A really interesting read and thank you
One small niggle, the IRA targeted civilians throughout the mainland bombing campaign (albeit not exclusively) example being the pub bombings of the 70s
That’s was often collateral and they did prefer just to kill military and political targets. I am not saying it was good but much different from Islamic fanatics. IRA understood high civilian casualties hurt there movement in the long run. That’s why the British or government in Northern Ireland not warning civilians about bombs near the end of the troubles might actually be a legitimate claim by the IRA. The IRA would sometimes call the British telling them their bomb was planted in a general area just not exactly where. This see the civilian population flee the area while the military and law enforcement look for which is still a very dangerous situation for them. That bomb can blow with them all near it at any moment and some IRA people might be still hiding near by with a sniper or gun ready to take a few shots before hopefully fleeing.
Islamic terrorist often literally like the grunts from Halo. They will run in and shout before bombing themselves up in a random crowd of people out of nowhere which is stuff most other terrorist would even find insane. Most people aren’t for senseless death and rather fight another day when possible. That’s how you know religious fanatics are truly insane people. Many in IRA did not fear death but they are going to try to live when possible. Why die today when they can fight and do more tomorrow or later. IRA isn’t going to shoot up a Ariana Grande concert full of little girls. Even if some civilians die IRA and other European terrorist have clear goals. It is not just for shock value and fear tactics. Also I am pretty sure the ones they have blow themselves up usually aren’t their most educated and talented people. The ones who are smart and actually good at combat probably aren’t the ones being put in the position of suicide bomber most of the time at least right away. Also in otl the IRA did lose support when they were caught and accused of targeting civilians which they tried to say the British didn’t warn civilians after they told them about the bomb and general location of it(honestly could go either way there. No clear facts on it to my knowledge but I would not put it pass either side).
Bid Laden was wrong about the his enemies fearing death. At least when talking about US and Russians. Many of them don’t fear death they just don’t seek it and are very off put or disgusted by the actions of these religions fanatics. They don’t often understand it. They don’t agree with it but when communist did something mess up they usually understood the reason for it even if they didn’t agree with it or like it they understood it. It made sense to them. It’s the same reason people are often more disturbed by Nazism then communism. Communist could be cold hearted but with the exception of North Korea they usually did everything for clear reasons. The Nazis would kill the most random people due to having only a little Jewish. Many Americans thought the camps would just be full of political prisoners when they first got there but were surprise and horrified when it was very average people and kids.
They feel bad for political prisoners and many were actually respected for their encourage but many understood most of them had to say something to get put there if they are political prisoners. Even if the reason was a morally wrong one it was still a reason. Even the Soviet soldiers were disgusted and horrify by these camps. They liberated most. Why do you think they were so brutal once they got to Germany. After liberating Auschwitz it is hard for many soldiers to think clearly or have any sympathy towards the people he ties to this. He sees many of his very own people in these camps. Some regular civilians and even kids.
The Islamic fanatics aren’t as powerful as the Nazis were by any means or have their abilities but the logic above is still the same. If Vietcong only kills Americans in the jungles of their homeland a few things can happen even if it isn’t a actual military victory for the Vietcong. People at home will start wondering why the hell are our young men dying over there. They can’t do anything to us. We got our own problems. But if the Vietcong came here and set off a bomb in a crowd of hippies or random civilians that war would not end like it did and US war crimes might honestly go up more due to individual soldiers seeing these people as animals then the government itself. This is why Islamic terrorist tactics is possible a very self destructive one that ends up indirectly getting their own innocent civilians killed in large numbers. Once you start completely ignoring certain rules of war so will your enemy. Look at ww2, many did not use chemical weapons because they did not want a repeat of ww1. If it wasn’t for 911 the US honestly might have cut back it’s involvement in global military and politics. Many citizens started questioning the military industrial complex and if one so large was still needed in 90s. 911 convinced some people we still need it and provided the government for excuse for it.
