foreign competition unless some big happens.
 
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