I think Arab kings sometimes understand this. This is why they throw money at US and try to reign in the more militant fanatics because honestly many of them aren’t that far off from actual government in adherence to belief. Conflicts between themselves is actual more political. Many have similar religious beliefs the differences is many religious fanatics don’t like monarch system or they want to take a more aggressive approach towards the west. Bid Laden is a Saudi noble and former friends with the royals. The royals might not be militant and will work with the west but don’t think that doesn’t mean they aren’t far off from Bid Laden on religious views. Saudi actual look at as extreme religiously by other Arabs in neighboring kingdoms. This does present massive issues for them if USSR is still around and in Afghanistan. The US and USSR actually working together in Afghanistan might cause some serious issues with Arab monarchs especially Saudi.
This might be even worse if Iraq is Soviet friendly because that means no US invasion of Iraq but it does cause a lot of heavily publicized political debate in the US. Iraq like the Soviets will both point out how each been fighting these groups for years now. That wmd excuse won’t work here and they are allies or friendly with the Soviets so people in the US won’t confuse them with Bid Laden group like otl(the public here is often ignorant of much of the worlds politics but even they would know communism and religious fanatics aren’t friends. There own propaganda depicts Soviets as godless so you can’t label Iraq as Islamic terrorist in anyway). Same might go for Syria too. Those two dictators probably don’t directly help anyone in Afghanistan but Saddam and Assad could tell the Soviets where they might find these terrorist or their networks. Saddam would be happy to give out any information that will make Saudi and Arab monarchs look bad especially to the US public. Your bringing Cold War era propaganda/pr campaigns but with more modern mass media. The US doesn’t even look like the bad guy in this situation just straight up irresponsible and reckless. The Soviets will be sure to highlight the difference between Iraq, Soviet Afghanistan, and maybe Syria compared to Saudi, Taliban Afghanistan, Gulf kingdoms, and Iran who the Soviets don’t like at all unlike the Russian Federation of otl. The USSR propaganda about the US doesn’t even have to be exaggerate or twisted at all like it often is. They just have to state clear facts and make sure the US public is seeing it. Many Americans will be hard to convince Saudi isn’t enemy or at least worse then Iraq or Syria.
The Soviets and Iraq will be having a field day with this. Iraq will make a clear point by executing terrorist who have any ties to attack or any extremist groups. Same with the Soviets and Syria. Saudi either trying to pander hard to US to keep them friendly which might actually piss off many regular or powerful Saudis. Or they try what they did in otl which honestly won’t be enough to discourage the heavy negative media coverage they are getting in the US. Most of hijackers are Saudis and Bid Laden is high up and respected noble there. Iraq and Soviets also have a lot of oil too. If both are open to US trade and business Saudi and other monarchs are in trouble. The US won’t likely invade Saudi for a few reasons but they could cut ties and maybe even embargo them especially once they can get oil for same price or cheaper elsewhere. It isn’t a coincidence in otl the US is starting to work more with Russia now in otl. They still don’t trust them at all but willing to work with because they are actually more open to trade now then EU or many social democracies of Europe. If USSR is a mix of Chinese and Russian Federation in economic policy the US might be doing a lot of business there. The US can expand domestic oil production and get more from USSR and Iraq and maybe Syria too.
Saudi, Iran, and Arab monarchs might have to shift allies or lose everything. China would be there only big exporter option left. India likely friendly with both US and USSR by 2000s. Both coming at increasing odds with China plays into that. Japan another big oil importer strong US ally. UK, EU, and much of Europe is tied to the US and USSR in a variety of ways and honestly has to follow what they do if both do something together. Pissing off both is really bad for them. USSR sends a lot of oil to Europe too so them and US together can probably get them to trade and cut ties with the same people especially Saudi who many European countries already heavily criticize. The US and USSR would most likely try to isolate these countries into collapse instead of doing it the conventional way. Without people to send oil to many of these regimes are screwed or would have to depend on trade with places like China but China honestly might get isolated too. The US and USSR still don’t always see eye to eye but they are going to prevent the rise of a possible third superpower. USSR probably doesn’t like China for taking their place at the head of heavy industries and other ones they use to dominate. USSR and US together can rather easily isolate and contain most foreign competition unless some big happens.